Market Sector Impact of Donald Trump's Presidential Win

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

By appealing to white, blue collar voters, Donald Trump unexpectedly captured rustbelt states and secured the 2016 presidential election. Additionally, Republicans made a clean sweep taking both the House and Senate majority. Uncertainty remains as many await cabinet selections and the unveiling of comprehensive policy. Market industry professionals anticipate rising performance from equity sectors that benefit from tax reform, infrastructure stimulus, and deregulation. The “Post-Election Day Winners and Losers” chart gives us insight as to how market sectors have performed post-election. Below, I’ve explored how each sector could continue to win or lose under the Trump administration.

The Winners

Industrials/Materials: Throughout the campaign trail, Trump showed great enthusiasm for infrastructure spending. Accordingly, industrials picked up after the election. Civil infrastructure companies and military contractors will likely have more opportunity for government work under his administration. As a result, the material and industrial sectors should have legs to run. 

Energy: Companies linked to fossil fuel energy may see a lift under a Republican White House because of less regulation and slower adaptation to renewable energy. Trump’s support of coal energy positions the energy sector for rebound.

Healthcare: Assuredly, the Affordable Care Act is on the agenda for repeal under the Trump administration. Companies that have benefited from Obamacare may decline. In contrast, pharmaceutical and biotech stocks have rallied due to the President-elect’s relatively lenient stance on drug pricing. Yet, there are no sure signs this sector will remain a winner since Trump also favored prescription drugs importation (unconventional for GOP policy) during his campaign run. According to Morgan Stanley analysis, prescription drug importation could negatively impact pharmaceutical companies.

Financials: Banks have rallied as Trump’s victory points towards deregulating financials. Conversely, well-known investment management corporation, BlackRock, challenged that repealing the Dodd-Frank law may result in “simpler and blunter, but equally onerous rules.”

The Losers

Treasuries: As votes tallied in favor of Trump’s victory on election night, investors fled from equities to Treasuries. The risk-off approach, however, dissipated overnight; perhaps because Trump’s victory speech was more conciliatory than expected revealing hope for moderate governance. Ultimately, U.S. Treasury concerns hinge on whether Trump’s policies widen the deficit.

Emerging Markets: Mexico’s reliance on exports to the US leave it vulnerable to tariffs/trade wars, therefore, Mexico and countries alike (Brazil, Argentina, Columbia) could sell off. We’ve already witnessed the peso falling in response to Trump’s protectionist views. On the other hand, JPMorgan’s chief global strategist, Dr. David Kelly, encouraged investors to evaluate emerging markets by their own “strengths.” China and some countries in Latin America, for example, are adjusting well to growth and lack populous sentiment. Overall, emerging markets have forward momentum with improving economies, easing monetary policies, and a global focus on spending.

Developed Markets/Euro: Companies with money overseas in the technology, healthcare, industrials, and consumer discretionary sectors, could gain from Trump’s desire to incentivize business repatriation of offshore cash. Subsequently, the Euro has fallen provided high concentrations of US based multinationals’ earnings are in Europe.

Consumer Stocks: Consumer stocks could be hurt because tougher immigration restrictions may deter labor supply and consumer demand. Additionally, policies that force tariffs on countries like China and Mexico may unintentionally pass on the costs of tariffs to US consumers.

If you have questions about your portfolio or how these “winners and losers” might affect you and your future, please reach out to your planner. We’re always here to help and answer your questions!

Jaclyn Jackson is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Past performance may not be indicative of future results.

Webinar in Review: Summer Investment Update

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

As summer heats up so have the headlines! From Brexit to the Election there has been much for investors to digest so far this year. On Thursday, July 28th, Melissa Joy, CFP®, Partner and Director of Wealth Management, and Angela Palacios, CFP®, Director of Investments, hosted a webinar to update investors on the economy, stocks, bond, and all the exciting headlines.

We started the year with all eyes on the Federal Reserve Board as investors wondered when the next interest rate hike would occur.

They have been watching several data points on the economy to assist them in making this decision, including:

• Unemployment and Wage Inflation

• Inflation (Core Consumer Price Index)

• Gross Domestic Product Growth

On all points there hasn’t been enough strength shown yet by the economy for the Fed to justify raising rates further since the last rate hike in December.

The election cycle is now in full swing. Melissa discussed how Brexit, the United Kingdom vote to leave the European Union, and the election here are very telling of a constituency that is tired of the status quo. We expect headlines for Brexit to make waves in the market over the next couple of years, similar to what we remember from the Greek debt crisis a few years ago, as deadlines approach and negotiations of the separation ramp up. 

While politics here in the U.S. will cause some very interesting negative headlines in the next few months, election years overall are usually some of the better performing years (past performance is not a guarantee of future results) despite this. 

Focusing on interest rates we shared our thoughts on record low rates both here in the U.S. and around the world. Low to negative rates are becoming the trend around the world making high quality U.S. government debt extremely attractive to investors outside the U.S. This anomaly is keeping our rates very low despite a Federal Reserve Board that is slowly trying to increase rates.

While interest rates are low, many investors are turning more and more to equities to seek out yield and returns; however, it is important to remember that bonds have the potential to provide needed preservation even at these low rates during stock market corrections. When markets are comfortably up as we have seen this year investors often become complacent and don’t pay attention to their portfolios. Market highs present investors with some great opportunities to tune up their portfolios.

Melissa offered her checklist of what to do when markets are up:

• Make sure you have future cash needs set aside.

• Rebalance your portfolio.

• Consider charitable gifting.

• Reflect on your investment perspective.

• Make sure your plan is on track.

If you want to learn more on any of these topics check out the webinar recording below. If you still have questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to Melissa or Angela for further discussion.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy and Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

BREXIT—What the Separation Means for You

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

In case you missed it, Great Britain voted to leave the European Union yesterday. Here’s a recap of why this vote took place, what the arguments were on each side, and what the vote means for you, the U.S. investor.

It costs Great Britain nearly $10 billion to be a member of the European Union. What does a country like Great Britain gain from the $10B membership fee? The EU spends its budget on economic stabilization, job creation, and security for European citizens. Its members also get the benefit of being a part of the largest trade bloc in the world.

This vote took place now because David Cameron, Prime Minister of Great Britain, campaigned on the promise that he would negotiate better terms of Great Britain’s membership to the European Union. Great Britain has been at a divide for the past few years when it came to key issues related to the European Union. Proponents of leaving the EU cited issues such as the price tag of membership, weak borders as a result of the EU’s immigration and free movement of people policies, and the limit of business growth because of strict general lawmaking. The argument of those who wanted to remain in the EU was centered on the economic benefit of the trade bloc that allowed for free trade between Great Britain and the other members.

Now that Great Britain has voted to leave the EU, they will begin a two year negotiation to determine the details of the separation - the largest of issues being the details of trade between the now independent Great Britain and the remaining EU member countries.

This vote contributed to investor uncertainty in the previous months, and the decisions that are made over the next couple years will undoubtedly contribute to investor uncertainty as media outlets continue to make noise as they do all too well. The key for investors is to be able to filter through the noise to make well informed decisions. Events such as Brexit are great examples of systematic risk that contributes to volatility and risk in portfolios, something that we continually monitor in our portfolios here at The Center. 

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

Sell in May and Go Away, Revisited

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Questions arising during this election year have prompted me to revisit an old topic. This election year seems anything but average (or at the very least entertaining), but what happens when you layer in the old debate of whether it is a good idea to, “Sell in May and go away.” Will this election year be different? 

Markets tend to have their stronger performance between October and May, which, despite a major bump in the road during January and February this year, has certainly held true in the past year. 

This chart is for illustration purposes only.

There are many theories as to why this could be true:

• Investors tend to fund their IRA accounts either early or later in the year.
• There could be lower summer productivity for business.
• And the most obvious, people prefer to be outside rather than inside investing their money (especially in Michigan).

However, this year could be different. If you look at monthly returns in Election years the above picture is contradicted.

This chart is for illustration purposes only

Strategies involving the short-term timing of the markets usually end up hurting investors rather than preserving or boosting returns, so take caution.

I am often asked if investing should be held off until after the election during years like this. However, I believe experience teaches us that we are better off if we keep our voting and investing decisions separate.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to The Center blog.

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Source: The Big Picturehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Chinese Stock Market Manipulation

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Since last summer the Chinese government has played a very active role in manipulating their own stock market. Which markets are affected can be very confusing as there are many different exchanges and types of shares that can be purchased.

Chinese Equity Markets: A Tutorial

The Shanghai exchange houses the A share stock market. These are the shares of Chinese companies that are available mostly to domestic Chinese investors (who in most cases are prohibited to invest outside of this market) and institutional investors granted special permission by the Chinese government, denominated in their local currency, the Renminbi. This currency is no longer pegged to just the U.S. Dollar but rather to a basket of currencies. See my colleague, Nick Boguth’s blog regarding the state of China’s Currency.

In contrast, the Hong Kong exchange houses the H share market which is shares of Chinese companies available to investors outside China and can be freely traded by anyone. H shares trade in Hong Kong dollars. In contrast to mainland China, Hong Kong dollars are still pegged to the U.S. Dollar.

B shares, while lesser known than A & H shares, are also available and these are Chinese companies with a face value in Renminbi, but trading in U.S. Dollars on the Shanghai exchange. These are available to foreign investors as well as Chinese investors who have foreign currency accounts.

There has been a huge difference in company prices that trade on both A and H share exchanges and there is no channel to arbitrage this away. A shares ran up coming into the summer of 2015 causing a huge imbalance when compared to the H share market. This means investors in the A share portion of the market were paying far more for a company than investors in the H share market. On the flip side the A shares have declined much more sharply than the H share market as well.

The Pressure in China Picks up

China is nearing the end of incredible growth. It built up far too much capacity and credit. As the economic slowdown in China began to accelerate, volatility in the stock market started to pick up in the middle of 2015 spilling over into our markets here in the U.S. The Chinese government has had to step in to stem the bleeding created by A share sellers. 

A Timeline of Market Manipulation

The government became a buyer of shares on the weakest days and then took even further steps last July suspending the holders of 72% of A share stocks the ability to sell their stock for six months. Investors that held at least 5% of a company’s outstanding stock was simply no longer allowed to sell it. Communism at its best! 

In early January 2016 this ban on sales was set to expire and there was much worry that volatility would come back, which it did. At this point, January 4, 2016, the government put controversial breakers in place to halt trading in case of extreme selling on the A share market, disbanding them only four days later after the widespread panic this caused. They ended up suspending/halting trading twice in this short time. In contrast, H share markets were down also on these days but far less than the A share markets before the halt.

In place of the circuit breakers, China came up with a plan to restrict stock sales again by these large shareholders. At this point a stockholder who owns more than 5% of a company is required to sell shares only through private transactions to help avoid shocks to the market.

With so much intervention we are left wondering if a free market even exists over there and if there ever was one to begin with. Thankfully the selling pressure has slowed and markets both there and here have quieted down a bit. As always though, it will be interesting to watch how events and markets unfold the remainder of this year!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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“The ABCs of China’s Share Markets by Mark Mobius http://www.cnbc.com/id/

http://www.voyagercapitalmgt.com/an-update-on-china/

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-09/china-shows-how-to-destroy-a-market

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Opinions expressed in the attached articles are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Please include: Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

March Madness: How the Tournament Reflects your Investments

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

I usually don’t think about investments when March Madness rolls around, however this year the correlation is hard to get out of my mind. The past year in the markets has mimicked the past year of NCAA men’s basketball. The markets have been volatile since mid-2015 because of China’s shaky economy and the pending rate hike here in the U.S. In August, we watched the S&P 500 drop almost 200 points and investors wondered, “What is going on?!?!” At the same time, the men’s basketball rankings have been more volatile than they ever have been historically. North Carolina owned the #1 ranking title in the preseason, and then was quickly edged out by Kentucky, who got pushed out by Michigan State, then Kansas, then Oklahoma, then Villanova, and finally back to Kansas leaving basketball fans thinking, “What is going on?!?!”

Now it’s March, which means it’s time to fill out your bracket. There are a total of 63 games that will be played to determine the champion. Correctly predicting the outcome of all 63 of those games is about as likely as getting struck by lightning 5 times this year. Warren Buffet, who in the past has offered $1 billion to anyone who filled out a perfect bracket, must have gotten bored with that challenge and instead is offering $1 million every year for life to any of his employees that correctly guess every game in the first 2 rounds correctly (still extremely unlikely). So, what will your strategy be when filling out your bracket?

There is no guaranteed way to make money when investing, just like there is no guaranteed way to pick the final four teams of the tournament correctly. Sure, you can pick the four #1 seeds and hope that they make it to the final four, just like you can look back and pick the 4 investments or securities that performed the best last year and hope that they outperform again this year, but as we all know from the infamous investing disclaimer, “past performance is no guarantee of future results.” In fact, only picking the #1 seeds in the bracket has left you with the correct final four just ONE time in the entire tournament’s history.

So, odds are that you are not going to pick every winner of the tournament. As investors, there is also a slim chance that you pick every one of your investments correctly and every one of them increases year after year. This is why diversification is key—Jaclyn Jackson recently explained this concept in more detail (which can be found here).That is where talking to a NCAA bracket specialist or an investment professional can help. The correct diversification can ultimately help you reach your end goal, no matter who the #1 seed is.

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

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Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Economic and Investment Update for 2016

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

In early February, Melissa Joy, CFP®, Partner and Director of Wealth Management at The Center, was joined by David Lebowitz, Vice President and Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan, to discuss timely economic and market updates.

David kicked off the presentation by answering 3 questions:

1. Where are we in the (current economic) cycle?

2. What should we watch out for?

3. Where are the opportunities?

J.P. Morgan built a strong case for the U.S. Economy sitting at positive GDP growth (Gross Domestic Product), the improving job market, as well as, corporate profits, and subdued inflation for the foreseeable future.

David also pointed out items to watch out for, such as low oil having a positive effect on consumer’s wallets, the continued higher volatility we are currently experiencing is more in line with history rather than the low volatility environment we have become accustomed to, and being careful of investment biases sneaking into your portfolio causing undue risk.

Opportunities are still out there for investment growth but David stressed that the ride is as important as the destination. A balanced portfolio is like a sword and a shield for investors. Your sword, or equities, has the potential to give you the long term growth needed to help reach goals but your shield, or fixed income can help give you the defense to make your investment journey more comfortable.

Melissa continued with several history lessons stressing the importance of patience and that it often pays off when investing. She discussed top headlines in the news such as the elections and interest rate hikes and how these items will affect investors over the coming year.

Below is a link to the presentation slides referenced throughout that emphasize the key points Melissa and David discussed. As well, there is the recording of the webinar that Melissa and David held, that has further information and discussion.

• Watch the full webinar presentation below

• February 2016 Webinar slides

• J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets is a widely popular presentation on the state of the economy and various markets.  By clicking on the link you will be taken to the guide in it’s entirety.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

Making Sense of Market Volatility

Contributed by: Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD

Dear Clients & Friends:

At the risk of stating the obvious, the equity markets experienced some wild swings toward the end of August.  When I was interviewed by Channel 4’s Rod Meloni on August 25th – the 2nd consecutive day of the stock slide – I talked about opportunities I see.  But Rod described it best when he said Cedar Point had nothing on the US Stock market – quite a rollercoaster. 

I’d like to walk you through where the equity markets stand as of September 1, 2015, share some insights as to some of the factors that may have led to such volatility, discuss what may occur in the near future, and importantly what you might do.

Where do equity markets stand on September 1, 2015?

The three major domestic indexes plunged and rallied in quick succession, but ended the month down more than 6%, with the broad-market Standard & Poor’s 500 marking its worst month in three years. International stocks, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index fared a bit worse than their US counterparts.

What combination of factors got us here?

It is natural to seek “causes” or an explanation when stocks go on a wild ride (which is more often than we think). Though there’s no easy answer, here are 4 contributors:

1. China: As my colleague Angela Palacios shared in our August 25th Investment Commentary, weak or at least slowing growth in China is the most widely cited cause of the stock market pullback. After decades of rapid economic growth, recent evidence has shown that China’s growth is slowing. The central bank of the world’s second-largest economy devalued its currency in an attempt to stimulate growth and thwart a stock-market bubble. After those efforts proved futile, Chinese stocks dropped and concerns about growth in China and across the globe sent stocks around the world plunging soon after. The primary Chinese stock exchange, the Shanghai Composite Index, has dropped roughly 40 percent since its June peak.

2. Falling oil, commodity prices: Oil prices are hitting lows not seen in years due to falling demand, oversupply and concerns over global economic growth. Other commodity prices have also declined due to economic growth fears.

3. Interest rate uncertainty: Short-term interest rates have hovered near zero since the 2008 financial crisis. The U.S. economy has recovered enough that the Federal Reserve has indicated it will raise interest rates and return to more normalized monetary policy in the months ahead. Uncertainty over the timing has weighed on investor sentiment, further muddying the timeline for a hike. Falling values in U.S. and world equities complicate the Fed’s decision.

4. Natural market cycles: Markets are cyclical in nature. Declines, though unsettling, are normal and necessary when asset prices climb too high. The S&P 500 index has steadily risen since March 2009, but hadn’t experienced a 10 percent correction since mid-2011. Analysis by Raymond James experts shows the S&P 500, on average, endures three 5-percent pullbacks and one 10-percent correction every year.

Certainly no one knows for sure – but we believe that the four forces above provide a significant part of the explanation or cause.

Will there be a retest of the recent market lows?

After seeing a nearly 10% drop in stocks, stocks rebounded rather quickly by what Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James, would term a “throwback rally” – something that is rather normal from a historical standpoint.  Jeff also points out:

“The follow-up from a 2 – 7 session ‘throwback rally,’ from a massively oversold condition, typically leads to a downside retest.”

Moreover, it looks like that retest began Monday 8/31/15. According to Jeff Saut, a key factor will be whether a retest brings about new lows (below 1867); which could mean further losses.

Another market commentator and Wharton finance professor, Jeremy Siegel, opined recently:

“When there’s a sharp decline and then a rally, usually you’ll get another downward leg that will test that decline.”

According to Professor Siegel, the Dow Jones may ultimately drop 15% from recent highs before recovering to around 19,000 by year-end. He doesn’t see a recession in the US or a bear market.  Time will tell – Saut and Siegel are veterans with vast historical perspective.

While some of the more negative news is grabbing the headlines, as you would expect there are a variety of balancing factors at play.

Recent data reports continue to suggest moderately strong growth in the U.S. economy. Consumer spending improved in July, durable goods orders increased, the housing market is strengthening, and household income advanced. The estimate of second quarter GDP growth was revised to a 3.7% annualized rate (from 2.3% in the advance estimate).

Oil prices reached a six-year low in recent weeks, which should be good for the American consumer, but less so for energy companies. Still, as energy prices stabilize, inflation should move somewhat higher and Federal Reserve policymakers will begin to raise short-term interest rates ahead of that.

The Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming saw central bankers discussing inflation, the global economy and the fallout from China’s economic woes, but officials provided no clear guidance as to the timing of the first increase in the federal funds target rate. The St. Louis and Cleveland Fed Bank presidents reiterated, ahead of the retreat, that U.S. fundamentals remain strong and a September rate hike is still a possibility.

“It shouldn’t really matter whether the Fed begins to raise rates in September, late October, or mid-December,” noted Raymond James Chief Economist Scott Brown on August 31st. “The important thing is the pace of tightening beyond that first move …The economy has made enough progress and is strong enough that it can easily withstand a small increase in rates.”

A retest is certainly possible, but recession is not imminent and many see higher stock prices by year-end.

What to Do?

During volatile times, dispensing the advice of “Do nothing because you’re a long term investor” almost seems pedestrian and stale.  As shared by Angela, a few things to consider include (1) Make sure your long-term allocation is still appropriate, (2) Double check that your time frame is correct for the investments in your portfolio, and(3) Review and consider your risk tolerance for those investments.  Additionally, while all of the news on bonds in general is negative due to expected interest rate increases – US Treasuries and high quality corporate bonds still provide some of the best diversification or negative correlation when stocks slump.  Additionally, this is a good reminder to review expected cash needs and set aside the appropriate amount.

I’m sharing all this with you to keep you informed about global economic movements and market events. I understand that seeing the short-term impact of volatility on your portfolio can be unsettling. During uncertain times, it can be assuring to stick to the investment strategy that we have developed together. For 30 years now, The Center’s focus has remained on disciplined investing and it has served generations of clients. In the meantime, we’ll continue to monitor market developments and update you accordingly.  Should you have any questions about the markets or your long-term financial plan, feel free to contact us. We are here to help.

Sincerely,

Timothy Wyman, CFP™, JD

Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD is the Managing Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and is a contributor to national media and publications such as Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on Good Morning America Weekend Edition and WDIV Channel 4. A leader in his profession, Tim served on the National Board of Directors for the 28,000 member Financial Planning Association™ (FPA®), mentored many CFP® practitioners and is a frequent speaker to organizations and businesses on various financial planning topics.

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The opinions expressed in this update are those of Timothy Wyman and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James, and is subject to change without notice.

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Past performance is not an indication of future results and there is no assurance the trends mentioned will continue or that any forecasted events will occur. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. The process of rebalancing may result in tax consequences.

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by e-mail, voice mail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. E-mail sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all e-mail. Any information provided in this e-mail has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this e-mail. This e-mail is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.

Tim Wyman: Now is the Time to Rebalance Your Portfolio

Contributed by: Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD

The end of August for investors might have felt like a ride at Cedar Point. The downs were jarring, the ups exhilarating. In the midst of consecutive days of corrections, Detroit News Financial Editor Brian J. O’Connor interviewed The Center’s managing partner Tim Wyman.

“We investors have been pretty spoiled the last few years with low volatility, and these corrections are certainly more common than people think,” Tim said. “This latest correct is certainly nerve-wracking, but it’s common. This time it’s not different and a prudent, long-term focus will  prevail.”

Shifting investors’ focus from immediate headlines about China, Europe, the Federal Reserve and oil to the long-term may be easier in a bull market. But Tim says concerns should stiffen your resolve.

How Should I React?

When it comes to your next move, Tim told Detroit News that history suggests now is the time to rebalance your portfolio. Taking a look at your mix of stocks, bonds and assets on a quarterly basis is always a good practice, but doing it now makes sense.

“Research suggests that if you rebalance when there are large swings you get the biggest bang,” Tim said. “So this is an ideal time to be rebalancing. Some of that will mean increasing your stock allocation at this time. It’s hard to do, but we know it’s the right thing to do.”

Is the six-and-a-half year historic bull market over? The indicators aren’t pointing to a recession. But during this seesaw of the market, it is time to focus on the long term and consider rebalancing. If you’re ready to take a look at your portfolio, we’re here to help.

Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD is the Managing Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and is a contributor to national media and publications such as Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on Good Morning America Weekend Edition and WDIV Channel 4. A leader in his profession, Tim served on the National Board of Directors for the 28,000 member Financial Planning Association™ (FPA®), mentored many CFP® practitioners and is a frequent speaker to organizations and businesses on various financial planning topics.

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The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Tim Wyman and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

When the experts need financial perspective – who do they call? Center for Financial Planning of course

Contributed by: Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

Rod Meloni of Channel 4 visited with Tim Wyman, CFP®, JD on August 24, 2015 as he breaks down the market turmoil. 

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of speakers and Tim Wyman and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions of Rod Meloni. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. C15-034569