The Center to Observe Upcoming Juneteenth Holiday

Contributed by: Kelsey Arvai, CFP®, MBA

Contributed by: Michael Brocavich, CFP®, MBA

This year, Juneteenth will be observed on Wednesday, June 19th. The Center, Raymond James, and public trading markets, including NYSE, NASDAQ, Chicago Stock Exchange and bond, unit investment trust, options and mutual fund markets will all be closed in observance.

Juneteenth (which stands for “June nineteenth”) commemorates the day in 1865 that federal troops arrived in Galveston, Texas – months after the end of the civil war— to take control of the state and ensure that all enslaved people be freed. This came over two years after the signing of the Emancipation Proclamation. Although emancipation did not happen overnight for all the enslaved people in Texas, celebrations broke out among the newly freed, and Juneteenth was born. Slavery was formally abolished with the adoption of the 13th Amendment in December 1865.

Juneteenth signifies a historic day for Black Americans and is an important day for all Americans to observe as a part of our collective history. A landmark for social equity, we honor this day to commemorate Black freedom; reflect on how far we’ve come since; and acknowledge that work still needs to be done in the pursuit of social equity.

Kelsey Arvai, CFP®, MBA is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She facilitates back office functions for clients.

Michael Brocavich, CFP®, MBA is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He has an extensive background in both personal and corporate finance.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc.

The Center Participates in Money Smart Week!

Contributed by: Kelsey Arvai, CFP®, MBA

Contributed by: Jeanette LoPiccolo, CFP®

This year, Money Smart Week was observed in April (the 15th to the 21st)! In honor of this campaign, The Center was delighted to co-sponsor the Michigan Council on Economic Education's 2024 Personal Finance Challenge on April 15th. The event is an exciting competition between local high school students who are all about personal finance. The teams are provided with a case study of a typical family and their financial situation, then asked to provide their recommendations in a 10-minute presentation. The students take turns explaining different areas for improvement, the options, and the benefits. The experience highlights the importance of making smart personal financial choices and career opportunities in the financial planning industry.

Our team was pleased to provide coaching to the teams, judges to the competition, and a lively quiz bowl announcer to the event. We enjoyed the opportunity to participate and have been delighted to see improvement in the team's presentations since last year. 

In addition to Money Smart Week – The Center Summer Internship Program is a valuable gateway for young individuals aspiring to enter the financial planning industry. We offer a dynamic platform where theoretical knowledge meets real-world application. Our program provides hands-on experience for college-aged students to discover a deeper understanding of the significance of making astute financial decisions through mentorship and practical exposure. Through case studies – interns can grapple with the nuances of financial planning and begin to understand the complexities of each comprehensive financial plan. Our program's goal is to shed light on the diverse roles and pathways within the Financial Industry, help inspire young professionals by refining their skills, and give clarity on their career trajectory to allow them to make informed decisions about their future in the financial realm and beyond (both personally and professionally). 

Michael Brocavich, CFP®, MBA, Matt Trujillo, CFP®, and Jeanette LoPiccolo, CFP® attending the Michigan Council on Economic Education's 2024 Personal Finance Challenge on April 15th.

Kelsey Arvai, MBA, CFP® is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She facilitates back office functions for clients.

Jeanette LoPiccolo, CFP® is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She is a 2018 Raymond James Outstanding Branch Professional, one of three recognized nationwide.

Opinions expressed in the attached article are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

The Center was a sponsor of the Michigan Council on Economic Education (MCEE) Personal Finance Competition. MCEE is not affiliated with and does not endorse the people, products or services of Raymond James or The Center.

Is My Pension Taxable in Michigan?

Contributed by: Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™

In 2023, a tax relief bill many are calling “Lowering MI Costs” was signed into law that will eventually phase out state tax on pensions (both public and private) and other retirement income for many Michigan residents! As with many laws, however, the timeline for implementation and how and when this law will affect everyone can be confusing. Ultimately, the amount that can be deducted depends on when you were born and is adjusted incrementally over the next few years. I’ve outlined below what you can expect based on the year you were born. 

First, it’s important to note that there is no change for those born in 1945 and before. The maximum allowed deduction can still be claimed each year. The bill will also allow those taxpayers collecting a pension for service as a public police or fire department employee (including corrections officers and state police) to claim the same full deduction as those born in 1945 and prior. For 2023, that amount is $61,518 for single filers and $123,036 for joint filers.

For those born after 1945, however, the amount that can be deducted varies based on the year you were taken. By 2026, everyone will be allowed to deduct the full amount, just as those born before 1945 do now. 

2023 

• For those born between 1946 and 1952:  Taxpayers will choose between claiming the current exemption of $20,000 for single filers or $40,000 for joint filers, or, under the new law, they can deduct up to 25% of the max 2023 deduction amount (Single Filers: $61,518 x .25 = $15,379.50; Joint Filers: $123,036 x .25 = $30,759).

• For those born between 1953 and 1958: Single filers can deduct up to 25% of the 2023 amount of $61,518 ($15,379.50), Joint Filers can deduct up to 25% of the 2023 amount of $123,036 (30,759). Under previous law, there was no deduction allowed. 

• For those born 1959 and after:  No deduction allowed.

2024  

• For those born between 1946 and 1952:  Taxpayers will choose between claiming the current exemption of $20,000 for single filers or $40,000 for joint filers, or under the new law, Single and Joint filers can deduct up to 50% of the 2024 maximum deduction amount.

• For those born between 1953 and 1962:  Can deduction up to 50% of the maximum deduction allowed in 2024.

• For those born in 1963 and after: No deduction allowed.

2025

• For those born between 1946 and 1952:  Taxpayers will get to choose between claiming the current exemption of $20,000 for single filers or $40,000 for joint filers, or under the new law, Single and Joint filers can deduct up to 75% of the 2025 maximum deduction amount.

• For those born between 1953 and 1966:  Can deduct up to 75% of the maximum deduction allowed in 2025.

• For those born in 1967 and after: No deduction allowed.

2026 

• For all taxpayers: Full Deduction will be allowed for everyone!

The Bill noted that as it is currently, the deduction available for joint returns will be based on the older spouse’s date of birth. If you have any questions about your pension or how this law will impact you, we are here to help! 

Source: House Bill 4001 (2023): http://legislature.mi.gov/doc.aspx?2023-HB-4001

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC® is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statement, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

24800 DENSO DRIVE, STE 300, SOUTHFIELD, MI 48033 | 248.948.7900

Raymond James does not provide tax advice. Please note, changes in tax laws may occur at any time and could have a substantial impact upon each person's situation. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. This document is a summary only and not meant to represent all provisions within the Lowering MI Cost plan.

Q4 2023 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP®

There were many reasons the fourth quarter of 2023 could have been weak. After two years of revenge spending of pent-up household COVID savings, the consumer seemed like they could have run out of steam, but the Christmas spending season was strong, and consumer confidence grew. The strength in the labor market has slowed down, and jobs are being added at a slower pace, but unemployment is creeping down and not up. While much of the population is still enjoying their low mortgage or auto loan rates that have been locked in, those forced to move into a new home or buy new automobiles are feeling the crunch of higher interest rates. Student loan debt became payable again just ahead of the holiday season while all insurance premiums are on the rise.

Despite all these reasons, we saw one of the strongest fourth quarters on record regarding returns. While returns were narrow early in the year, driven by AI-related hype, the second half of the year has been about inflation coming under control and, thus, a halt in interest rate increases for the last quarter. A typical 60% Stock/40% Bond diversified portfolio ended the year up around 15%, led by the strong growth of U.S. large stocks with some of the best returns of any major asset class at +26% for the year (Example 60/40 portfolio represented by 40% Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR, 30% S&P 500 TR, 15% MSCI EAFE NR, 10% Russell 2000 TR, and 5% MSCI EM NR). International stocks underperformed the U.S. but also had a strong year, up around 18%, and U.S. aggregate bonds finished the year positively at 5.5%, thanks to falling yields and tighter spreads.

Recession?

A year ago, the media was full of recession buzz. The S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough drawdown during 2022 of 24%, which usually signals a mild recession (stock market reaction usually happens ahead of an economic recession). But just because we didn’t experience a traditional recession, defined as two-quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product Growth in a row, doesn’t mean various sectors didn’t have periods of contraction. Capital Group shared an interesting perspective recently that the economy experienced recessions within multiple industries; they just didn’t align simultaneously. No doubt another hangover anomaly from the COVID shutdown and subsequent highs from the government infusion of cash. The common thread over the past couple of years was the resiliency of the jobs market. As long as people are as employed as they want, money continues to flow into their pockets for spending. Consumer spending is the largest component of our economy, and a strong job market means the economy should continue to grow and avoid recession.

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar weakened somewhat versus a basket of other currencies from the beginning of the year. This has served as a tailwind for international investing. Some of the weakening came late in the fourth quarter after the Federal Reserve indicated their desire to start cutting rates in the U.S. before other developed market economies would start. The differential between interest rates in the U.S. versus other economies worldwide is a driver of the strength or weakness of the dollar. If the rate differential narrows, meaning rates in the U.S. start to come down while rates stay higher in other areas of the world, making the yields similar, whether here or abroad, would weaken the U.S. dollar. This coupled with slowing inflation will likely continue to impact the dollar strength.

Source: JP Morgan Guide to the markets 11/30/23

Inflation and Interest Rates

Speaking of inflation…It appears that inflation is back down to long-term averages and continuing to drift downward. The chart below shows headline inflation (blue) and core CPI, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, as it strips out volatile items like food and energy in the short term. Shelter and services are the two areas of the economy that are still driving inflation. If inflation remains under control, this gives the Federal Reserve more leeway in cutting interest rates next year. 

Government Fiscal Situation

While we, as consumers, have applauded higher yields for over a year, interest outlay on the national debt is rising. Doubling from just a few years ago, interest payments now total approximately 14-15% of tax revenues. The 1990s is the last time we saw levels like this. Likely, this has yet to peak as debt continues to mature and be re-issued at higher interest rates. The level of debt continues to increase at what seems to be an unsustainable pace, too. The amount of debt per capita is nearly $100,000 for the first time. That means the government is $100,000 in debt per person in the United States. There are several ways to reduce or slow the growth: strong GDP growth, increasing immigration, spending cuts, and increased taxes (fiscal policy).

At the December Federal Reserve meeting, the FED confirmed that they are intending on rate cuts in 2024 rather than any more rate increases. The data is supporting this move. Rate reductions should help to slow the stress on interest payments for the government. This has certainly impacted consumer mortgage rates as they are falling from their peak.

You might have heard that there is an election in 2024. Some major topics of debate will make headlines in the coming months, including international policy, the impact of inflation, the growing national debt, and many key social issues.  

While it is nearly a year away, you may be anxious about how it will impact investments. A volatile campaign season and close vote can create uncertainty for markets. But, historically, election years have favored patient investors even though they may be volatile. For long-term investors, the political party holding the White House has had little impact on returns. Check out the chart below. You can see that returns for the S&P 500 have, on average, been similar regardless of who holds this office.

No doubt 2024 will be interesting. Not only are we facing a major election, but 40 national elections are happening worldwide (Russia, India, the U.K., South Africa, and Taiwan, to name a few)! That is more than 40% of the world’s population. Since a year can be a lifetime in politics, in addition to our February investment update, we will be doing a special election update in the fall to shed light on the progression of this process and how it may be impacting investments in the short run.

Portfolio Construction: Thinking Differently for the Coming Year

We are coming off two years that were full of surprises. Nobody saw the fastest rate hike cycle in history coming in 2022, leading to one of the worst stock and bond years. To follow that up, nobody predicted that the U.S. stock market would be positive over 25% in 2023. While your core investment philosophy should not change from year to year, the market is constantly changing and may provide short-term opportunities to keep on your radar. Lately, it feels as though those market changes are happening faster than ever. A few things that we are keeping on our radar that might drive opportunities for tweaks in portfolios are:

Inflation: Is high inflation behind us? How will the Fed react?

• Think about shifting in or out of real assets, commodities, and TIPS.

Interest Rates: Are we leaving a rising rate environment and entering a falling rate environment?

• Think about targeting certain maturities in bond portfolios.

Elections: Are there key policy shifts that may drive market trends for years? 

• Think about an overweight or underweight to certain sectors in both stocks and bonds and use election volatility as a rebalancing opportunity throughout the year.

Valuations: Have international, small-cap stocks, or the value style become cheap enough to expect outperformance?

• Think about shifting from the more expensive asset class to the discounted one. 

Dollar Strength: The dollar was in a bull market for almost 15 years, but are we in the early innings of a turnaround?

• Don’t give up on international investing. Think about underweighting U.S. dollar assets and adding to international.  

While these themes, and surely many others, will play out through the next year and potentially provide opportunities to take advantage of – our underlying philosophy will not change. We will focus on fundamentals and stick to our process. Headlines might cause investors to overreact one way or the other, but rather than get swept up in the news cycles, we will use those opportunities to rebalance and stick to our long-term investment goals.

Lastly, there is one additional change coming in May of 2024. The SEC is shortening the standard trade settlement cycle from two business days after the trade date to one business day after the trade date. This reduces the time between when a sale of a security occurs and when the proceeds are cleared for withdrawal. Remember years ago when settlement took three days? Will there ever be a zero-day settlement? Only time will tell. As technology improves and processes can be completed more efficiently, we see benefits like this!

Stay tuned for the invitation to our annual economic and investment update coming soon! There will be both an in-person event and a webinar!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Example 60/40 portfolio represented by 40% Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR, 30% S&P 500 TR, 15% MSCI EAFE NR, 10% Russell 2000 TR, and 5% MSCI EM NR.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Planning for Medicare

Contributed by: Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

Here it is again…time for changing leaves, cooler weather, and open enrollment for Medicare. Medicare coverage is an important decision, and we suggest reviewing your coverages on an annual basis.

Sign up today for our upcoming seminar on Monday, October 2nd hosted by Sandy Adams, CFP® of Center for Financial Planning, Inc., and presented by Cynthia Brown of Powers Financial Benefits, LLC, an independent agent, that provides details on Medicare, open enrollment, and what is important for 2023. And feel free to check out the replay from last year’s presentation below!

Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse Cynthia Brown or Powers Financial Benefits, LLC. Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is an Independent Registered Investment Advisor. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.

The Center to Observe Upcoming Juneteenth Holiday

Contributed by: Kelsey Arvai, CFP®, MBA

Contributed by: Michael Brocavich, CFP®, MBA

This year, Juneteenth will be observed on Monday, June 19th. The Center, Raymond James, and public trading markets, including NYSE, NASDAQ, Chicago Stock Exchange and bond, unit investment trust, options and mutual fund markets will all be closed in observance.

Juneteenth (which stands for “June nineteenth”) commemorates the day in 1865 that federal troops arrived in Galveston, Texas – months after the end of the civil war— to take control of the state and ensure that all enslaved people be freed. This came over two years after the signing of the Emancipation Proclamation. Although emancipation did not happen overnight for all the enslaved people in Texas, celebrations broke out among the newly freed, and Juneteenth was born. Slavery was formally abolished with the adoption of the 13th Amendment in December 1865.

Juneteenth signifies a historic day for Black Americans and is an important day for all Americans to observe as a part of our collective history. A landmark for social equity, we honor this day to commemorate Black freedom; reflect on how far we’ve come since; and acknowledge that work still needs to be done in the pursuit of social equity.

Kelsey Arvai, CFP®, MBA is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She facilitates back office functions for clients.

Michael Brocavich, CFP®, MBA is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He has an extensive background in both personal and corporate finance.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc.

Blogs You May Have Missed (And Are Worth the Read!)

Contributed by: Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

As we mentioned last week, Center team members have written an astounding 59 blogs in 2022! With that much content, it’s easy to miss some of our posts here and there. So, take a look at the list below for some of our Most Underrated Blogs of the Year. There just may be one that peaks your interest!

1. Harvesting Losses in Volatile Markets

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ discusses several ways you can carry out a successful loss harvesting strategy during inevitable periods of market volatility.

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2. What Happens to my Social Security Benefit If I Retire Early?

Are you considering an early retirement? Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ explains how Social Security is one topic you'll want to check on before making any final decisions.

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3. How to Find the Right Retirement Income Figure for You

When it comes to your retirement income, you don't want to guess. Sandy Adams, CFP® shows you where you should start to develop the most accurate number for you.

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4. Why Retirement Planning is Like Climbing Mount Everest

Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP® shares that our goal as your advisor is to help guide you on your journey - both up and down the mountain of retirement!

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5. New Guidelines May Help Retirees Retain More Savings

Josh Bitel, CFP® shares new RMD tables that now reflect longer life expectancies, which means a reduction in yearly required distributions.

The Results Are In…The Top Five Blogs of 2022

Contributed by: Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

Over the course of 2022, Center team members have written an astounding 59 blogs on topics including retirement planning, market volatility, eldercare, and investment planning - just to name a few. The results are in, and here are our Five Most Popular Blogs to close out the year. Check out our list below to see how many you have read!

1. Is My Pension Subject to Michigan Income Tax?

In 2012, Michigan joined the majority of states in taxing pension and retirement account income. Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP® reviews how these taxes can play a role in one's overall retirement income planning strategy.

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2. The “10-Year Rule” Update You Need to Know About

One of the details of the SECURE Act that many of us call the "10-year rule" may be changing slightly. Jeanette LoPiccolo, CFP® shares what you need to know.

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3. Strategies for Retirees: Understanding Your Tax Bracket

Michael Brocavich, CFP® describes the two simple strategies that could potentially help reduce the amount of tax due in retirement.

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4. The Basics of Series I Savings Bonds

With the inflation increase, Series I savings bonds have become an attractive investment. Kelsey Arvai, MBA shares what to consider before adding them to your portfolio.

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5. What is Retirees’ Biggest Fear?

It's not the fear of running out of money. Not the stock market either. Nor loneliness. Sandy Adams, CFP® tells you what it truly is.

The Center: A Crain’s Detroit Cool Place to Work for Sixth Year

Contributed by: Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

We’re happy to announce The Center has been awarded Crain’s 2022 Cool Places to Work* in Michigan for the sixth consecutive year!  Crain’s Cool Places to Work was designed to identify, recognize, and honor the best places of employment in Michigan. The 2022 Cool Places to Work in Michigan list is made up of 100 companies in three size categories: small (15-49 employees), medium (50-249) and large (250+). Companies from across the state entered the two-part process to determine the Cool Places to Work in Michigan. The first part consisted of evaluating each nominated company’s workplace policies, practices, and demographics, and the second part consisted of an employee survey to measure the employee experience. The combined scores determined the final rankings.

THE CENTER WAY

The Center team has spoken, and it’s evident we’re all proud of benefits like professional development, education reimbursement, workplace committees, and social events. Our fun culture is developed over ping-pong tournaments, chili cook-offs, and volunteer work.

TEAMWORK DURING A PANDEMIC

“We are especially proud of how we’re managing the curveball 2020 threw us. When COVID-19 hit, we transitioned to working remotely and formed a response committee tasked with making the office a safe place to return to,” said Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP®.

Managing office culture remotely comes with its difficulties, but none were significant enough to break the incredible community our office has developed.  We’ve started a book club to keep engaged and even brought in a little competition with our stock education bracket-style game, Market Madness and health challenges throughout the pandemic.  The health challenges helped keep the COVID 15lbs at bay.

Ultimately, The Center is a cool place to work because each team member contributes to a caring and positive workplace.

This ranking is not based in anyway on the individual's abilities in regards to providing investment advice or management. This ranking is not indicative of advisor’s future performance, is not an endorsement, and may not be representative of individual clients' experience. Raymond James is not affiliated with Crain’s.

10 Investment Themes for Mid-Year 2022

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Along with this investment commentary, we'll be answering your most commonly asked questions during market volatility, recession, and inflation in our BONUS on-demand webinar.

The first half of 2022 has seen a surge in interest rates, volatile equity and bond markets, and geopolitical conflict. All while investors have been recalibrating their expectations on the Fed’s timeline for interest rate increases. Economic data shows soaring prices and a very tight labor market, strengthening the case for the Fed to take aggressive action to tame inflation. Complicating matters for the global economy, China’s Covid-related shutdowns have exacerbated supply chain disruptions.

During these uncertain times, we want to highlight ten different themes we are thinking about right now and how they may impact your investments. However, despite these themes, it is important to remember that your financial plan is the most important theme to us through all market conditions. The financial plans we design are built to withstand markets like we are experiencing today and even worse. Everyone uses a different map to chart their destination. Some destinations are a week away, and some destinations are years away. Rest assured, your plan is designed with your final destination in mind, and this type of volatility is expected along the way!

Theme 1: Rising Risk of Recession

While no one has officially declared that the U.S. is in a recession yet, it is looking more likely that we could enter one. Two-quarters of negative GDP (one of which has already happened in the first quarter) is the traditional definition of a recession. Politics and mid-term elections will impact whether we hear recession rhetoric out of Washington, but the definition is pretty clear. The National Bureau of Economic research weighs jobs, manufacturing, and real incomes when assessing whether or not we are in a recession and not just real GDP, so this is important information to watch.  

Theme 2: Inflation

Inflation has been more persistent than many anticipated this year (including the Fed). Government stimulus money is still in bank accounts, driving our desire to purchase, which hasn’t fully been spent. This past quarter is the first time in a long time that we have finally seen this number start to level off and come down. This is likely due to higher prices. Supply chain disruptions are still present, but we are feeling some relief. Remember the chart earlier in the year that we referenced showing over 100 container ships waiting outside Los Angeles and Long Beach, California (one of the biggest ports in the country)? That number is down to 34 as of May. Chip shortages continue to persist with no end in sight, forcing companies to innovate as much as possible to manufacture items like cars with fewer chips.

Theme 3: Interest Rates

In June, the Fed responded to the higher-than-expected inflation number with a .75% rate increase, bringing the Fed funds target rate to 1.75% after .25% and .5% rate increases earlier in the year. The Fed has shown that it is ready to fight inflation and update its plan accordingly as new information becomes available. The bond market is also expecting a .5%-.75% rate increase in July. The U.S. is not alone, as 45 central banks in other nations have also increased interest rates. If inflation starts to quiet and recession data starts to accelerate, the Fed could begin to pull back on its rate-hiking plans. Quantitative tightening (Q.T.) has also begun.

The chart below shows the rate of Q.T. for the $1 trillion run rate that is anticipated. In most months this year, the Fed will let the maturities happen and not replace those bonds. Most months show more maturities than is needed, so the Fed will still be buying bonds in these months. There are only two months this year where the Fed will need to actively trim some bonds from their balance sheet (the blue bar each month shows the amount of bonds maturing on their own, and the orange bar is the amount that the Fed would need to reduce by)

Theme 4: Geopolitical Conflicts

Sadly, the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues with no resolution in sight. While these headlines are not directly impacting day-to-day market moves anymore, their repercussions from sanctions on Russia continue to affect other macro-economic factors such as rising energy prices, which directly impact inflation.

Theme 5: Mid-Term Elections

As we look at the mid-term elections this November, it does look like the Blue Wave of Democratic control is on thin ice. The three things that are against the Democrats are:

History: History suggests that the incumbent party loses around 25- 30 seats during the mid-term elections.

President’s Approval Rating: The lower the President’s approval rating, the more significant the losses. With President Biden’s approval rating around 42%, that would suggest losses closer to the 30-seat level as it is lower than usual. But the question is - will his approval rating continue to languish in the low 40s?  

Retirement: This is also a headwind from Democrats’ bid to maintain the House, as 25 sitting Democrats are retiring. This is the largest number of Democrat retirements with a Democrat in office since 1996. 

Theme 6: Cryptocurrency Volatility

Cryptocurrencies continue to make headlines. This time, however, the headlines are related to the meltdown experienced. Last year, many people touted Cryptocurrencies as the only true inflation hedge…until they were not. In the past quarter, most Cryptocurrencies have dropped more than 50%. Coinmarketcap.com shows the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies reaching a high point of $2.9 trillion last November. As of the end of the quarter, that number fell to $850 billion – a 70% crash. Additionally, some individual cryptocurrencies have fallen over 90% just this year! Speculation and volatility are and will continue to be a hallmark of this asset. Proceed with caution if you do so on your own, as this is not an asset we recommend holding as part of your long-term asset allocation!

Theme 7: Do Something or Do Nothing?

Please continue reading to see what we are doing in portfolios right now. Investors often feel the need to do something when markets are volatile, as the fight or flight instinct has been ingrained into our being for hundreds of years. If you are doing something, ensure it is driven by the right reasons, as doing the wrong things can be very costly to your long-term financial success. The graph below shows that investors, as a whole, get the timing wrong by selling low and buying high. Following the herd can result in achieving almost 50% less return (orange bar below - 5.5%) than a buy and hold investor (yellow bar below - 10.7%). Let us worry about when it is time to do something as it is often best to buy and hold.

Theme 8: Elevated Oil Prices

Energy has by far been the best performing sector in the market, but this does not mean it will be the best performing sector in the future. Usually, by the time something is making headlines, the returns have already been booked. However, looking ahead, this bought of high gas prices will do more to spur our country toward utilizing renewable resources than any lobbying group or politician could hope to accomplish on their own. As fossil fuel prices continue to rise, alternative fuels are more cost-effective and can accelerate

Theme 9: Diversification

U.S. Large Cap stocks have been the darling asset class of the past decade, which has tempted many investors to ditch other asset classes in favor of more U.S. stocks. But as 2022 has shown, there is a considerable risk in concentrating your investments into one asset class if that asset class ends up being one of the worst performers of the year. We consider it especially risky to load up on a single asset class AFTER we have already seen a vast period of outperformance like in the U.S. stock market over the past ten years. 

Global valuations are much cheaper than they are here in the U.S. Studies have shown that lower valuations tend to suggest higher returns, which is another major reason to hold your international investments. 

Grandeur Peak, one of our international investment managers, referenced this quote in their quarterly letter that we believe applies to the question of U.S. vs. international investments today: 

“The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum ‘on average,’ it actually spends very little of its time there. Instead, it is almost always swinging toward or away from the extremes of its arc. But whenever the pendulum is near either extreme, it is inevitable that it will move back toward the midpoint sooner or later. In fact, it is the movement toward an extreme itself that supplies the energy for the swing back.” (Howard Marks, Memo to Clients, 4/11/1991)

2022 has been painful for investment performance across almost every asset class. The silver lining, in our opinion, is that diversification is still a success story. A diversified set of asset classes has dampened the drawdown so far this year, making the hard investment times a little less painful. 

Diversification is a core principle of the Center’s investment process, making international stocks, bonds, and other alternative asset classes key components of our portfolios going forward. 

Theme 10: Portfolio Management During Market Drawdowns

We have been busy behind the scenes tax-loss harvesting, thinking about timely Roth conversions, if that is a strategy you are employing, rebalancing, and ensuring cash needs are met. We are also monitoring factors that may tell us when to lighten up on or add to equities. While these factors are meant to trigger rarely, as there is a shift in incoming information from our broad set of barometers, there may be changes in our outlook and strategy.

We encourage you to watch our on-demand webinar if you are interested in hearing more. To access the webinar, enter your email address and the webinar will be accessible immediately after!

As always, feel free to reach out if you have additional questions. We are happy to help! Until next time, enjoy your summer.

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