How To Invest Your Money In Turbulent Markets

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson, CAP®

Navigating daily market fluctuations through COVID-19 has been challenging. With every newsfeed from Washington or new economic data numbers, markets react. So what do we make of this as investors? Well, it truly depends on your circumstance. For individuals who have a long investment horizon and stable finances, there may be an opportunity to take advantage of market inefficiencies.

For individuals who have experienced (or anticipate) financial changes, it may be time to reevaluate your investment approach. Here are a few ideas to discuss with your advisor when considering investment strategies during the coronavirus pandemic.

Strategies for Long-Term Investors

For long-term investors, volatile markets should not discourage commitment to your investment plan. Staying invested, reestablishing your asset allocation, gradually investing, and generating tax opportunities are still valuable to progressing your investment aims. Think about the following strategies:

1. Rebalance - Rebalancing is a systematic way of adapting the commonly suggested investment advice, “buy low and sell high”. It disciplines investors to trim well-performing investments and buy investments that have the potential to gain profits. In our current environment, that looks like trimming from bond positions and investing in equities for many people. Importantly, rebalancing helps investors maintain their established asset allocation; someone’s predetermined investment allocation suited to meet their investment objectives. In other words, rebalancing helps investors maintain the risk/return profile meant to enhance their probability of meeting long-term goals.

2. Dollar-Cost Average - A gingerly alternative to rebalancing is dollar-cost averaging. Investors who use this strategy identify underexposed asset classes and invest a set amount of money into those assets at a set time (i.e. monthly) over a set period (i.e. 1 year). This method helps investors buy more shares of something when it is inexpensive and fewer shares of something when it is expensive. Buying at a premium when the market is up is stabilized by taking advantage of prices when the market is down. Therefore, the average cost paid per share of your investment is cheaper than just paying the premium prices. Having a dollar-cost averaging strategy in place now, while markets have dipped, helps you buy more shares of investments while they cost less.

3. Tax Loss Harvest - Selling all or part of a position in your taxable account when it is worth less than what you initially paid for it creates a realized capital loss. Losses can offset capital gains and other income in the year you realize it. If realized losses exceed realized gains during that year, realized losses can be carried forward (into future years). Harvesting losses could help investors replace legacy positions, diversify away from concentrated positions, or stow away losses for more profitable times.

4. Do Nothing - The key here is to stay invested. The challenge with fleeing investment markets when they are down is that it is incredibly hard to time reinvesting when they will go back up. Missing upside days may inhibit full recovery of losses. According to research developed by Calamos Investments, missing the 20 best days of the S&P 500 over 20 years (1/1/99 – 12/31/19) reduced investment returns by two-thirds. Time, not market timing, supports you in meeting your investment goals.

Strategies Amid Financial Hardships

Many people’s employment and financial situations have changed. Understandably, some have to review their ability to invest. If you are concerned about losing your job or potential health issues, it is time to revisit your savings. Could your rainy day resources cover 6-8 months of financial needs? If not, you will likely need to build up savings. For those who are experiencing financial challenges, consider the following strategies:

1. Add to emergency funds by lowering or pausing retirement account contributions. Luckily, you do not have to liquidate part of your retirement account with this strategy. Staying invested gives your portfolio a chance to benefit from long-term performance. If your employer matches retirement account contributions, continue to invest up to that amount, then add to savings with the balance of your normal participation amount. Once savings needs are met, resume full investment participation.

2. Rebalance your portfolio to provide liquidity. As noted above, rebalancing takes earnings off the table from investments that have performed well. However, instead of reallocating to other investments, use proceeds to increase your rainy day savings. This method prevents you from selling off positions that are at a loss.

Jaclyn Jackson, CAP® is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She manages client portfolios and performs investment research.

---

Please note, the options noted above are not for everyone. Consult your advisor to determine which options are appropriate for you. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Think Portfolio Diversification is Overrated – Read This

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

Let’s face it, the S&P 500 has consistently beat diversified portfolios since 2009.  Demonstrated below, a diversified portfolio of bonds, domestic stocks, and international stocks (crimson bar) was edged out by the S&P 500 nine of the last ten years. With the S&P’s winning streak, why would investors consider putting money to work anywhere else but US equities?

What The Fund?

For decades, investment professionals have preached the merits of portfolio diversification and asset allocation, but lately, performance hasn’t supported their conviction.  So why are investment professionals adamant about diversification? It began in 1952 when Harry Markowitz (a graduate student who became a

Nobel Prize winning economist) published an article in the Journal of Finance where he outlined the premise of his popularized Modern Portfolio Theory.  Essentially, the theory highlights the relationship between risk and reward for different types of investments. It then mathematically assesses investors’ ability to take on risks with performance expectations to create an optimal portfolio.  In other words, Markowitz laid the groundwork to help investors discover the right combination of investment products to achieve a certain level of performance without taking unnecessary risks.  

A Case for Portfolio Diversification

If you were looking to maximize portfolio growth over the last decade, you could have easily been tempted to scrap diversification in favor of the S&P 500.  Yet, there is evidence that Markowitz’s theory is still relevant for today’s investors. Craig L. Israelsen, PhD and Executive-in-Residence in the Personal Financial Planning Program at Utah Valley University, did compelling research around portfolio diversification worth reviewing. He compared five portfolios that represent different risks levels and asset allocations over 50-years, from 1970-2019.  While there is much to glean from his research, I’d like to zoom in on his comparison of two moderately aggressive portfolios because it shows the value of portfolio diversification. 

The first Moderately Aggressive Portfolio has a traditional 60% US Stock, 40% Bond asset allocation. The second Moderately Aggressive Portfolio has a 14.3% allocation to seven different asset classes.  In 2019, a year dominated by the S&P 500, the first portfolio (having a larger composition of the S&P 500) predictably outperformed the second portfolio.  On the other hand, over the 50-year period the second portfolio had similar annualized gross return with a lower standard deviation.  An investor in the second, 7-Asset Diversified Portfolio, had similar returns without taking as much risk as an investor in the first portfolio.  

There is another point worth spotlighting here.  Imagine if you only invested in the S&P 500, as represented by the Very Aggressive 100% US Stock portfolio, over that 50-year period. Compared with the 7-Asset Diversified Portfolio, the 100% US Stock portfolio had a 7% greater standard deviation for just under a percent greater return.  The diversified portfolio would have given you most of the return for half the headache.

Complex Portfolios for Complex Living

Investors don’t invest in a bubble or just for kicks.  In reality, investors use portfolios to serve needs and meet financial goals. Digging deeper into Israelsen’s research, he explores a real-life need and a common portfolio use: supplementing retirement.  His research evaluates a $250,000 initial investment for each portfolio over 26 rolling 25-year periods from 1970-2019 and assumes a 5% initial end-of-year withdrawal with 3% annual cost of living adjustment taken at the end of each year.

Again, looking at the two Moderately Aggressive Portfolios, the 60% US Stock, 40% Bond Portfolio had a median ending balance of $1,234,749 after 25 years compared to the 7-Asset Diversified Portfolio median ending balance of $1,806,565.  Likewise, if someone had aggressively invested in US Stock over that time, (s)he would still end up with less money than the diversified portfolio at $1,500.554.  This best illustrates why Modern Portfolio Theory (limiting risk through diversification) still matters.  Retirees want to avoid choppy investment experiences as they pull money from their accounts and create even returns through diversification that extend the longevity of their portfolios.

Pulling it all together, life is complex and investors use their investment portfolios to manage those complexities.  Investor needs and financial goals punctuate the necessity of investing in ways that diminish excessive risk-taking and extend the life of portfolios. Everything considered, risks mitigation through portfolio diversification stands true today, even for investors who’ve witnessed an S&P 500 tear over the last decade. 

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She manages client portfolios and performs investment research.

---

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Standard deviation measures the fluctuation of returns around the arithmetic average return of investment. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the variability (and thus risk) of the investment returns.

Performance of hypothetical investments do not reflect transaction costs, taxes, or returns that any investor actually attained and may not reflect the true costs, including management fees, of an actual portfolio. Changes in any assumption may have a material impact on the hypothetical returns presented. Illustrations does not include fees and expenses which would reduce returns.

Trade War Winners and Losers

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

Emboldened by NAFTA trade deal renegotiations with Mexico and Canada, car import taxation, and the U.S.-China trade war, protectionism is at the forefront of U.S. economic policy. As the world spotlight focuses on the U.S.-China trade war, many are watching to see how the battle between two of the largest world economies will play out, and how it will affect global economic interdependence.

For those keeping score, trade war winners and losers are as follows:

Winners

• Cheap Exporters (Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan) - Companies have opted to move distribution from China to Vietnam in attempt to bypass U.S. tariffs. As of August 2019, the U.S. imports 40% more from Vietnam than it did in 2018. Cheap exporters win with more opportunities to improve their gross domestic product (GDP). In the case of Vietnam, exports to the U.S. are 26% of their 2019 GDP.

• Brazil - China imports 60% of soybeans traded worldwide. After Beijing issued a retaliatory 25% duty on U.S. imports, Brazil exported two million additional metric tons of soybeans to China between October and November of 2018.

• Manufacturing Sector - Fabricated metals, machinery, and electronic instrument industries doubled jobs from 15,000 to 30,000 between May 2018 and May 2019. Not to mention, of the 2.6 million new jobs added since tariff announcements, 204,000 of them were in the manufacturing sector.

Losers

• Consumers - Americans may feel the pain in their wallets, with increased prices of products impacted by the trade war.

• European Union - Opposite cheap exporters, the European Union (EU) is at risk of worsened gross domestic product. Currently, exports create 40% of GDP. Twelve percent of that GDP is generated from the United States. As the EU’s largest exporter and economy, Germany is at risk of being hit hardest.

Perspective Matters

Keep in mind that viewing the trade war through the lens of winners and losers is an oversimplification. The economic interconnectedness of globalization is quite complex. It’s no wonder many are scratching their heads when considering whether protectionist policies are helpful or harmful.

Also, the data tells conflicting stories. Case in point: the manufacturing industry. As explained above, the industry is experiencing domestic job growth, which would point to a benefit of protectionism. For balance, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only six of the 20 major manufacturing categories have grown faster since tariff threats began. The other 14 have been either consistent or done worse. Notably, textile, paper, and chemical industries slumped, because of steel or softwood lumber tariff retaliation. Vehicle, technology, heavy equipment, and agriculture companies have suffered a similar fate. What’s more, some industries have cut jobs because of rising production costs from tariffs. General Motors, for example, lost $1 billion in 2018 and projects additional costs of the same amount this year. As a result, they’ve closed plants, subsequently fueling a strike by 46,000 employees. The pain doesn’t stop there; GM’s major suppliers have also lost vital business.

Opportunity Knocks

No doubt, international equities have taken one on the chin, and protectionist policies have not helped. In fact, international markets have underperformed the S&P 500 over the last seven years. However, if we zoom out a bit, historically low international valuations may indicate an entry point for long-term investors. The diagram below reflects less than average valuations for developed markets, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets. While trade war headlines impact emerging markets most, valuations urge investors to review these spaces further for investing potential.

Source: FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reubers, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Additionally, looking at when international stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks between 1975 and 2015, we see a pattern; international and U.S. equity performance is generally cyclical. The data indicates that as the cyclical nature between U.S. stocks and international stocks shifts in favor of international stocks, long-term investors have a chance to recover the difference between current valuations and 25-year historical averages. It also punctuates the importance of portfolio diversification.

Chart: MSCI EAFE Index vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. Source: FactSet, as of 12/31/15.

While it is unclear how protectionist policies will play out, and who will win or lose as a result, long-term trends must be considered. More importantly, investors must ask themselves whether protectionism will indefinitely deter international markets, or just force them to adapt and reimagine how world markets interact.

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She manages client portfolios and performs investment research.

---

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility.
Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.
Investing in commodities is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Their markets are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising.

Climate Change and What It Means for Investors

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

Coming in 1.71°F above its historical average of 59.9°F, June 2019 was the hottest June globally in 140 years of recorded data. June’s temperature increase is the latest in an upward trend that began in the 1970s. While debates hotter than any June persist about the validity of global warming, the fact remains that climate change carries significant implications for individuals, industries, and investors alike.

Industry and Economic Impact

Not convinced Mother Nature can wreak havoc on your day-to-day life? Just ask any New Yorker who recently experienced a heatwave, flooding, and power outages all in the same week. In fact, there’s no need to look that far; as of this writing, some Detroiters are still hoping to regain power after incredibly warm weather hit the region.

While it’s pretty clear how extreme weather conditions generate problems for energy companies, heatwaves can disrupt other industries. Manufacturing plants experience reduced production when temperatures soar above 90 degrees; fewer people look for homes, which affects the real estate industry’s most active season; and increased hospitalizations impact insurance companies. While these problems more directly speak to developed, urban areas and industries, they don’t even begin to define the potential implications of climate change around the globe.

Goldman Sachs summarized it best: “We believe that in addition to environmental impact, direct damage from mortality, labor productivity, agriculture, energy demand, and coastal storms may also significantly impact overall economic growth.”

Investors Demand More

It’s no wonder 477 global investors (including money managers and large pension funds around the world) issued a letter to governments attending the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan. Commanding $34 trillion in assets, they’ve concluded that ignoring the Paris Agreement’s mission would create “an unacceptably high temperature increase that would cause substantial negative economic impacts.” Investors created the letter to petition government leaders to achieve the 2015 Paris Agreement goals, accelerate private sector investment into low carbon transition, and commit to improved climate-related financial reporting.

Be the Change

These investors also use their substantial financial weight to speak with companies in their portfolios about how they are addressing and alleviating industry-specific climate change issues. Individual investors can take a similar approach, by using their financial power to invest in mutual/exchange traded funds that evaluate the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) qualities of companies in their portfolios, as well as more traditional methods of research.

Are you ready to be the change?

Learn more about The Center’s Social Portfolio and ESG investing here.

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She manages client portfolios and performs investment research.

---

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of Mutual Funds and Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contains this and other information about Mutual Funds and ETFs. The prospectus and summary prospectus is available from your financial advisor and should be read carefully before investing.

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

SOURCES: https://www.pionline.com/esg/investor-group-pleads-g-20-global-warming https://theinvestoragenda.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/FINAL-at-June-24-Global-Investor-Statement-to-Governments-on-Climate-Change-26.06.19-1.pdf

Webinar in Review: What Donors Want

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

If your nonprofit hopes to develop meaningful relationships with donors, this webinar recording is for you. Learn what donors want to know before working with charities, how to make it easier for donors to support your work, and why endowments are important for meeting your organization’s goals.

If you missed the webinar, here’s a recording:

Check out the time stamps below to listen to the topics you’re most interested in:

0:00 Intro and Agenda

What Donors Want to Know:

• 2:30 Grant Review Feedback

• 09:20 Financial Review Feedback

Make it Easier for Individual Donors to Support Your Work:

• 15:00 Donor Advised Funds

• 17:00 Qualified Charitable Distributions

Meeting Your Organizations Goals:

• 19:00 Endowments

• 22:00 Working with Financial Advisors

Top 5 Reasons You Need an Intern

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

As you are wrapping up your business’ year end numbers and planning next year’s budget, consider adding “internship” as a line item.  Offering an internship is a budget friendly way to lighten heavy workloads, tackle projects, and bring youthful enthusiasm to your team. Still on the fence?

These reasons may convince you to seriously consider starting an internship program.

1. Leverage Time – Let’s get the most obvious out of the way.  An intern can make two hands four and turn twenty four hours into forty eight. Simply stated, interns can take routine or odd tasks off your plate, so you can actually get through your to-do list.

2. Power Through Projects – If you’re like most, there are usually one or two projects on the backburner that you don’t have the time, experience, or manpower complete. Why not hire an intern to get those projects in motion? Take advantage of the opportunity to temporarily hire someone with a specific skillset that may not be needed permanently. For example, if you are implementing a new technology, it may be more appropriate to hire an intern studying information technology than one studying a topic related to your field.  Perhaps there are operational or logistical projects, marketing or media projects, etc. than an intern can develop and train you/others to maintain.

3. Trial Hire - Hiring an intern gives you time to discern whether someone is a good fit for your office. You can evaluate one’s ability to manage responsibilities or see how well an individual blends with your current team. Additionally, internships can help you refine a new hire role. Through the internship, you can explore the specific needs and responsibilities most helpful to taking your business to the next level as well as determine if a seasonal, part-time, or full time employee is necessary.

4. Save Money – If your business is small or just starting, hiring a full time employee can be quite expensive. With interns, you don’t have to worry about the overhead costs associated with a full-time employee. Furthermore, if you decided to hire an intern fulltime, you save time and money on recruiting efforts.

5. Move Forward – Interns can ignite forward thinking. Since most interns are college age/young adults, they are likely familiar with and comfortable using new technologies. They may assist you in identifying where you can be more productive with the use of technology. Moreover, many interns dabble in related but different fields as they endeavor to find which they’d like to pursue professionally. If you work with someone who’s had multiple internships, they can also offer insight as to how other businesses solve the problems your business is currently facing. In other words, they can provide a unique perspective that may help you maintain competitiveness with industry peers or surpass them with out of the box (outside industry) thinking. 

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator and Financial Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

Is Corporate Tax Reform a Good Thing?

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

The probability of tax reform is increasing with the White House proposing to reduce the corporate statutory federal tax rate from 35% to 20%.  Even though most companies don’t actually pay at the 35% tax rate (26% median effective tax rate for the S&P 500), the tax cut is projected to lift S&P earnings by 8%.  While S&P projections sound good, economic benefits are not a sure thing as implications could have varying outcomes based on historical data. 

To illustrate the complexity of implications, I’ve outlined core arguments that prove and disprove the benign effects of lowering the corporate tax rate.

For:

1. Incentivizes US companies to stay in the US, expand business, and increase employment.
   
   According to a study done by J.P. Morgan, 60% of the cash held by 602 US multi-national companies is in foreign accounts. They concluded that $663 billion would be invested into business expansion and job growth in the United States, if an income tax cut were offered to companies that repatriate.
    

2. Higher corporate income taxes lower worker wages, diminish consumption, and increase unemployment.
   
   Using data from 1970-2007, a Tax Foundation study found that for every $1 increase in state and local corporate tax revenues, hourly wages would drop an estimated $2.50. Theoretically, lower wages decrease one’s ability to buy goods, resulting in lower income for businesses thereby creating a net increase in unemployment.
    

3. Job growth is inhibited by the current corporate income tax rate which is over the rate that maximizes revenue to corporations and the US government.
   
   Based on studies of the Laffer curve, the corporate income tax rate that maximizes revenue to both corporations and the US government is 30%.

Against:

1. Repatriation doesn’t ensure more jobs in the US.
   
   Congress passed a tax holiday in 2004 that allowed companies to bring back earnings made abroad at a 5% income tax instead of at 35%.  Fifteen of the companies that most benefitted cut more than 20,000 net jobs.
    

2. Historically, unemployment rates were the lowest in US when federal corporate income tax rates were the highest.
   
   From 1951 (top marginal corporate income tax rate rose from 42% to 50.75%) to 1969 (rates reached 52.8%), the unemployment rate moved from 3.3% to 3.5%. From 1986 to 2011 (top marginal corporate income tax rate declined from 46% to 35%), the unemployment rate moved from 7% to 8.9%.
   
   Majority of economists don’t link employment to lower tax rates.  When 53 American economists were polled, 65% attributed employers not hiring to lack of product/service demand.
    

3. High corporate profits don’t guarantee low unemployment rates.
   
   In 2011, corporate profits made up 10% of US GDP (highest since 1950), but corporate income tax revenue only brought the US federal government the equivalent of 1.2% of GDP (lowest in recorded history). In 2011, the US unemployment rate was 8.9% compared to the OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) average of 8.2%.

*Data summarized from https://corporatetax.procon.org/.

While most would agree lowering corporate tax rates deserves serious consideration, it is not a given that lowering corporate tax rates will improve employment nor consumption.  Today, US corporate profits are high (sitting on nearly $2 trillion in cash), yet wages and job creation hasn’t gone up significantly. There are many other factors to consider with comprehensive tax reform, not to mention the tough tradeoffs involved in this process. Frankly, tax reform is a huge, convoluted undertaking; time will tell whether the current administration is up to the task.

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator and Financial Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

---

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Financial Note: Asset Flow Watch 2017 3Q

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

One of the most common ways to monitor consumer confidence and investor sentiment is to watch fund inflows and outflows.  Market analysts use fund flows to measure sentiment within asset classes, sectors, or markets. This information (combined with other economic indicators) help identify trends and determine investment opportunities.

July trends picked up where June left off, as international equities and taxable bonds continued to receive inflows. 

Most of these flows came through passive funds, but active flows were still positive.  Conversely, US equities saw outflows as valuations appear to be fair or high (depending on whom you ask) and administration confidence declines.  Accordingly, The International Monetary Fund decreased their US GDP growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.1%.  In terms of internationals, investors are opting for developed markets through foreign large blend funds.  Ultimately, this is a play for Europe.  The International Monetary Fund increased its expected growth rate from 1.7% to 1.9% in Europe.   Investors also sought out emerging market funds as the MSCI Emerging Markets index has double-digit returns year to date (28.3% returns YTD at the end of August).

In August, international equity inflows were positive but less positive than in July. 

The slowdown reflects lackluster corporate earnings internationally and uncertainty about North Korea.  Nonetheless, internationals remain compelling to investors with rebounds from Japan and Europe progressing.  MSCI EAFE returns have remained ahead of the S&P 500 in 2017.  Taxable bonds, specifically intermediate-term bond funds, remained the leading category group for inflows. Intermediate bond funds hit the “sweet spot” for many investors because they are usually not as severely impacted by rising rates as long term bonds and typically generate more return than short term bonds.  From January 1st through August 15th, intermediate bonds gained 3.2% beating both the Bloomberg Barclays US Bond Index and 2016 returns.  Differing from June and July, investors are trending back towards active management for their bond funds.

As of writing this, October 4th, 2017, September flows mimic July and August with outflows from US equities and continued inflows to international equities and taxable bonds. 

There are also positive inflows for municipal bonds and alternatives.  Outflows from the US are mostly from growth (especially large growth) and US large blend funds.  International equities experienced outflows last week, but are net positive for the month.  Bond inflows are steady with investors largely continuing to invest in intermediate term bond funds as wells as modestly investing in high yield municipals funds and national intermediate municipal bonds.

Bonds Lead the Pack

Even as rates rise, investors continue to pour assets into bond funds. Why is that the case? Income and diversification seem to motivate the trend.  Even if interest rates rise and bond prices go down, investors still want the guaranteed income stream bonds provide.  Some may also feel they can pick up higher payouts from new bond issues as interest rates increase.  In terms of diversifications, investors have seen gains from their US equities and feel like it is time to rebalance into a true stock diversifier; bonds.

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator and Financial Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

---

This information does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material; it has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making and investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy or strategies employed. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Barclays Capital US Aggregate Index is an unmanaged market value weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset backed, mortgage backed securities with a maturity of at least 1 year. Please note direct investment in any index is not possible.

ESG Investing: The Little Engine That Could

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

As children, many of us were made familiar with The Little Engine That Could, a story about a small railroad engine that overcame the seemingly impossible challenge of pulling heavy freight cars up and over an intimidating mountain. As we witness the unraveling of many government policies, alliances, and programs helpful to ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investing such as dismantling carbon dioxide mitigation, leaving the Paris Agreement global pact, looming EPA budget cuts, etc., it would appear that an insurmountable amount of challenges could hurt ESG investment product performance.

Yet, like The Little Engine, the trend towards ESG investing is plugging ahead with great intensity. In fact, the recent focus on these issues has fired up investors and fund companies.  Leading research firm, Morningstar, has seen a four-fold increase in the use of ESG data in its cloud-based research platform used by asset managers, advisory firms and independent wealth managers since Trump’s election.  Net flows into ESG products in the first 6 months of 2017 have been greater than both 2014 and 2015.  With a dozen new open-end sustainable mutual funds, 2017 flows are also positioned to beat 2016 numbers.

Performance

Excluding ethical motivations, ESG transparency helps investors get a unique, “under the hood” analysis of company risk (or stability) that complements traditional research methods. For example, ESG risks are sometimes more prominent in foreign markets (autocratic governments, human rights issues, wage disparities, etc.).  The graph below demonstrates that ignoring ESG factors may lead to reduced returns for investors in emerging markets.

A study done by European Centre for Corporate Engagement (ECCE) also supports correlation between good ESG practices and financial performance for emerging-market companies.  Even in the case of developed markets, Hermes' global equities team research found that avoiding companies with bottom-decile corporate governance rankings could increase returns by 30 basis points (bps) per month.  To boot, research by index provider, MSCI, indicated that a company’s efforts towards sustainability, such as fair labor practices, good environmental stewardship, and diverse internal leadership, improves returns.

Is it Just Smart Business?

Going back to our metaphor, imagine that the Little Engine was little by design.  While the Little Engine had fewer cylinders and less horse power, it also burned less fuel.  Since the Little Engine was smaller, it weighed less and minimized wear and tear on the parts that supported it. Perhaps the company that owned or built the Little Engine designed it to save money on fuel, have fewer repairs, and prevent EPA emission fines from cutting into profits. 

This begs the question, Are companies that manage environmental, social, and governance factors just practicing smart business strategy?  Phil Davidson, co-manager of American Century Equity Income, stated it best in a Barron’s article, “Cutting corners on environmental issues, for instance, can lead to lawsuits, fines, and damages. Businesses that use less water and less power have lower costs and operate more efficiently. Good corporate governance plays a winning hand in capital allocation and is critical to corporate longevity. If a company is being managed for the short term to maximize revenue, that’s not sustainable.” 

Here to Stay

Despite political noise, it seems some fund companies and investors alike continue to embrace ESG strategies.  Research indicates monitoring risks factors that may affect the sustainability of a company may prove to support higher potential returns.  Perhaps ESG strategies are finally “up the hill” as they seem to be a more common part of one’s investment strategy.

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator and Financial Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

---

The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.

Asset Flow Watch 2Q 2017

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

One of the most common ways to monitor consumer confidence and investor sentiment is to watch fund inflows and outflows. Market analysts use fund flows to measure sentiment within asset classes, sectors, or markets. This information (combined with other economic indicators) help identify trends and determine investment opportunities.

A new trend may be emerging as international fund flows are outpacing US fund flows in the second quarter. The move towards taxable bonds that began in January 2017 continued as investors have handled high U.S. stock valuations gingerly.

Asset Flows: What Investors Did This Quarter

An even distribution of flows went towards taxable bonds and international equities in April. The fear of France’s exit from the European Union dissipated as Emmanuel Macron won the French presidential elections. Accordingly, flows moved into foreign large blend funds. To boot, MSCI Emerging Markets Index returns (13.9%) increased inflows to diversified emerging markets. On the other hand, first quarter GDP growth (0.7%) and political unpredictability sucked life from post-election US equity inflows. 

By May, US equity deceleration evolved into outflows. International equity flows remained strong.  Taxable bond flows continued in spite of raised rates. Republican tax cut plans created municipals bond outflows; likely because investors don’t think federal tax exemptions will be as advantageous as they have been in the past. 

Early quarter trends have continued through June. As of June 21, 2017, US equity outflows were -$1.205 billion, international equity inflows were $1.467 billion, emerging markets inflows were $0.300 billion, and taxable bond inflows were $3.016 billion.

Is the US Equity Run Over?

While the debate about the end of the US equity run ensues among industry professionals, the discussion may be mute among investors. It appears that many investors, figuring the US recovery is further along than the rest of the world, have opted to either “play it conservative” with bonds or invest internationally where there is seemly more opportunity for equity values to grow.

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator and Financial Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

---

This information does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material; it has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. This information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making and investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk, investors may incur a profit or loss regardless of the strategy or strategies employed. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The MSCI Emerging Markets is designed to measure equity market performance in 25 emerging market indices. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks. Please note direct investment in any index is not possible.