Reconsidering Series I Savings Bonds

Contributed by: Kelsey Arvai, CFP®, MBA

In May 2022, I wrote a blog about The Basics of Series I Savings Bonds (I-bonds). At the time of my blog, inflation had been steadily increasing, making I-bonds very attractive for a brief period. With inflation starting to slow, it may be time to review this investment. Here are a few factors to consider when considering I-bonds regarding your individual financial circumstances and investment goals.

Interest rates: I-bonds are affected by changes in interest rates. If interest rates rise, the fixed rate on I bonds may become less competitive than other investment options. For example, if you bought an I-bond between May 2022 and October 2022, you would have received six months of interest at 9.62%. For the next six months (November 2022 to April 2023), you received 6.48% of interest. The new rate for your bond beginning in May 2023 is 4.3%.

The minimum holding period for an I bond is one year; however, if you cash in the bond before a five-year holding period, the previous three months of interest is surrendered. As rates have steadily declined, now is the time to consider if it is time to cash in. Ideally, you would hold the bond for three months past the one-year mark to give up the lowest interest rate, especially if you purchased an I-bond between May 2022 and October 2022. For more information, you can visit Treasury Direct on their website.

As mentioned earlier, the current composite rate of an I bond issued from May 2023 through October 2023 is 4.30%. Other short-term and low-risk investment options, such as CDs and Money Markets, are currently yielding higher returns in the 4% and 5% range. Depending on your goals, the I bond may be less attractive.

Inflation: I bonds were designed to provide protection against inflation. If inflation is expected to remain low or decrease, the variable rate of the I bond may be lower, which could make other investments more attractive. With inflation starting to slow, moving into another investment option is something to consider.

Investment goals: If you need access to your money in the near future or if you have other investment goals that require liquidity, I bonds may not be the best option. Conversely, money market funds are highly liquid near-term instruments intended to offer investors high liquidity with low risk.

Diversification: It is generally a good idea to diversify your investments to minimize risk. If you have a large portion of your portfolio invested in I bonds, you may want to consider diversifying into other asset classes.

It is important to consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Our Team of CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNERS™ are happy to help; reach out to us at 248-948-7900!

Kelsey Arvai, CFP®, MBA is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She facilitates back office functions for clients.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Kelsey Arvai, MBA, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

Summer 2022 Economics Summarized in 5 Charts

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Is inflation transitory again? Transitory was struck from the Federal Reserve's language after inflation didn't dwindle for a few months. But depending on your definition of short and long-term, it could still be viewed as transitory. Headline inflation was lower than expected for July, and most of the reduction came from energy. You can see the breakdown by month below.

Source: JP Morgan Weekly market update, BLS, FactSet

Unemployment hits a multi-decade low. This equates to difficulty in the hiring process for firms. Job openings are declining, but there are still two job openings for each unemployed person.

Source: Raymond James Weekly Headings

Source: U.S Department of Labor, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *JOLTS job openings from February 1974 to November 2000 are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates.  J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets – July 31, 2022.

Mortgage rates spiked and are coming back down, helping the affordability of buying a home again.

Source: Raymond James Weekly Headings

Yield curve inversion continues to steepen. There's much focus on the yield curve as it's usually an early signal for the economy slipping into recession (although technically, this definition has already been met with two negative quarters of GDP). This spells trouble for banks as they have to pay higher interest rates on short-term customer deposits like Certificate of Deposits but earn less on mortgages, for example. This money-losing gap can prompt banks to tighten up on lending.  

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statement, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability.

What to Expect Going Forward - The Economy and Your Investments

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®

At the beginning of the month, RJ released some market commentary with the striking line…

"While inflation fears remain high, it is likely that we are past peak inflation and the largest interest rate increases are behind us."

This year has been riddled with reasons to worry about the economy and your investments, but some encouraging data has been released that may provide some optimism. Jobs surprised on the upside early in August, the stock market has bounced off of its lows, personal consumption remains high, and we've seen gas prices come down to provide relief at the pumps.  

RJ ends the commentary with some more encouragement…

"We likely have more weakness to endure, but Joey Madere, senior portfolio strategist, Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy, says investors can expect positive returns over the next 12 months and beyond, given the view that economic weakness should be relatively mild and inflation will moderate. Long-term investors should anticipate an eventual rally on the other side of this weak trend and take advantage of potential buying opportunities. Bear markets go down 20% to 35% on average, but bull markets average roughly 150% returns.

While volatility feels uncomfortable, experience suggests that adaptability and a cool head will help weather any market environment and position for the future.”

It's been a rough year for most asset classes YTD. Still, the pain and uncertainty also provide opportunity as bond yields increase and stock valuations decrease, suggesting higher expected returns going forward. We're continually monitoring the changing environment and are happy to answer any questions you may have about how it all affects or doesn't affect your overall financial plan. 

Nicholas Boguth, CFA® is a Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

This market commentary is provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth, CFA® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

10 Investment Themes for Mid-Year 2022

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Along with this investment commentary, we'll be answering your most commonly asked questions during market volatility, recession, and inflation in our BONUS on-demand webinar.

The first half of 2022 has seen a surge in interest rates, volatile equity and bond markets, and geopolitical conflict. All while investors have been recalibrating their expectations on the Fed’s timeline for interest rate increases. Economic data shows soaring prices and a very tight labor market, strengthening the case for the Fed to take aggressive action to tame inflation. Complicating matters for the global economy, China’s Covid-related shutdowns have exacerbated supply chain disruptions.

During these uncertain times, we want to highlight ten different themes we are thinking about right now and how they may impact your investments. However, despite these themes, it is important to remember that your financial plan is the most important theme to us through all market conditions. The financial plans we design are built to withstand markets like we are experiencing today and even worse. Everyone uses a different map to chart their destination. Some destinations are a week away, and some destinations are years away. Rest assured, your plan is designed with your final destination in mind, and this type of volatility is expected along the way!

Theme 1: Rising Risk of Recession

While no one has officially declared that the U.S. is in a recession yet, it is looking more likely that we could enter one. Two-quarters of negative GDP (one of which has already happened in the first quarter) is the traditional definition of a recession. Politics and mid-term elections will impact whether we hear recession rhetoric out of Washington, but the definition is pretty clear. The National Bureau of Economic research weighs jobs, manufacturing, and real incomes when assessing whether or not we are in a recession and not just real GDP, so this is important information to watch.  

Theme 2: Inflation

Inflation has been more persistent than many anticipated this year (including the Fed). Government stimulus money is still in bank accounts, driving our desire to purchase, which hasn’t fully been spent. This past quarter is the first time in a long time that we have finally seen this number start to level off and come down. This is likely due to higher prices. Supply chain disruptions are still present, but we are feeling some relief. Remember the chart earlier in the year that we referenced showing over 100 container ships waiting outside Los Angeles and Long Beach, California (one of the biggest ports in the country)? That number is down to 34 as of May. Chip shortages continue to persist with no end in sight, forcing companies to innovate as much as possible to manufacture items like cars with fewer chips.

Theme 3: Interest Rates

In June, the Fed responded to the higher-than-expected inflation number with a .75% rate increase, bringing the Fed funds target rate to 1.75% after .25% and .5% rate increases earlier in the year. The Fed has shown that it is ready to fight inflation and update its plan accordingly as new information becomes available. The bond market is also expecting a .5%-.75% rate increase in July. The U.S. is not alone, as 45 central banks in other nations have also increased interest rates. If inflation starts to quiet and recession data starts to accelerate, the Fed could begin to pull back on its rate-hiking plans. Quantitative tightening (Q.T.) has also begun.

The chart below shows the rate of Q.T. for the $1 trillion run rate that is anticipated. In most months this year, the Fed will let the maturities happen and not replace those bonds. Most months show more maturities than is needed, so the Fed will still be buying bonds in these months. There are only two months this year where the Fed will need to actively trim some bonds from their balance sheet (the blue bar each month shows the amount of bonds maturing on their own, and the orange bar is the amount that the Fed would need to reduce by)

Theme 4: Geopolitical Conflicts

Sadly, the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues with no resolution in sight. While these headlines are not directly impacting day-to-day market moves anymore, their repercussions from sanctions on Russia continue to affect other macro-economic factors such as rising energy prices, which directly impact inflation.

Theme 5: Mid-Term Elections

As we look at the mid-term elections this November, it does look like the Blue Wave of Democratic control is on thin ice. The three things that are against the Democrats are:

History: History suggests that the incumbent party loses around 25- 30 seats during the mid-term elections.

President’s Approval Rating: The lower the President’s approval rating, the more significant the losses. With President Biden’s approval rating around 42%, that would suggest losses closer to the 30-seat level as it is lower than usual. But the question is - will his approval rating continue to languish in the low 40s?  

Retirement: This is also a headwind from Democrats’ bid to maintain the House, as 25 sitting Democrats are retiring. This is the largest number of Democrat retirements with a Democrat in office since 1996. 

Theme 6: Cryptocurrency Volatility

Cryptocurrencies continue to make headlines. This time, however, the headlines are related to the meltdown experienced. Last year, many people touted Cryptocurrencies as the only true inflation hedge…until they were not. In the past quarter, most Cryptocurrencies have dropped more than 50%. Coinmarketcap.com shows the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies reaching a high point of $2.9 trillion last November. As of the end of the quarter, that number fell to $850 billion – a 70% crash. Additionally, some individual cryptocurrencies have fallen over 90% just this year! Speculation and volatility are and will continue to be a hallmark of this asset. Proceed with caution if you do so on your own, as this is not an asset we recommend holding as part of your long-term asset allocation!

Theme 7: Do Something or Do Nothing?

Please continue reading to see what we are doing in portfolios right now. Investors often feel the need to do something when markets are volatile, as the fight or flight instinct has been ingrained into our being for hundreds of years. If you are doing something, ensure it is driven by the right reasons, as doing the wrong things can be very costly to your long-term financial success. The graph below shows that investors, as a whole, get the timing wrong by selling low and buying high. Following the herd can result in achieving almost 50% less return (orange bar below - 5.5%) than a buy and hold investor (yellow bar below - 10.7%). Let us worry about when it is time to do something as it is often best to buy and hold.

Theme 8: Elevated Oil Prices

Energy has by far been the best performing sector in the market, but this does not mean it will be the best performing sector in the future. Usually, by the time something is making headlines, the returns have already been booked. However, looking ahead, this bought of high gas prices will do more to spur our country toward utilizing renewable resources than any lobbying group or politician could hope to accomplish on their own. As fossil fuel prices continue to rise, alternative fuels are more cost-effective and can accelerate

Theme 9: Diversification

U.S. Large Cap stocks have been the darling asset class of the past decade, which has tempted many investors to ditch other asset classes in favor of more U.S. stocks. But as 2022 has shown, there is a considerable risk in concentrating your investments into one asset class if that asset class ends up being one of the worst performers of the year. We consider it especially risky to load up on a single asset class AFTER we have already seen a vast period of outperformance like in the U.S. stock market over the past ten years. 

Global valuations are much cheaper than they are here in the U.S. Studies have shown that lower valuations tend to suggest higher returns, which is another major reason to hold your international investments. 

Grandeur Peak, one of our international investment managers, referenced this quote in their quarterly letter that we believe applies to the question of U.S. vs. international investments today: 

“The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum ‘on average,’ it actually spends very little of its time there. Instead, it is almost always swinging toward or away from the extremes of its arc. But whenever the pendulum is near either extreme, it is inevitable that it will move back toward the midpoint sooner or later. In fact, it is the movement toward an extreme itself that supplies the energy for the swing back.” (Howard Marks, Memo to Clients, 4/11/1991)

2022 has been painful for investment performance across almost every asset class. The silver lining, in our opinion, is that diversification is still a success story. A diversified set of asset classes has dampened the drawdown so far this year, making the hard investment times a little less painful. 

Diversification is a core principle of the Center’s investment process, making international stocks, bonds, and other alternative asset classes key components of our portfolios going forward. 

Theme 10: Portfolio Management During Market Drawdowns

We have been busy behind the scenes tax-loss harvesting, thinking about timely Roth conversions, if that is a strategy you are employing, rebalancing, and ensuring cash needs are met. We are also monitoring factors that may tell us when to lighten up on or add to equities. While these factors are meant to trigger rarely, as there is a shift in incoming information from our broad set of barometers, there may be changes in our outlook and strategy.

We encourage you to watch our on-demand webinar if you are interested in hearing more. To access the webinar, enter your email address and the webinar will be accessible immediately after!

As always, feel free to reach out if you have additional questions. We are happy to help! Until next time, enjoy your summer.

Any opinions are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA/SIPC. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

The Basics of Series I Savings Bonds

Contributed by: Kelsey Arvai, MBA

Inflation has been steadily increasing, making Series I savings bonds (I bond), which are investments linked to inflation rates, a very attractive investment. I want to share some key points that will help you determine if it makes sense to consider adding them to your portfolio. 

I bonds are backed by the US Government and offered via Treasury Direct. I bonds earn interest based on both a fixed rate (0.0%) and a rate set twice a year based on inflation. The bonds earn interest until it reaches maturity at 30 years, or you cash it in, whichever comes first. 

Through October 2022, I bonds are earning an interest rate of 9.62%. Meaning that during the first six months that you own the bond, let's say from May 2022 through October 2022, your bond would earn interest at an annual rate of 9.62%. A new rate will be announced every six months based on your bond's fixed interest rate (0.00%) and inflation. The inflation rate is based on changes in the non-seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for all items, including food and energy.

I bonds are attractive but have many limitations and require a fair amount of legwork to acquire. The most significant restriction is that you can only buy $10,000 per year per person. You could also purchase $5,000 in a paper bond with your tax return if you're entitled to a return from the Federal government (although it's too late now unless you've filed an extension). 

To get started on purchasing an electronic I bond, you'd have to open an account with Treasury Direct online. Here is the website for more information.

There are some restrictions on who can own an I bond. You must have a Social Security Number and be a US citizen (whether you live in the US or abroad). You could also be a US resident or a civilian employee of the US, no matter where you live. Children under 18 are eligible for paper bonds as long as an adult buys the bonds in the child's name. Electronic bonds are available as long as a parent or other adult custodian opens a Treasury Direct Account that's linked to the adult's Treasury Direct account. If you'd like to see more about how to purchase a bond as a gift, you can watch a video here.

A few final notes to add, interest is compounded semi-annually. The bond's interest earned in the six previous months is added to the bond's principal value, creating a new principal value. Interest is then earned on the new principal. Rates can go up and down, but you must hold the bond for a minimum of one year, and if you cash out between the end of year one and year five, you could lose your prior three months of interest as a penalty. If inflation subsides, you could be staring at minimal interest rates. Zero is the lowest that the rate would go, so if we entered a period of deflation, there wouldn't be a negative interest rate. As always, consult your financial advisor before making any changes to your current portfolio.

Kelsey Arvai, MBA is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She facilitates back office functions for clients.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Kelsey Arvai, MBA, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.

How Do I Prepare my Portfolio for Inflation?

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Inflation is common in developed economies and is generally healthier than deflation. When consumers expect prices to rise, they purchase goods and services now rather than waiting until later. Inflation has continued to trend higher here in the U.S. over the past year, and many are now asking, "Can this harm my portfolio's ability to help me achieve my goals?" Consider the following factors contributing to or detracting from the inflation outlook.

Our investment committee has discussed inflation at length for several years now. Here are some highlights from our discussion.

Factors influencing inflation in the short term and long term:

1. Large amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus

There has been a record amount of stimulus being pushed into the pockets of Americans by the government. The consumer is healthier than it has ever been and demanding to purchase.

2. Supply chain disruptions  

Due to shipping constraints or lack of manpower, companies can't make enough of many different products to meet current demand. Does this sound familiar? It should; because two years ago, all we could talk about was not having enough toilet paper and disinfectant wipes. People were paying high prices for even small bottles of hand sanitizer. Fast forward two years and the shelves are now overflowing with these items as prices have normalized. Once people have spent the money they accumulated over the past two years and can purchase the goods and services they want when they want to, demand will likely return to normal.

3. Starting from a very low base 

The point to which we are comparing current inflation is one of the biggest influences on the calculation. For year over year inflation, we were comparing to an economy that had very little to no economic activity occurring and was still digging out of the hole the pandemic created. When you compare something to nothing, it looks much larger than it is. Now we are starting to compare to a more normalized time, so we should see this number trend downward simply because of this anomaly.

4. Wage inflation 

One of the biggest factors in the lack of inflation over the past decade was a lack of wage inflation. We are now seeing wage inflation because companies can't hire enough people to meet the current demand for their goods or services. Wages are going up trying to entice people back to work. For many years, no wage inflation at lower-paying jobs has culminated in a resetting of wages recently (it is likely wages settle at a higher base than they were before, but it doesn't mean they will continue to rise at the pace they have been).  

5. A complete lack of velocity of money

While banks are flush with cash, they still aren't lending. Why? Because the banks, due to banking regulation changes over ten years ago, only want to loan large amounts of money to someone who is creditworthy. Creditworthy consumers are so healthy that they don't need to borrow money.

6. Technology increasing productivity

A large portion of the country increased productivity by reducing commute time via remote working capabilities over the past two years. Companies that would never have considered allowing remote work now find themselves reducing office space and making permanent shifts in working style. This is just one example of how growth in technology can increase productivity which, over time, puts downward pressure on prices. The Center is an excellent example of this. While our team is back in the office, we work a hybrid schedule of several days in the office and several days remotely.

It is important to understand what investments could do well if we are surprised and inflation is around the corner.

First of all, your starting point is very important. Are you starting from low inflation, or are your inflation levels already elevated? The answer is we are starting from a long stretch of time with very low inflation rates. So in the chart below, you would reference the lower two boxes. Then it would be best if you asked, "Is inflation rising or falling?” Low and rising inflation is in the bottom left box. You may be surprised to see the strong, average performance from varying asset classes in this scenario. Inflation that is reasonable and expected can be a very positive scenario for many asset classes.

The past year had inflation prints that many investors saw as unreasonable and unexpected. Stocks and bonds struggled because of inflationary pressures. If inflation starts to moderate, as I think it will, fear should start to diminish. In the meantime, commodity-linked sectors and countries benefitted through positions held in portfolios like real asset holdings. Diversification remains important!

Inflation assumptions are fundamental in the financial planning process. This is why it's important that we utilize Monte Carlo simulations, meaning we plan for some pretty bad scenarios in the planning process. If you would like to gather more insight or an update on your plan, don't hesitate to give us a call!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios CFP® AIF®, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statement, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability.

US GDP Unexpectedly Gives a Negative Reading

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

As the U.S. Market entered correction territory (down 10%), another warning sign entered the state of the economy. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter fell at a 1.4% annualized pace. The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Below is a great visual of the makeup of GDP growth this past quarter, so we can dive deeper into what is making up the negative number.

Source: Washington Post

The consumer continued to hold up its end of the bargain fairly well, contributing to nearly 2% of GDP growth as shown by personal consumption. But much of the drag this quarter came from an excessive amount of net exports (pink area), which are a negative drag to GDP. These imports were the largest ever on record this quarter as businesses worried about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and front-loaded their imports. Also, consider that we are comparing against quarter 1 of 2021, which had a direct cash infusion by the Federal Reserve into consumers’ bank accounts. This quarter’s reading encompassed bad news like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the biggest spike in covid cases ever here in the U.S.

All of this negative news has weighed on investor sentiment. This reading is typically a contrarian indicator, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, but has recently registered the worst reading since 1992. Readings were not this bad during the 2008/2009 financial crisis! Usually, a reading like this is contrarian because a market bounce generally follows it to the upside. 

So, which indicator do you follow to make investment decisions? Often we get mixed signals from markets. It is best to determine what is important to pay attention to and what might be noise so that you can have an action plan built ahead of time during periods of stress. This is no easy task and is one of the main mistakes made by do-it-yourself investors. Planning is in our name, and the importance never diminishes. If you have questions and need to speak with someone, don’t hesitate to reach out to us!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

The forgoing is not a recommendation to buy or sell any individual security or any combination of securities. Be sure to contact a qualified professional regarding your particular situation before making any investment or withdrawal decision. The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP® AIF ®and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors.

Q1 2022 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Spring of 2022 feels as though it is bringing in a new wave of hope. There appears to be at least a reprieve (maybe nearing an end?) to the pandemic here in the U.S, and economic re-openings seem only to be limited by the number of staff members businesses can hire. However, the first quarter also brought many other headlines, including a severe escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, increased oil prices and inflation, and higher interest rates.

It has been a rocky start to the year with a diversified portfolio ending -5.34% (40% Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR (Bonds), 40% S&P 500 TR (US Large company stocks), and 20% MSCI EAFE NR (Developed International)). There seemed to be nowhere to hide this quarter as volatility was present worldwide in equities and the fixed income markets.

Source: Morningstar Direct

Is This Market Decline Normal?

This chart shows intra-year stock market declines (red dot and number) and the market’s return for the full year (gray bar). A couple of takeaways from the below chart are important:

• The market is capable of recovering from intra-year drops and finishing the year in positive territory.

• This year’s correction thus far does not stick out as anything other than normally experienced corrections, even though the reasons for it may not feel normal.

Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Returns based on price index only and do not include dividends.  Intra-year drops refer to the largesrtmarket drops from peak to trough during the year)

Yield Curve Inversion

You may have read that the yield curve briefly inverted toward the end of the quarter after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in this newest interest rate cycle. If not, check out our blog.

Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a signal for a coming recession. Imperfect of a signal as it is, we do take notice. This is one of several parameters we utilize at The Center for making portfolio decisions. The good news is, there is usually time before a recession hits if it does. Now that this signal has been triggered, we have a series of other signals we watch for before determining any appropriate action. Next, we seek to follow through on the economy and technical analysis because, as the chart below shows, the S&P 500 can continue to deliver positive returns (over 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) after the yield curve inverts but before recession strikes.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

While we may not be able to control if a recession occurs or not, we certainly can help you prepare. Here is a checklist of potential action items to consider when they happen. Many of which we take care of for you already. Any questions? Don’t hesitate to reach out!

Is Inflation Sticky?

The answer is…it depends. It depends on which contributors to inflation you are looking at. Energy is a good example. The price of a barrel of oil had a large spike (up 30%) and pullback (down 25%) all during the month of March caused by the Russia/Ukraine conflict and sanctions put in place against Russia who is a large exporter of oil (especially to Europe). Before the Russia/Ukraine conflict, energy prices rose steadily with the economic re-opening and supply limitations put in place by OPEC. This volatile component can become a large detractor just as quickly as it became a large contributor. This is why the Federal Reserve prefers to filter this noise out for its decision-making purpose and focus more on Core CPI numbers instead that eliminate food and energy due to their volatile nature. As the year continues, we may see inflation coming from the green, red, and purple areas below start to abate, leaving us with roughly 4-5% inflation (still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%).

Source: BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Russia/Ukraine Conflict

We will speak for everyone in saying that we are saddened by the tragic events taking place overseas in Ukraine. We continue to hope for a quick, peaceful resolution.

Markets have been increasingly volatile as the conflict unfolds, but the U.S. stock market has been shockingly positive since Russia invaded Ukraine. The one-month period from February 24th to March 24th showed the S&P 500 up ~5%. Or maybe that is not shocking when you look at how markets typically react to global conflicts. If you attended our investment event in February, you would have already seen this data. Still, the average time it has taken the market to recover from geopolitical conflict-induced drawdowns is only 47 days.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is shaking up stock markets, commodity markets, and providing even more uncertainty to domestic inflation and monetary/fiscal policy. During these times, it is important to remember that financial plans are built to withstand uncertainties. Diversification is more important now than ever. We will continue to monitor these events and keep you informed as we make decisions that may or may not affect investment allocations.

Key Takeaways

To summarize, here is what happened in the first quarter:

• Stocks and bonds struggled because of inflationary pressures.

• Commodity-linked sectors and countries benefitted, but on the other hand, growth assets and commodity importers struggled.

• Lastly, stating the obvious, the war in Ukraine has had a negative impact on Europe.

Now that we understand what happened, we are sure you want to know how we are responding.

1. We are monitoring our parameters to identify (if or) when it is necessary to adjust your bond to equity ratio and add duration back into the portfolio. Speaking of which, our parameters are telling us short bonds are still appropriate for investors. Remember, the higher the duration, the more a bond’s value will fall as interest rates rise. Consequently, we are maintaining a sleeve of your bond position in short-duration investments.

2. We are taking advantage of market volatility by tax-loss harvesting. Tax-loss harvesting helps minimize what you pay in capital gains taxes by offsetting your income.

3. Finally, we routinely review portfolios and rebalance them to capture cheap buying opportunities.

If you would like to gather more insight, we will include links to our most recent investment event and blogs. As always, we are here for you. Don’t hesitate to give us a call!

Explore More…

March FOMC Meeting: Rate Liftoff

Economic and Investment Outlook Webinar 2022

How Do I Prepare my Portfolio for Inflation?

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

March FOMC Meeting: Rate Liftoff

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

“The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry” is a nice way of saying bond market experts had beautifully laid out projections of interest rate increases for the rest of this year, but those projections have quite possibly been turned on their heads now that they are exposed to reality. However, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) began the potential upward march in interest rates with a .25% increase this month. 

Remember from my writing last year, the Fed increases interest rates in an effort to temper inflation. Recent events in Russia put the Fed in a difficult position because they feel pressured to move away from their ultra-accommodative policy. However, the longer the Russia/Ukraine conflict persists, the more unlikely it is that the US economy will be unscathed, as we are seeing with energy prices right now. Raising interest rates will not combat inflation caused by a spike in energy prices nearly as easily (not that it was easy before). It may even risk pushing the economy into a stagflationary environment (a period of low economic growth with high inflation).

The bonds markets have accounted for a large amount of these rate increases already (pricing six 0.25% rate increases in 2022, giving a 50% change of a .5% rate increase occurring at the next meeting in May). However, we are still seeing rates jitter up and down as bond markets try to digest rate liftoff coupled with inflation and the Russia/Ukraine crisis.

So while Chairman Powell is still standing firm that they will utilize increasing interest rates (approximately six more times this year) to combat inflation, plans can often change!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

This market commentary is provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

2021 Fourth Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

As we close the books on 2021 and move into 2022, we took a few minutes to re-read our thoughts as we started the year. There was a sense of hope that the recovery would continue, jobs would recover, and the world would start to normalize. There was also worry over finalizing the election and concerns of tax rate increases. While it has been a bumpy road, the year has ended better than where we began in some very important aspects like job recovery and dodging the bullet of widely higher taxes. We do have a fresh batch of worries but also optimism looking ahead to 2022.

A diversified benchmark portfolio consisting of 60% stocks (split 40/20 between U.S.-S&P 500 and International-MSCI EAFE) and 40% bonds (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) is up just over 12.5% for 2021, with the S&P 500 again leading the way at +28.71%, international stocks (MSCI EAFE) at +11.78%, and U.S. Aggregate Bonds at -1.54%. Please keep in mind indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns.

The good news is, for yet another year, the above hypothetical diversified portfolio would be up well over any targets we may have designed with you toward meeting financial planning goals; which should be an investor’s ultimate long term target.

Should we continue to diversify your portfolio?

Investors everywhere have been left wondering, “Why don’t I just own more U.S. stocks if they are producing such stellar returns this year while everything else (bonds or emerging) has produced very ho hum to negative results?” During these times, it is important to open our history books and remember the “lost decade.” 

We are referring to the 10 year time period throughout the 2000’s when the S&P 500 produced a negative total return. This was a very difficult time period starting with the burst of the dot-com bubble and ending with the financial crisis of 2008. Many felt like there was nowhere to hide during this time period. In reality however, those with a widely diversified portfolio had quite the opposite results. Sure a portion of their portfolio was flat to down but many of the other areas of their portfolio performed quite well over this decade, boosting their overall portfolio returns. The chart below illustrates average annual returns from some of the major Morningstar categories from 2000-2009.  The lost decade only applied to one type of investment one could own.

Chart and data courtesy John Hancock® Investments

The Center has a long history, being founded in 1985, so we have the benefit of guiding clients through many types of return environments. Coming into this lost decade, investors were asking us the very same questions we are hearing now, and the chart above shows us how that ended. While we don’t believe we are on the doorstep of another lost decade, we do feel it is not the time to abandon diversification. So, when you open your statements this year, you may see other well-known strategies that are roughly 60% Stock/40% bond up even less at just below 10% for the year. So, be careful before making any drastic changes to your portfolio. Talk to your financial planner first to determine how this might impact your long term goals!

What about Inflation?

People are saving less and spending more. Prior to the pandemic the savings rate, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, was roughly 7.5%, spiked up to almost 34% at the start of the pandemic in April 2020, and is now back down to 7.5%. With that large savings round trip, however, cash in bank accounts is still very high. Roughly $3.3 trillion of extra cash has accumulated in bank accounts by Americans (source: Longview Economics). All of this extra cash has served as fuel for inflation. As of the end of November, inflation readings hit a 40 year high of 6.8%. Food and energy were the main drivers of these readings. As stimulus slows, we should see spending (demand) in both of these areas level off and even decline a bit.

The Federal Reserve is now taking active measures to try to combat inflation. If you look at the history of interest rates, we have been very low for a long time. The Federal Reserve under chairs, Yellen and Powell, started to creep them back upwards as we emerged from the financial crisis. Then the pandemic struck and The Fed took them right back down near zero. Now the forecast is to start increasing rates again.

The last time we saw inflation at the levels we are at now was back in the early 1980’s. At that time, interest rates were quite high to try to bring inflation down. Sometimes we get the question of why increasing interest rates help to combat inflation. We love this question because it brings us back to the basics of economics!

Inflation is a result of too much money chasing too few goods. Right now, we have both scenarios of this equation playing out. Too much money (remember the paragraph above where we reference how much money households are holding?) chasing too few goods caused by supply chain disruptions. The basic recipe for inflation is in place. You also compound this by the base of comparison; inflation was next to nothing in 2020, teetering on the verge of deflation because no one was spending money. This is called demand-pull inflation for you economics nerds out there. There is also cost-push inflation happening and wages rising for lower income households. This also increases the price of goods and services (higher costs pushing prices higher).

So if low interest rates (cheap borrowing) and government stimulus has put money into our hands to spend and cause inflation, higher interest rates (more expensive borrowing) and no more government handouts should start to take money out of our hands for spending and therefore slowing the rate we buy things. With less demand comes lower prices or at least prices that rise at a slower pace. This is a long and slow process though. These moves by the Federal Reserve do not accomplish the task overnight. Higher interest rates take months to years to filter their way into the economy and slow inflation. Other forces may be present to help curb inflation in the new year as well. Our basis of comparison is going to rise steadily throughout 2022 and supply chain disruptions should start to ease.

Stocks are expensive.  Is now a bad time to buy?

Stocks were expensive at the start of last year too, but if you avoided the S&P 500 last year then you missed out on over 28% of returns. Valuations are not everything when it comes to stock returns, and trying to time the market rarely works in investors’ favor. We are not market timers, but we do monitor the yield curve, leading economic indicators, and various commentary resources for determining our outlook for equities and bonds. Right now, our signals are still saying neutral stocks to bonds. Our research has also found that forward market performance is not correlated highly with P/E ratios.

The below chart shows how uncorrelated valuations are as a short term indicator. Sometimes, with this reading as of November 30th, the market has been up 20-40% (gray dots above the orange line in the left hand chart) one year out and sometimes it has been down 20-30% (gray dots below the orange line in the left hand chart).  Five year forward returns were all positive and in most cases positive by more than 5-6%.

International valuations are the opposite story and have been for a long time too, yet they continue to underperform.  We continue to hold them as part of the allocation because of the compelling valuation story and importance of diversification. This chart is interesting because it shows how long you can be wrong making an investment call purely on valuation. The ACWI ex-US looked like a good deal versus the U.S. 10 years ago and we know how that story has ended.

The final thing we would like you to remember if you find yourself asking “is now a bad time to buy?” is that if your portfolio is diversified, then large U.S. stocks will only make up a portion of your portfolio. In a diversified 60/40 portfolio for instance, S&P 500 stocks might only make up ¼ of your total portfolio. The other asset classes should provide different return streams or even buffer the portfolio in the event of a U.S. stock market decline. Stick to your plan, rebalance according to it, and avoid making all-in or all-out decisions that could impair your financial future.

Looking forward to 2022

We should start to see interest rates increase and, therefore, we are favoring shorter duration bonds in portfolios for now. We want to continue to let your bonds be bonds and your stocks be stocks. Bonds continue to be an important portion of your portfolio to serve as a volatility dampener while we leave our equities free to generate returns needed to achieve your financial planning goals.

The CDC is relaxing quarantine guidelines as more and more information becomes known about transmutability of the virus. This should serve to start relaxing supply chain disruptions caused by virus spikes hopefully alleviating the transitory portion of inflation. Part of the reason the U.S. performed so strongly in 2021 was a continuation of the re-opening story. We resisted further economic shutdowns despite new waves of Covid outbreaks. Overseas was a different story as outbreaks brought continued sporadic shutdowns. As immunities build and the virus continues to (hopefully) evolve into weaker strains, we should see less of this supporting stronger rallies with overseas markets.

If you are interested in hearing more about our forward-looking views, join us in February for our Economic and Investment Outlook Event. Stay tuned for details in the upcoming weeks.

Remember, we are here to help you meet your investment goals, so feel free to reach out to the investment team or your planner anytime for support. On behalf of the entire Center Team, we wish you a wonderful 2022.

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.