Investment Commentary: 3Q 2017

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

This summer came and went with no shortage of topics for investors to worry about.  Low inflation, natural disasters, and geopolitical tension kept the headlines busy.  Despite all of this, the quarter ended on a positive note.  The uptick in markets was spurred on by a wide-spread pick up in global growth.  Recession risks continue to remain muted as dovish global central banks continue to inject liquidity in the system, or only very slowly begin to pull back on the injections.  In general, economic data remains strong.   We remain watchful for a slowing, particularly in manufacturing, business and consumer confidence, as these are early indicators of the tide of the economy turning. However, they are still positive.

Diversification is coming back into style as international and emerging markets continue to perform stronger than their domestic counterparts this year.  The S&P 500 Index ended the quarter returning 14.24% through the 30th of September.  International markets are truly the bright spot with the MSCI EAFE returning 19.96% and the MSCI EM Index returning 27.78%.  Bonds ended the third quarter with a respectful 3.14% return coming from the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index.

Rates remain unchanged

In September, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged, but also announced additional information on how it will begin to unwind the $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October. 

The Committee intends to gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's holdings of treasury securities and agency securities--agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS)--by decreasing the reinvestment of the principal payments it receives from securities holdings. Each month, such payments will be reinvested only to the extent that they exceed a pre-specified cap. The caps will rise gradually at three-month intervals over a 12-month period and the maximum value of the caps at the end of the 12-month period will be maintained until the size of the balance sheet is normalized. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/policy-normalization-qa.htm)

This plan to shrink the balance sheet seems to reflect the Fed’s positive view of the U.S. economy.

Proposed tax changes being debated

Political stakes are high for President Trump to score a legislative win on what remains of his campaign promises.  In late September, he unveiled a proposal to slash taxes for individuals and businesses.  To simplify the tax code, Republicans have proposed condensing from seven tax brackets down to three (12%, 25% and 35%), doubling the standard deduction to help tax payers eliminate the need to itemize, and “significantly increasing” the child tax credit while also adding a new tax credit for the care of non-child dependents (elder-care situations).

Currently, many taxpayers use itemized deductions, claiming write-offs for things like charitable contributions, interest paid on a mortgage, state and local taxes. If the standard deduction becomes larger, fewer taxpayers will need to itemize, reducing the incentive to hold a mortgage or contribute to charity.

President Trump is also proposing to cut the corporate tax rate from 35% down to 20%.  A new tax rate would be established for pass-through entities which represent about 95% of businesses in the United States.  Generally when corporate tax rates are cut, markets perform very well in the year following the tax cut. The chart below demonstrates that after the rate cut for corporate taxes (Orange area below the line), the following 1 year returns on the S&P500 are quite positive (blue bar above the line).

Michigan 529 plan changes

In September, the Michigan 529 Advisor Plan, transitioned its program from Allianz Global Investors to Nuveen Securities, LLC.  Account numbers stayed the same and investments mapped over to similar strategies; if you had one of these accounts, the transition was seamless.  Some of the benefits of the change include an expanded investment line-up, more leading edge investment managers and lower fees.  If you have any questions don’t hesitate to reach out!

After several years of equity volatility near historic lows, this quarter we again experienced the speed and scale at which geopolitics can possibly move markets. We remain committed to the view that managing volatility is at the heart of proper portfolio design.  It is a responsibility we take very seriously and we thank you for the continued trust you place in us to help you with these decisions!

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®
Director of Investments
Financial Advisor

Investment Pulse: Check out Investment Pulse, by Nick Boguth, a summary of investment-focused meetings for the quarter.

Investor Ph.D Series: How Currency Movement Effect International Investments

Investor Basics Series: Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate, talks about exchange rates.

Of Financial Note:  Jaclyn Jackson, Portfolio Coordinator, shares a look at the asset flow for 3rd quarter.

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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This information does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material; it has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making and investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk; investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy or strategies employed. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Barclays Capital US Aggregate Index is an unmanaged market value weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset backed, mortgage backed securities with a maturity of at least 1 year. Please note direct investment in any index is not possible. Index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary.

Investor Ph.D: How Currency Movement Effect International Investments

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Investors with the patience to hold on to their diversified portfolio that maintains a component of international have likely been rewarded this year.  Before this year, investors challenged the advice of diversifying their portfolio away from the U.S. as international investments, represented by the MSCI EAFE, noticeably lagged U.S. returns in recent years.  The chart below shows how the MSCI EAFE has performed vs. the S&P 500.  When the gray shaded area is above 0, this represents a time when the prior three years of returns have been dominated by the MSCI EAFE outperforming the S&P 500.  When you drill down into specific extended time periods when this happens, you can see that much of the returns come from the impact of the currency return (the lighter green portion of the return).  You see in recent years the S&P 500 has significantly outperformed international investments. 

A weakness in the U.S. dollar has contributed to the outperformance year-to-date by the MSCI EAFE (as of 9/30/2017 the MSCI EAFE was up XX% vs. the S&P 500 was up XX%).  When the dollar is in a cycle of weakening against foreign currencies, there is a natural tailwind helping performance.  Coupled with the global economy strengthening and political risks receding due to a failed populist movement in Europe, this could be a continuing recipe for international investing tailwinds.

Take a look at the impact on stock markets around the globe during these periods of different U.S. dollar trends:

Source: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/04/how-the-dollar-affects-the-stock-market/

When the U.S. dollar index is retreating, Foreign and Emerging markets have outperformed and vice versa.  If the U.S. dollar continues its current trend of weakening or even levels out, we could continue to see the performance story dominated by foreign investments.

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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This information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Opinions expressed are those of Angela Palacios and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no assurance the trends mentioned will continue or the forecasts provided will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy or strategies employed. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. Please note direct investment in an index is not possible. Index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

4 steps to our Due Diligence Process

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

My friend’s wife is constantly putting him on a diet. He often appeases her by ordering taco salads instead of a traditional entree.  She assumes he’s eating healthy, but little does she know: some taco salads can pack as many as 1,700 calories and over 100 grams of fat! His wife might need to do her homework.

As important as it is to the success of dieting to understand what you are eating, it is equally important to understand what you are buying when investing.  Once you have identified your appropriate mix of asset classes for your risk tolerance and time horizon (your strategic allocation), it is time to start doing your homework to identify the appropriate securities to fill each asset bucket. 

Here is a summary of the steps we follow at The Center:

• Qualitative Review: We generate ideas through reading, conference attendance, peer networking and searches in Morningstar Direct.  The following criteria serve as a starting point.

  • At least $50 Million of Assets Under Management (AUM)

  • Manager tenure of 10 years or more

  • Bottom half of expense ratio in category

  • Manager invests in their strategy ($1 Million and up preferred)

• Quantitative Review: We review the performance and risk characteristics of investment options within the category.  Criteria may include but are not limited to:

  • Review of rolling returns to identify performance standouts over different time periods – 1, 3, 5, and 10 years.

  • Review of performance during difficult time periods (bear markets or periods of performance difficulty for the asset category).

  • Review of rolling statistics including standard deviation, alpha, beta, Sharpe and information ratio relative to best-fit benchmarks.

  • Review of upside-downside capture.

  • Review asset flows by category and individual security.

• Due Diligence Questionnaire & Manager Interview:  Center for Financial Planning’s Due Diligence Questionnaire is submitted to the short list candidates for completion.  Manager interviews for active strategies are conducted via phone conference or in-person interview. 

• Mock-up in portfolios: Position is added into a mockup of the portfolio to identify if intended outcome is achieved and what degree of exposure is required to help attain the desired outcome (percent allocated within the portfolio).

You can also view a simplified graphic on this process:

You can do your investment “waistline” a favor by doing your homework. Don’t be fooled by taco salads, make sure you are getting what you want when it comes to investing by having a defined buying process, or talking to your financial planner about establishing one that is appropriate for you!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

2nd Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

You may have noticed 2017 has been an easy year to open your statements. Markets around the world have been trending in a positive direction with only short-lived bouts of risk aversion. As a whole, volatility is extremely low and getting lower by the day it seems. U.S. markets have enjoyed positive returns of 10% for the S&P 500 so far this year as of June 30, 2017. The Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index has also been up 2.27%.  Overseas has been the big story of the year with the MSCI EAFE returning 14.1% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returning about the same. This strong increase has occurred despite headwinds from Brexit negotiations that are beginning and are expected to be challenging as well as concerns over high and quickly growing debt levels in China.

The Federal Reserve has approved one more rate hike this quarter, during June, which was fully anticipated by markets. One more has been telegraphed by the Fed for this year and would likely come late fall/winter if it does at all. This last potential rate hike of 2017 will depend on the strength of economic data over the coming months.

The Economy

Our domestic economy continues to grow slowly but steadily. Wages are growing, although, at a pace slower than historical averages. Inflation has been more subdued than expected, in large part because wage growth has been muted. Unemployment has continued to fall, and it has become harder to fill open job positions. Low unemployment ultimately should result in wages increasing, but, so far, we have not seen an impact here in a meaningful way.  Energy prices increased over a year ago, and rent and housing costs are on the rise. These last two points serve to take away some of our discretionary spending money which is important to bolster Gross Domestic Product growth that has come in below the Fed’s expectations of 2.2% so far this year. 

Brexit – One year later

A little over one year ago, the British voted to exit the European Union on June 23rd, 2016.  As you may recall, this created quite a bit of volatility in the market leading up to and immediately after the decision. The British government stepped in quickly, vowing to support liquidity at banks and emphasized it would be an orderly divorce. This action assuaged fears resulting in the markets here in the U.S. as well as overseas bouncing back to where they had been prior the decision.  So one year later, what has the impact been?

1. The British pound is about 15% cheaper than where it was last year. While a cheaper pound helps boost the country’s exports, it, unfortunately, serves to increase the price of imports causing inflation within the country. If you were ever going to take a trip to England, now may be a good time as our dollar is much stronger than it has been in recent years!

2. Business investment in the U.K. has softened dramatically due to the uncertainty surrounding potential future tariffs. The Gross Domestic Product growth has also slowed as a result.

3. Immigration is falling into the U.K. meaning many jobs are having a hard time finding workers for farming and construction positions.

Affordable Care Act—Repeal?

ObamaCare is facing a threat of repeal in the Senate. The Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, is working to revise the bill to be looked at again in July after it met resistance from some members of the Republican Party. If he can’t create a bill all Republicans can agree on, then they will be forced to seek a more bi-partisan supported bill, further delaying any change. If repealed, volatility would likely increase in the healthcare sector, but the market effects would be very dependent on the terms that pass. This is something we will continue to keep our eyes on.

While it has been a tranquil year thus far, it is important not to let the resilience in stock markets lull you into a false sense of security. It is easy to forget what downside volatility feels like when we haven’t experienced a meaningful pullback in so long. Rebalancing your portfolio and keeping risk in check is important particularly in this stage of a bull market, when it may be tempting to reach for more. Check out our recent Mid-Year Investment Update webinar if you want to hear more information on these topics as well as other headlines this quarter!

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Director of Investments
Financial Advisor  

Investment Pulse: Check out Investment Pulse, by Angela Palacios, CFP®, a summary of investment-focused meetings for the quarter.

Investor Ph.D Series: Why paying a premium for bonds may be ok.

Investor Basics Series: Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate, introduces us to bond options.

Of Financial Note:  Jaclyn Jackson, Portfolio Coordinator, continues her series on behavioral investing here.

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indexes. The index’s three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability. Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets.

Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-business-economic-costs-banks-one-year-vote-anniversary-eu-exit-a7802596.html

Investor Ph.D.: Paying a Premium

Co-Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP® and DewRina Lee

We aren’t talking Healthcare or Prada even, though you pay premiums for both. Rather, we are discussing why investors may pay a premium for bonds. Bonds are frequently purchased at prices below or above par; that is, at a discount or a premium. Bonds trade at a discount when the coupon rate is lower than the market interest rate, and they trade at a premium when its coupon rate is higher than the market interest rate.

For the purpose of this blog, we will be focusing mainly on the reasons behind why someone may choose a premium bond.

Take the following scenario:

Intuition seems to indicate that when deciding between a discount bond at a price of $970 and a premium bond at a price of $1,030, an investor should take the discount option. It’s always more fun to buy that Prada purse when it’s on sale right? But, there are times when you may want to pay the higher price, for example, if you want the latest season’s purse rather than last seasons.

But enough about my purse addiction, let’s get back to bonds. If the bond matures at $1,000, a discount bond holder who bought at $970 will be pocketing $30 while a premium bondholder who paid $1,030 will be losing $30, right? Not exactly. The higher price a premium bondholder has paid is made up for by the higher interest payments they will earn along the way. In many cases, the additional cash flow more than pays for the cost of the premium price paid up-front. Take a look at the following example:

Additionally, due to its larger cash flows, the time it takes to repay the initial investment is shortened. With all else equal, the higher the coupon rate, the shorter the duration. As such, premium bonds can be more defensive in a rising interest rate environment and potentially less volatile. Also, this larger cash flow allows investors to reinvest more in new bonds to capture potential rate increase. By no means does this mean that premium bonds are immune to rising rates; however, they may offer a way to capture the higher yields with some degree of downside protection in a declining market.

So why pay a premium? In essence, there are a few advantages of buying premium bonds:

• Higher coupon rate

• Shorter duration to pay off your initial investment

• Less sensitivity to fluctuations in interest rates

• Opportunity to reinvest at a potentially higher rate.

Of course, there are additional risks and financial objectives that are personalized to each individual. Contact your financial planner to figure out how bonds may fit into your personalized financial plan!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

DewRina Lee is an intern at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

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This information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete; it is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are those of Angela Palacios and DewRina Lee and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. There are special risks associated with investing with bonds such as interest rate risk, market risk, call risk, prepayment risk, credit risk, reinvestment risk, and unique tax consequences. The example provided is hypothetical and has been included for illustrative purposes only, it does not represent an actual investment.

Investment Pulse: Q2 Edition

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

It has been another busy quarter! Check out some of our meeting highlights!

Andrew Adams, Senior Research Associate to both Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist as well as its Chief Economist

The Center had a chance to hear firsthand from one of Raymond James leading research associates. Andrew Adams paid a visit to our office this month to discuss the global market outlook. Andrew discussed how Raymond James believes that the U.S. equity market is still in the middle innings of a longer-term secular bull market that is more reminiscent of the post-WWII era and the 1982-2000 bull market than that of the 2000s decade. In response to questions about how the market could continue to go up without a major pullback, Andrew discussed that although the market pullback in the winter of 2016 was not technically a bear market (the S&P 500, which is heavily weighted towards large-cap tech stocks, only declined 15.1%), the average stock in the S&P 500 did decline 25% during that period. Andrew explained that Raymond James remains cautiously optimistic about U.S. equity markets going forward.

Scott Davis, Portfolio Manager of Columbia Dividend Income Fund

Scott gave us an update on where he sees markets now. Debt has been steadily expanding which indicates to him it is particularly important not to give up on quality at this stage of the market. Eight straight years of equity market gains make this the second oldest bull market since World War II. The run-up in stock prices also makes stocks expensive relative to corporate earnings growth, a potential risk factor going forward in his eyes. As the margin for safety has narrowed, he believes that any miss on expectations is likely to be punished, which makes careful stock selection even more important. That being said, Scott believes the American consumer is in good shape, and an expanding economy continues to provide a favorable environment for the equity market.

James Cook, Equity Specialist from Hermes Investment Management in London

This was our first conversation with the London-based firm. We were excited to discuss their Emerging Market strategy. This is the only dedicated Emerging Market strategy with an ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) mandate available to us. He spoke to us about the importance to remember that Emerging Markets aren’t a homogenous region. The sector is made up of very different countries spread all over the world that are driven by dissimilar factors. Many investors think that it is a space highly correlated to movements in commodities, which is true for some countries and company’s but not all. They apply research held to a developed market standard that they apply to emerging markets giving them a bias for high-quality positions.

That’s what our Investment Department has been up to for the second quarter of 2017. Please stay tuned to other insights throughout our Investment Week!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions of Scott Davis or James Cook. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. There is no guarantee that any statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

Webinar in Review: 2017 Mid-Year Investment Update

Co-Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP® and DewRina Lee

On June 15, 2017, our Director of Investments, Angela Palacios, CFP®, and Portfolio Administrator, Jaclyn Jackson, covered some interesting topics on the current state of the economy, markets, and politics. Overall, it has been a quiet year with markets marching upwards steadily, with a bit of volatility creeping into technology stocks over the past week.

Here is a recap of key points from the “Mid-Year Investment Update” webinar:

• The Fed Meeting Last Week

  • The Fed approved its second rate hike of 2017 even with inflation running below the central bank’s target of 2%.

  • Diversification remains important in fixed income portfolios.

• Auto Industry

  • Despite record auto sales last year, the vehicles on car-dealer lots remained near record highs earlier this year.* The first quarter of 2017 saw nearly a three month supply sitting on lots.

  • Some producers have already offered buyout packages or announced shutdowns over the summer.

  • The automotive industry is known for its volatile nature, and even now is experiencing a lot of disruptions—electric vehicles, driverless vehicles, and companies like Uber are changing the auto industry.

• Markets

  • Are there any indications of an approaching recession? The index of leading economic indicators has been steadily growing since 2009 with no trend of flattening that you normally see when headed into a recession.

  • Markets have been said to be expensive.

    • Valuations of the S&P 500 are slightly above average for the past 25 years (17.5 versus 16 on average).

• Fiscal Policy

  • If tax cuts and infrastructure spending were to occur, they could offset the potential drag that rising interest rates may have on growth in the U.S.

  • How can this be achieved? Tax reform requires 60 votes (the majority vote is currently at 52) or through budget reconciliation, which can only be done once per year.

• Active/Passive Discussion

  • Not an all or nothing choice. The Center utilizes a blend of lower-cost index investments and we select active managers to complement the core investments to achieve a specific goal such as adding potential outperformance or reducing risk.

•  Trade settling cycle will shorten from 3 to 2 days in September.

  • Reducing credit and counterparty risk, increased market liquidity, lowering collateral requirements.

If you missed the webinar, take twenty minutes and please check out the replay below. If you have questions about the topics discussed, please give us a call!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

DewRina Lee is an intern at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

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Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP®, and DewRina Lee and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. *Sources: https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/auto-industry/new-vehicle-inventory-swells-in-february.html

What are Investment Policy Statements?

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Each investor is unique. You have your own attitudes, expectations, objectives, and guidelines for your investments. These factors are important to communicate to, not only your team of investment managers, but also to your family if needed (not to mention to remind yourself during turbulent times). An investment Policy Statement (IPS) that is revisited regularly can keep everyone on the same page.

We carefully craft a tailored Investment Policy Statement with you and review and update it each year or when something changes. We first define an asset allocation target (ratio of stocks and bonds) for your portfolio that is appropriate to help you achieve your goals while balancing your tolerance for risk. Also important is the amount of cash you need to hold within each account, carefully evaluating potential withdrawal needs coming in the next year. Lastly, we add your goals and unique preferences we should take into account while managing your investments. 

Unique preferences could include holding a position in a taxable account because selling would cause you to incur a large capital gain. Or, it could mean incorporating socially responsible (ESG) investment strategies into the portfolio. It could also mean excluding any investment strategies you prefer not to have included in your portfolio, like real estate, for example.

Laying out your goals and objectives is a great way to focus on and determine future success. Success in financial planning and investing goes far beyond beating a benchmark. Goals like making sure you can travel during the first 10 years of retirement or obtaining sufficient health coverage during the early years of retirement are things that cannot be measured by a stock index. These goals become personal benchmarks that you can track achievement of over the years.

It is not expected that the IPS will change frequently. In particular, short-term changes in the financial markets should not require adjustments to the IPS. Major life events, however, can prompt an update. For example, marriage or divorce, retirement or deciding to extend your working years, entering a nursing home or receiving an inheritance are examples of reasons that could prompt you to update your IPS.

Investors who fail to plan may then plan to fail! Developing an IPS is an important step to take in order to help you make rational decisions about your investments no matter what the markets may tempt you to do! If you have questions about or wish to update your Investment Policy Statement, please contact your planner!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP®, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

First Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

U.S. markets continued to enjoy positive returns for the first part of the year as the Trump rally extended through February. We began to see a small amount of volatility creep back into the market as March wore on and investors were left to continue to wait and see if there was any progress on economic and corporate friendly Trump policies. The S&P 500 ended the quarter in positive territory, up over 6%, while Bonds ended up just shy of 1% at .82% for the quarter, according to the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. Developed international was the clear winner, up 7.25% on the quarter, for the MSCI EAFE Index. Economic data continues to flow in, sending a strong signal that the U.S. economy is healthy and sustainable.

Europe headlines ended the quarter centered on the long awaited invoking of Article 50. While purely a political event rather than a market-moving event, the trigger marks a point of no return for the split between the United Kingdom and the European Union.  The two year countdown on Brexit begins—get your popcorn and settle in to watch!

Steady Headwinds for Interest Rates Ahead

The Federal Reserve is proactively increasing interest rates this year and has begun with the first interest rate increase of the year in March. What is overlooked, though, is all of the assets still on the balance sheet from years of quantitative easing (QE), the process which the Fed has used to increase money in the economy by buying treasury bonds and flushing the system with liquidity. 

In addition to raising interest rates, The Fed will also continue its reverse QE process by letting the bonds they purchased simply mature and roll off the books, essentially taking that liquidity out of the system. Below, you will see a chart by maturity date for the rate this will happen. Because of the lumpy distribution of maturity dates, it is likely the Fed may try to smooth out this maturing process through a combination of letting the bonds mature and outright selling. This would prevent any one month or year from having an outsized event of pulling liquidity out of the economy, leading to bond volatility.

Source: JP Morgan

Auf wiedersehen T+3! 

In March, the SEC voted unanamously to shorten the trade settling cycle from a maximum of three days down to two. In the day and age of instant gratification, investors have been left scratching their heads wondering why they have to wait the traditional trade date plus three business days in order for the cash and securities to officially change hands after they trade. That meant that if you needed to withdraw funds from your account, you had to wait nearly one week after selling a security to receive a check. That wait will now be reduced by one day! While the biggest benefit is for you, the invester, we will notice there also may be other “behind the scenes” benefits. Some examples include:  reducing credit and counterparty risk, increased market liquidity, and lowering collateral requirements. This is slated to take effect on September 5th of this year.

Investment Pulse: Check out Investment Pulse, by Angela Palacios, CFP®, a summary of investment-focused meetings for the quarter.

Investor Ph.D Series: 6 Points you should know about Technical Analysis: Fool’s errand or secret sauce?

Investor Basics Series: Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate, introduces us to Fundamental Investing

Of Financial Note:  Jaclyn Jackson, Portfolio Coordinator, continues her series on behavioral investing here.

It is important to remember, even with markets up, not to become complacent with your portfolio. While many investors become laser-focused on their statements when volatility strikes, it is important to remember there is a laundry list of items that are best addressed when markets have been positive for an extended period of time:

• Plan for upcoming cash needs

• Rebalance portfolios

• Make your charitable contributions

• Don’t ditch your plan!

If you have questions surrounding any of these points, don’t hesitate to reach out to us! We are here to help! At The Center, we want to help each and every one of our clients to take charge of their financial futures. Newsletters, blogs, webinars and more can be found on our website to help you do so. This is all part of Living Your Plan™.  Thank you for placing your trust in us!

Angela Palacios, CFP®

Director of Investments

Financial Advisor

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. This information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP®, and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy or strategies employed. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate bond market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. Please note direct investment in an index is not possible. Index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Investor Ph.D. Series: 6 points you should know about Technical Analysis

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

While most often investors apply fundamental analysis when picking a suitable security to invest in, a less widely used strategy called technical analysis could be just as important. 

Why would you use it?

Here’s the scenario: you’ve researched and decided, “There is a strategy I have to invest in.” Perhaps it is a company that makes a widget and you think, “This is the best widget ever made and it is going to change everyone’s life!” Fundamental analysis helps you decide if Widget Producer A or Widget Producer B is the better-run company that is worthy of your investment dollars. But, does it matter what price you pay for that investment? Yes! This is where technical analysis can play a role in your portfolio decision making.

What is it?

Technical analysis, at its most basic level, only looks at supply and demand for a security. It attempts to find a trend or pattern in the price movement and volume of a traded security and decide if that trend is more likely to continue or reverse course.

How does it work?

Understanding basic assumptions behind technical analysis can be a key concept. First, it assumes that markets are efficient at all times; meaning everything that can be known about a company is known by all investors and reflected in the current price at which it is trading. Second, security prices move in trends; or, essentially, an object in motion stays in motion (or is much more likely to in the future). Third, history repeats itself. Investor behavior that caused prior patterns to occur is assumed to still be present and will likely repeat.

Which indicators are most commonly followed?

There are many indicators you can pick from when conducting technical research. Most investors that do this type of analysis have their favorites that fit with their own unique investing style. Some examples are: moving averages, volume, Oscillators, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci levels, trend lines or relative strength.

Where can I find this information?

There are many resources that have a “fee for service” out there that can be used to conduct technical analysis. Yahoo! Finance, on the other hand, is a free resource available online for anyone to view. Their interactive charts help make it easy to view many of the most common indicators with the click of a button.

Can anyone do this?

Yes! However, it can take time, consistency, skill, and experience to be able to do technical analysis well; and even then, so-called “experts” can get it wrong quite often.

While there is no silver bullet in investing, blending both fundamental and technical analysis can help investors toward a potentially better outcome. Is this a fool’s errand or the potential secret sauce? I will leave that up to the individual to decide!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.