Elections and Markets

Elections and the Markets: Landslide victories and divided governments

 While I was only in grade school at the time, many of you may remember the landslide victory of Ronald Reagan in 1984.  He not only won 59% of the popular vote, he also had the highest number of electoral votes (525) over Walter Mondale.  If you were lucky enough to be an investor at this time, you will remember this was the start of a strong bull market run for domestic stocks.  But are landslide victories always this good for investors? 

The short answer is “no,” but there have not been enough landslide victories to get a good sample set to draw conclusions.  The markets don’t necessarily like them because overwhelming victories by either party means the politician could have more power to invoke change and that could mean potentially higher economic policy risk resulting in higher inflation or interest rates on the horizon.

A divided government can alleviate much of this concern as it brings with it the benefits of legislative check and balances.  During Reagan’s era, Democrats controlled the House while Republicans were the majority in the Senate for 6 of his 8 years as President. All parties had to work together to create the successful policies like the 25% across the board tax reduction, deregulation and corporate tax cuts that stimulated the economy and markets onward and upward.

So how does this play out in the 2012 election?  It may feel like the election is close, but consider that the GOP still hasn’t officially nominated a candidate.  Polls tend to favor Obama against presumptive nominee Mitt Romney, but there are still four important months left of campaigning.  It doesn’t appear, at this point in the race, as though a win will be a Reagan-like landslide.  What it will mean for the markets remains as much of a mystery as which candidate will win on November 6th.

Source: FederatedInvestors.com


The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.  Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.  Any opinions are those of RJFS or Raymond James.  Past performance may not be indicative of future results.

Elections and the Markets: Better returns on the horizon?

 In 2012, we either re-elect a Democrat or newly elect a Republican—history shows either can be a sweet spot for stocks. Stocks have averaged 14.5% historically in election years a Democrat is re-elected and 18.8% when a Republican is newly elected.

Source: Global Financial Data, Inc. S&P total return as of 12/31/10

When looking at the above returns, it may be hard to believe that we could end up with those kinds of returns by the end of the year … especially with the strong pullback we have seen recently.  In light of this recent pullback in the markets, both domestically and internationally, it is important to revisit a chart we have shared before.  It serves as an important reminder of the volatility experienced each year and the returns that investors end up having the potential to earn despite these pullbacks.

Of course you have no control over the market’s ups and downs or who gets elected, aside from your vote, to serve as the President of the United States, but you can be better prepared to weather these volatile cycles if you focus on factors you can control like staying fully invested.


The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that are generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.  Inclusion of this index is for illustrative purposes only.  Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and individual investor’s results will vary.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.  Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.  Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc., and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James.