Beyond the 4% Rule: Five Strategies to Ensure Your Retirement Income Lasts a Lifetime

Contributed by: Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®

In a prior article, I focused on the popular 4% rule and discussed safe portfolio distribution rates over the course of retirement. While the percentage you are drawing from your portfolio is undoubtedly very important, other factors should also be taken into consideration to ensure the income you need from your portfolio lasts a lifetime.

Asset Allocation

It's common for retirees to believe their portfolio should become extremely conservative when they're in retirement. But believe it or not, having too little stock exposure has proven to do MORE harm than holding too much stock. While having a 90-100% stock allocation is likely not prudent for most retirees, maintaining at least 50-60% in equities is typically recommended to ensure your portfolio is outpacing inflation over time.

Reducing Your Withdrawal Rate

Spending less during market downturns is one of the best ways to preserve your portfolio's long-term value. When I think of this concept, I always go back to March 2020. When the global pandemic hit, the U.S. stock market fell 35% in only two weeks, resulting in the quickest bear market in history.

Due to the COVID-19-induced recession we were living through, we were all forced to dramatically reduce activities such as travel, entertainment, and dining out. This reduced spending for many, which helped tremendously while portfolio values recovered. This highlights the importance of reducing fixed expenses (e.g., mortgage, car payments, etc.) over time to provide flexibility. In years when markets are down significantly, having the ability to reduce variable expenses will prove to be an advantage.

Impact of Fixed Income Sources

Often, we recommend delaying Social Security into your mid-to-late 60s to take advantage of the over 7% permanent annual increase in benefits. It's also fairly common to have pension and annuity income start around the same time as Social Security, which could mean several years of drawing on your portfolio for your entire income need. In many cases, this means a significantly higher portfolio withdrawal rate for several years.

To plan for this short-term scenario with elevated distributions, you might consider holding at least several years' worth of cash needs in highly conservative investments (i.e., cash, money market funds, CDs, short-term treasuries, and bonds). Doing so helps reduce the likelihood of being forced to sell stocks while down considerably in a bear market, something we want to avoid at all costs — especially in the first several years of retirement (also referred to as a sequence of return risk).

Intentional Withdrawal/Distribution Strategy

Being highly intentional about what accounts you draw from and when you draw from them throughout retirement could be a game changer for your long-term financial plan. Chances are, our tax code will change several times throughout your 25+ year retirement. When it does, it's imperative to work with an adviser who understands how these changes could impact your situation and help you plan accordingly.

In some years, drawing from IRAs and 401(k)s and less from after-tax brokerage accounts will make more sense. Then, in other years, it will be the exact opposite. Prudent spend-down strategies, implementing Roth IRA conversions when tax rates are low, and strategically realizing capital gains at preferential tax rates have been shown to increase the "lifespan" of an investment portfolio by 2-3 years.

Part-time Income

Let's be honest – most of us don't want to think about work after retirement. That said, I'm seeing more and more retirees take the "retire from working full-time" approach for several years. In these cases, someone might work 15-30 hours per week at a job they enjoy (or can at least tolerate). This helps reduce distributions from their portfolio during a time when the sequence of return risk is at its peak. I find that most folks dramatically underestimate how valuable even earning $15,000 annually for 2-3 years can be in the long-term sustainability of their overall financial plan.

While working part-time in retirement certainly has its financial benefits, I've also seen it help with the emotional/lifestyle transition to retirement. Going from working full-time for 40+ years to a hard stop can prove challenging for many. Phasing into retirement through part-time work can be an excellent way to ease into this exciting next chapter of your life.

If you're within five years of retirement, I would encourage you to discuss these concepts and ideas with your adviser. Having these conversations early is advisable to ensure a well-thought-out plan is in place to help with your retirement transition.

Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Nick specializes in tax-efficient retirement income and distribution planning for clients and serves as a trusted source for local and national media publications, including WXYZ, PBS, CNBC, MSN Money, Financial Planning Magazine and OnWallStreet.com.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Center for Financial Planning, Inc is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation.

Wire Transfer Delays

Contributed by: Jeanette LoPiccolo, CFP®

Clients occasionally request a wire transfer from their Raymond James account. We're delighted to assist, but we want you to be informed about the possibility of an industry-wide delay in the process. While most wire transfers occur promptly on the same day requested, a few are delayed.

Who is impacted?

All financial institutions using the wire transfer system are impacted. 

Why is this happening now?

Recently the federal government and international financial communities have instituted a more comprehensive due diligence review process for electronic wire transmissions, including domestic and international. For Raymond James clients, we have partnered with Citibank to provide wire transfer services. These U.S. federally mandated reviews may cause delays at Citibank as the wire transfer sender or delays at the receiving financial institution.

How long are the wire transfer delays?

We do not have an estimate of how long the reviews might take at the banks, as in some instances, the turnaround times have ranged from several hours (most common) to several business days and, in isolated cases, have run up to several weeks.

I plan to send a wire transfer in the future. What can I do to avoid this?

If you're planning to send a wire transfer in the future and want to avoid potential delays, don't hesitate to contact your Client Service team member. We're here to review your specific situation  and suggest ways to reduce the chance of any inconvenience.

Jeanette LoPiccolo, CFP® is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She is a 2018 Raymond James Outstanding Branch Professional, one of three recognized nationwide.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Planning Ahead for Later Retirement Living

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

Clients often find their adventurous side once they retire. It is not uncommon for them to find themselves living in a different part of the country (or the world) from their family for at least part of the year to enjoy the benefits of a warmer climate and a more active lifestyle with others who share the same interests.

Planning conversations with these clients often make their way around to the topics of long-term care and the specifics of where they will want to live when they are older and potentially need care and who they want to take care of them. For most clients, they want to be at least living close to family later in life when they might need care, whether that means that family is providing care or they are receiving care from professionals and their family is just close enough to be able to see them frequently. That is usually the plan. We encourage clients to make those plans become reality well before they need care, but most people do not want to think about those things, so they put off acting on their plans.

Recently, though, I have had several clients starting to plan ahead (Yes! People are hearing the message!). They are taking the time to look at where they might want to live near their family in advance. For some, this might be an independent condo. For others, this is an apartment in a retirement community, a Continuing Care Retirement Community, or an Assisted Living Facility (if they are already experiencing care needs). The point is that they are thinking ahead and finding their “right fit” and finding the place they want to be before it is critical that they move. For some, they may have two places for a while and transition over time. For others, they determine it is time to move back “home” near family and give up the active retirement lifestyle with peers. Because they are planning in advance, they can determine what works best and take their time to make it work for them.

Planning ahead for where you will live in each of the distinct phases of retirement can be critical. Getting caught in a situation where you need to change your living situation or move to a care facility when you have not planned for it can be disruptive and challenging, at best, especially if you have yet to give it any thought. Plan ahead for your future long-term care and retirement living situation so that you and your family have the best overall experience possible in your later retirement years.

If you or someone you know needs assistance with these types of planning conversations, please reach out, we are always happy to help. Sandy.Adams@CenterFinPlan.com

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Sandra D. Adams and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Will Social Security Run Out in The Next 10 Years?

Contributed by: Kelsey Arvai, CFP®, MBA

Contributed by: Nick Errer and Ryan O'Neal

No, social security won't run out, at least not entirely. As a result of changes to Social Security enacted in 1983, benefits are expected to be payable in full until 2037. When these reserves are used up, continuing tax revenues are expected to pay 76% of scheduled benefits. What is causing the financial status of the Social Security Fund to shortfall? Americans have fewer children, live longer, and have an aging population of Baby Boomers retiring at a record pace, further lowering the workforce.

Many discussions have surfaced about how Congress will address the issue of an insolvent Social Security fund. Because we are currently in an election term, it is unlikely that any immediate action will be taken, but these are likely the eventual options on the table, barring any other creative solutions.  

Payroll Taxes may increase. The current Social Security tax rate is 12.4%. For most Americans who are W2 employees, this is split 50/50 between the employer and employee. An increase of 1% for both parties would bring the total rate up to 14.4% and substantially improve the program's state.  

Retirement age may have to go up. There have been no significant changes to the Social Security Program since the full retirement age was lifted from 65 to 67 in 1983. Since then, the average life expectancy in the United States has risen from 74.6 to 77.5 years old. A slight increase in the full retirement age represents how much longer people live today. Another increase would extend the fund substantially.

Benefits may get cut. Like any other struggling budget, there are two ways to fix it. One can either increase revenues or decrease spending. Rather than increasing revenue via payroll taxes to improve the state of the Social Security Fund, policymakers may decide to lower the maximum benefit individuals may receive. While this option would face scrutiny in the current high-price environment, it is certainly on the table.

In today's political environment, it is astute to structure your retirement portfolio to accommodate at least 30 years of retirement or longer. You can do this by creating a savings plan and choosing the right mix of investments (also known as a portfolio allocation). Individuals may rely on several fixed income sources besides Social Security in retirement, such as annuities, pensions, rental properties, or other recurring sources. Maintain at least one year of cash in a relatively safe, liquid account, such as an interest-bearing bank account or money market fund. Next, create a short-term reserve in your investment portfolio equivalent to two to four years' worth of living expenses, accounting for regular income sources or not, depending on how conservative you are. Invest the rest of your portfolio in investments that align with your goals and risk tolerance. The overarching goal here should be to hold a mix of stock, bond, and cash investments that can generate growth, provide income, and preserve your capital—balancing retirement income between social security and other income streams to create a more reliable financial future. Are you looking to implement a retirement income strategy? Reach out to us!

Sources:
https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html  
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/071514/why-social-security-running-out-money.asp  

Kelsey Arvai, MBA, CFP® is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She facilitates back office functions for clients.

This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author and are not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Every investor’s situation is unique, and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment or investment decision. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Mutual Funds vs. ETFs – What’s the Difference?

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP®

At the highest level…not much! Mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds are two common types of investments that group individual securities together into a neat package to make it easier for us investors to build our ideal portfolios.

The difference between mutual funds and ETFs shows up more when you dig into the details of their liquidity, tax efficiency, costs, and transparency (more information on each difference is at the bottom of this post for anyone looking for the specifics). ETFs do have some structural benefits compared to mutual funds, which has led to their faster growth over the past decade, but the total assets invested in ETFs are still less than half that of mutual funds.

I buried the specifics at the bottom of this post because, for most of us, ETFs and mutual funds can be used interchangeably to reach our investment goals. In fact, some companies offer the exact same investment product in both fund structures.

The major question: "Which is better?" If only it were that easy…

ETFs do have a handful of advantages compared to mutual funds. Two of the most significant advantages are that they are often cheaper and more tax efficient. But like all things in investing, the best answer is…"It depends." Here are some examples where you might lean towards a mutual fund compared to an ETF: sometimes mutual funds ARE cheaper, or maybe you want to invest in a portfolio manager who doesn't offer an ETF, or perhaps you believe an asset class is better served by the mutual fund structure than the ETF, or you are holding a mutual fund in a taxable account and now have a large capital gain that you do not want to realize yet, or your trading platform charges higher fees to trade ETFs, or you want to set up automatic periodic purchases and a mutual fund is the only way to do that.

Ultimately, your investment portfolio can only be perfect for YOU. We would love the opportunity to help you build a portfolio that will help you reach your financial goals. Shoot us an email to get started!

• Liquidity: ETFs trade intra-day, similar to stocks, so you can get a different price when you buy/sell at 10 a.m. compared to 2 p.m., for example. When you buy or sell a mutual fund, the price is determined at the end of the day.

• Tax Efficiency: Mutual funds and ETFs rebalance and trade their individual holdings throughout the year, and those trades may generate capital gains. Mutual funds and ETFs must pass those capital gains onto you, the end investor. The difference is that the structure of an ETF gives it the option to create or redeem shares or "creation units" that allows them to minimize capital gains for the end investor throughout the year. From your perspective, the capital gains don't just disappear when you hold an ETF. You'll still realize those capital gains once YOU sell the ETF in your portfolio, but it gives you more control over WHEN you will realize them, which can be important for your financial plan.

• Costs: ETFs are generally cheaper than mutual funds. There are a whole host of reasons for this, from operational efficiencies to commission/load differences. However, the average ETF is about half the cost of the average mutual fund when comparing expense ratios. There are exceptions to every rule, though, and trading fees/commissions also have to be taken into consideration when building your portfolio.

• Transparency: Mutual funds generally only report their holdings to the SEC, whereas ETFs report daily. This gives end investors more transparency into what the fund is actually holding and can help inform our investment decisions.

• Minimums and periodic purchases: Mutual funds often have higher minimums than ETFs, but you cannot buy fractional shares of ETFs, which may cause some operational issues in smaller portfolios. You are also not able to set up automatic purchases or sales into or out of ETFs like you can with mutual funds.

Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP® is a Senior Portfolio Manager and Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc.

Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author and are not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment or investment decision. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy or strategies employed. Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss.

Is the 4% Rule Dead?

Contributed by: Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®

In 1994, financial adviser and academic William Bengen published one of the most popular and widely cited research papers titled: "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data," published in the Journal of Financial Planning. Through extensive research, Bengen found that retirees could safely spend about 4% of their retirement savings in the first year of retirement. In future years, they could adjust those distributions with inflation and maintain a high probability of never running out of money, assuming a 30-year retirement time frame. In Bengen's study, the assumed portfolio composition for a retiree was a conservative 50% stock (S&P 500) and 50% in bonds (intermediate term Treasuries).

Is the 4% Rule Still Relevant Today?

Over the past several years, more and more consumer and industry publications have written articles stating that the 4% rule could be dead and that a lower distribution rate closer to 3% is now appropriate. In 2021, Morningstar published a research paper calling the 4% rule no longer feasible and proposing a 3.3% withdrawal rate. Fast forward 12 months later to mid-2022, and the same researchers updated the study and changed their proposed sustainable withdrawal rate to 3.8%.

When I read these articles and studies, I was surprised that none of them referenced what I consider critically important statistics from Bengen's 4% rule that should highlight how conservative this retirement income rule of thumb truly is:

• 96% of the time, individuals who took out 4% of their portfolio each year (adjusted annually by inflation) over 30 years passed away with a portfolio balance that exceeded the value of their portfolio in the first year of retirement.

Example: A couple with a $1,000,000 portfolio who adhered to the 4% rule over 30 years had a 96% chance of passing away with a portfolio value of over $1,000,000.

• An individual had a 50% chance of passing away with a portfolio value 1.6 times the value of their portfolio in the first year of retirement.

Example: A couple with a $1,000,000 portfolio who adhered to the 4% rule over 30 years (adjusted annually by inflation) had a 50% chance of passing away with a portfolio value of over $1,600,000.

We must remember that the 4% rule was developed by looking at the worst possible time frame for someone to retire (October of 1968 – a perfect storm for a terrible stock market and high inflation). As more articles and studies questioned if the 4% rule was still relevant today, considering current equity valuations, bond yields, and inflation, William Bengen was compelled to address this. Through additional diversification, Bengen now believes the appropriate withdrawal rate is actually between 4.5% - 4.7% – nearly 15% higher than his original rule of thumb.

Applying the 4% Rule

My continued takeaway with the 4% rule is that it is a great starting place when considering a retirement income strategy. Factors such as age, health status, life expectancy, fixed income sources, evolving spending goals in retirement, etc., all play a vital role in how much an individual or family can draw from their portfolio now and in the future. As I always say – there are no black-and-white answers in financial planning; your story is unique, and so is your financial plan.

Sources for this article includE:

• https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/article/journal/MAR04-determining-withdrawal-rates-using-historical-data

• https://www.morningstar.com/lp/the-state-of-retirement-income

• https://finance.yahoo.com/news/even-inventor-bill-bengen-revisiting-143000007.html

Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Nick specializes in tax-efficient retirement income and distribution planning for clients and serves as a trusted source for local and national media publications, including WXYZ, PBS, CNBC, MSN Money, Financial Planning Magazine and OnWallStreet.com.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Center for Financial Planning, Inc is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is comprised of approximately 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. It is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Don’t Be a Victim! Financial Abuse of Seniors – How to Spot Scams & Protect Yourself

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

As a financial adviser in an almost 40-year-long practice, I work very hard to keep my aging client base educated on anything that might be a risk to them or their financial plan. Financial exploitation, including current fraud and scams, rises to the top of this list when it comes to the older adult population.

With technological advances, including artificial intelligence and access to computers, cell phones, and other devices, it is hard to keep up with how we can be attacked, who we can trust, and what is safe. According to the American Bankers Association, senior financial abuse is estimated to have cost victims at least $2.9 billion last year alone.

What is Senior Financial Exploitation?

This is a crime that strips older adults of their resources and independence. You should be on alert if you see signs of theft, fraud, misuse of another person’s assets or credit, or use of undue influence to gain control of an older person’s money or property. Those are signs of possible exploitation. Older adults who may have disabilities, including cognitive impairment, or may rely on others for help can be especially susceptible to scams and other fraud.

Dr. Peter Lichtenberg of Wayne State University’s Institute of Gerontology has done intensive research on financial exploitation in the senior population. He recommends avoiding scams by being aware of PRESSURE:

Phone: Phishing or text solicitations to start a scam.

Requests: That you send money by gift card, wire transfer, or cryptocurrency.

Ex tracking: Your personal information (Social Security number, date of birth, account numbers) to verify your identity.

Secrecy: Scammers insist that you keep their contact with you a secret!

Spamming: Multiple emails or texts, hoping one will catch you off guard.

Urgency: Scammers insist you act quickly before you become suspicious.

Repetitive: Requests to provide money or information (to wear you down).

Emotional: Scammers appeal to your emotions to make you panic (“your grandson is in jail”) or become excited (“you won the lottery”), so you act without thinking.

What are actions you should take to protect yourself against exploitation?

• Make sure your estate planning documents are updated and that you have someone prepared to make decisions for you in the case that you are unable to make those decisions for yourself.

• Shred receipts, bank statements, and unused credit card offers before throwing them away.

• Lock up your checkbook, account statements, and other sensitive information when others will be in your home.

• Check your credit report at least once a year (www.annualcreditreport.com) to ensure accuracy and ensure there are no unauthorized credit openings.

• Never give personal information, including your Social Security number, account number, address, or other financial information, to anyone over the phone or computer unless you initiated the call and the other party is trusted.

• Never pay a fee or taxes to collect sweepstakes or lottery winnings.

• Never rush into a financial decision. Ask for details in writing and get a second opinion.

• Consult with a financial adviser or attorney before signing any document you don’t understand.

• Get to know your financial adviser and build relationships with those who handle your finances. They can look out for any suspicious activity related to your account.

• Check with your trusted financial adviser before proceeding with transactions if you are not sure.

• Check references and credentials before hiring anyone. Don’t allow workers to have access to information about your financial accounts.

• Pay with credit cards instead of cash to keep a paper trail. In the event of fraud, credit cards give you the best recourse for getting your money back.

• Feel free to say “no.” This is your money. Do not be pressured into making a decision.

• Trust your instincts.

What should you do if you suspect you have been a victim of financial abuse?

• Do not keep it to yourself — talk to a trusted family member or professional who has your best interests at heart.

• Contact your financial adviser, an officer at your bank, or your attorney.

• Contact Adult Protective Services in your state or your local police for help.

If you are helping older adults, what are the warning signs of financial abuse?

• Unusual activity in bank accounts, including large, frequent, or unexplained withdrawals.

• ATM withdrawals by an older person who may have never used a debit or ATM card in the past.

• Withdrawals from bank accounts or transfers between bank accounts that the older adult cannot explain.

• New companions accompanying the older person to the bank or financial planning appointments who have never been part of the relationship in the past.

• Sudden and uncharacteristic non-sufficient funds activity or unpaid bills.

• Suspicious signatures on checks or other paperwork.

• Confusion, fear, or lack of awareness on the part of the older adult client.

• Refusal to make eye contact, shame, or reluctance to discuss an issue or problem with their financial account.

• Checks written as loans or gifts when this is not typical of the client.

• Sudden change of address or bank statements that no longer go to the customer’s home.

• New power of attorney that the older adult does not understand.

• Altered estate planning documents.

• Loss of property.

If you suspect financial abuse, what should you do?

• Have a conversation with the older adult to try to determine what is happening; seek advice for these difficult conversations, if needed.

• Report the elder abuse to their bank or other financial institutions to help stop it and prevent its recurrences.

• Contact Adult Protective Services in your town or state for help.

• Report all instances of elder financial abuse to your local police. If fraud is involved, it should likely be investigated.

It is not uncommon to be vulnerable to fraud and scams. Older adults are even more susceptible than most due to things like social isolation, unfamiliarity with technology, cognitive decline, etc. Romance scams, grandparent scams, Medicare and Social Security scams, and new scams are catching us all by surprise and stealing thousands of dollars from unsuspecting seniors every day. Be educated, alert, and careful to avoid the risk of financial exploitation.

To keep informed of the most current ongoing scams, go to www.ftc.gov.

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Sandra D. Adams and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial adviser about your individual situation.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Q2 2024 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP®

When the circumstances change, our perspective evolves. This anthem of the past year highlights the importance of adaptability and openness to new information. But as much as things have changed this year, much has stayed the same. Megacap tech stocks are still driving the S&P 500 gradually upward for the year. The S&P 500 has had the best start to a presidential reelection year by logging 31 record highs this year and low volatility. Interest rates are still high. Stocks are performing better than bonds, while the U.S. continues to trounce international and large company stocks, which continue to beat small company stocks. 

Elections

The remainder of the summer and fall will surely be dominated by election headlines. Because elections can be divisive and unnerving, it's important to remember that markets are often resilient even in the face of the most unsettling election scenarios. Watch for an invitation to our upcoming election event to hear more details on this topic, but here are some quick observations:

• U.S. stocks trend upward on average in election years regardless of which candidate wins the White House

• Balanced portfolios historically help investors meet their financial planning objectives while managing risk over presidential terms

• It's time in the market and not timing that matters the most for an investor; sitting on the sidelines with long-term assets sitting in cash can be costly to a long-term investment strategy

If you look at average and median returns through a presidential cycle, you can see that election years tend to be strongly positive. Historically, median returns are over 10% in an election year, with average returns over 7% in an election year. 

Returns also tend to come more strongly in the second half of the election year, as shown in the chart below. This year has broken the mold with strong returns through the first half of the year. Usually, when this happens, there tends to continue to be strong returns also through the second half of the year.

What Has Led to These Strongly Positive Returns?

While higher interest rates and high inflation seem like a staple part of the economy now, it is easy to forget that we enjoyed decades of low interest rates, low inflation and globalization that drove those trends.

Inflation has resumed its slow march downward despite a small pause this year and some numbers that had looked like they might be turning back upward. It seems unlikely that inflation will accelerate and should continue to resume the disinflation trend. Now, most of the inflation comes from shelter costs, and we have seen rent prices level off and slow slightly. Rent prices starting to come down should help this source of inflation. You also may have noticed your insurance rates increasing. Car insurance has contributed notably to recent inflation numbers. 

Many consumers still feel the sting of higher prices because slowing inflation only means prices aren't going up at the pace they were. The price increases we experienced over the past several years are here to stay and will need to be permanently factored into budgets going forward. Many households have found substitutes by shopping around at bargain retailers, and some have been lucky enough to experience wage inflation (although not enough to offset economic inflation.

Interest Rates and The Fed

It is hard to talk about inflation without discussing The Federal Reserve and the current interest rate environment. As of the end of the quarter, the 1-year treasury rate was ~5.1%, and the 10-year treasury rate was ~4.4%. You are still getting paid MORE in short-term bonds than you are in longer-term bonds – that is strange! In a normal interest rate environment, you would get a higher coupon from longer bonds because, in return, you are taking on more risk and uncertainty from the longer time until maturity.

This environment has made it much more attractive to hold money market funds, CDs, and other short-term instruments, BUT those are not without risks of their own. If the 10-year rate falls, for example, then the risk of being in the short-term bond is that you will miss out on the price gains of the 10-year bond, and if short-term rates fall as well, then you will have to reinvest your money at a lower interest rate once your bond matures. Without knowing the path of interest rates going forward, there is no way to know with certainty which type of bond will outperform. However, we are here to help make sure your portfolio is positioned well for YOUR financial plan.

Speaking of the path of interest rates, despite inflation heading in the direction that the Fed wants, they kept the Fed Funds rate steady at the same rate as it has been for almost the past year: 5.25-5.5%. There are advocates on each side of the argument saying that they should have cut rates already OR that they should even keep further hikes on the table. Jerome Powell continues to stress data dependence and their commitment to the 2% inflation target, and this sentiment is shown in bond rates as rate cut expectations have continually been priced out of the market year-to-date. No one has control over inflation numbers, the Fed, interest rates, or the stock market – you have to  invest given the hand you are dealt.

AI and Meme Stocks

Several investment crazes have filtered into this stock market rally; some have long-term validity, and some don't. The evolving landscape surrounding artificial intelligence has strongly impacted any company investing heavily in it. Nvidia corporation has been the poster child of a rally surrounding artificial intelligence, which has been up very strongly this year, even though it has recently pulled back some. Nvidia is viewed as a pioneer in the space as its business shifted from gaming consoles to data centers where its chips now power large language models like ChatGPT.  Meanwhile, Gamestop found itself in the middle of the meme stock craze again. While returns attributed to meme stock hype are usually short-lived, the idea of social media heavily influencing trading performance is something the markets are still trying to make sense of. While investing in a long-term productivity enhancement like artificial intelligence can drive long-term fundamental returns, meme stocks are more about hype and short-term volatility.

Hopefully, you take a few moments to check out the Olympics this month. I am often in awe of the amazing talent seen from around the world. That kind of talent comes from a lifetime of diligence and hard work, much like successful investing. Natural ability or luck can only take you so far and can't be counted on. Athletes must train in various muscle groups and mental stamina to be successful. Much like athletes rely on diversified training in investing, we rely on asset diversification, good investor behavior, and consistent saving over time to reach our finish line. We are here to help ensure your investments are helping you reach the finish line no matter what the market environment looks like. Don't ever hesitate to reach out with any questions you may have.

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP® is a Senior Portfolio Manager and Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and Nick Boguth, CFA®, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

ATTENTION: Important Information for Owners of Corporations, LLC’s, and Other Business Entities

Contributed by: Michael Brocavich, CFP®, MBA

Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) - Report beneficial ownership information to FinCEN by January 1, 2025

Why was this reporting requirement imposed?

The CTA is mainly an anti-money laundering law and was enacted by Congress to protect national interests and better enable efforts to counter illegal acts. Entities that qualify will have to report information to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) by January 1, 2025. FinCEN is part of the U.S. Department of Treasury.

Who is impacted?

Every corporation, LLC, or other entity created by the filing of a document with a Secretary of State or similar office under the law of a state or Indian tribe.

What information do I need to provide?

To complete the filing through FinCEN, the below information is required:

• Information about the company: Name, EIN, business address, and incorporation date

• Information about the company’s beneficial owners: Name, address, and photo documentation of a driver’s license or passport

What do I need to do?

Report the required information to FinCEN before the January 1, 2025, deadline by using FinCEN’s BOI e-filing website. You are able to report this information directly to FinCEN at no charge, or you can authorize an accountant to file on your behalf.

For those that have created an entity this year, there is a requirement to file within 90 days of creation. 

What resources are available?

The following resources are available through FinCEN’s website:

• FAQs

• Small entity compliance guide

• Quick reference guide

What happens next?

We’re aware of the pending legal challenges related to the CTA, including the recent ruling by the U.S. District Court for the District of Alabama. Under our understanding, the CTA reporting requirements still stand as-is.

Questions?

If you have any questions about the requirements for your specific situation, we encourage you to consult with your attorney.

Michael Brocavich, CFP®, MBA is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He has an extensive background in both personal and corporate finance.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Michael Brocavich and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc® Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Managing Finances for an Aging Parent

Contributed by: Josh Bitel, CFP®

Being a child of an aging parent can often come with some unexpected responsibilities. As the people in our lives start to get older, an unfortunate reality is that they may need some help with managing their money. Whether making decisions on behalf of a parent, helping organize and consolidate accounts, making sure debts are paid on time, or sorting out an estate – this duty may bring forth some difficult decisions. Below are some ideas to hopefully help make this transition a bit easier.

Consider Establishing Power of Attorney

A power of attorney is a legal document that allows someone else to act on your behalf. This document is one of the "Big Four" estate planning documents that financial planners recommend everyone to consider. This document can and should only be granted when a parent is competent and able to make the decision. It does not mean that a power of attorney has complete control of their lives, but having one in place can help save time and money for family members who would otherwise have to go to court and be appointed if mom or dad should become incapacitated.

Zoom Out and Think "Big Picture"

Seemingly small things that come easy to younger generations may not be commonplace with our parents. Simply switching bills to auto-pay or income to be directly deposited into a bank account can go a long way toward simplifying and organizing monthly cash flow for mom or dad. Aging parents likely also have different time horizons, goals, and liquidity needs than their children. These differences must be taken into consideration when beginning to manage a parent's assets – more stable, income-producing investments often make more financial sense than stocks for aging folks, for example.

Leverage Professionals

Mom and/or dad may work with a financial planner or CPA who has known them for long enough to help make sense of their situation. It is important to understand that handing over the reins of managing the financial household can be a stressful transition for parents; leveraging the individuals in their lives who they have trusted to oversee these matters in the past can help you piece together this puzzle. If mom/dad doesn't have a trusted advisor in their corner, consider using yours or hiring one to help. If your parents do not already have an estate plan in place (see the "big four" linked above), consider partnering with an estate planning attorney to draft these documents. This will allow mom and dad to make sure they are transferring their assets to exactly who they want, when they want, and how they want. Otherwise, the state will choose their estate plan for them!

Be Aware of Emotions

Not only can needing children to help manage the household finances be a stressful time for parents, but siblings can also have a hard time coming to grips with seeing their parent's age. When having these conversations with mom, dad, brother, or sister – consider leaning on the idea that this doesn't mean they are incapable of managing their own affairs, but simply that you want to help take the burden off so they can enjoy their later years and not worry about trivial matters like paying bills and managing income.

There is no sugarcoating these kinds of conversations with family. Proud, aging parents will want to be independent as long as possible, and siblings may not want to impose on mom and dad's financial matters. Leading with the right approach and a careful plan of action can help alleviate some of these stressors and help simplify life for all involved. If you are considering having these difficult discussions and are interested in guidance, I encourage you to contact a trusted advisor such as a Certified Financial Planner™.

Josh Bitel, CFP® is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He conducts financial planning analysis for clients and has a special interest in retirement income analysis.

Opinions expressed in the attached article are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.