Q3 2024 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP®

This year has been off to a solid start as the melt-up continues. Even during what is usually the worst performing month on average, September, markets rallied. Mega-cap US tech stocks have remained a standout this year again and have driven much of the returns for the S&P 500 for the first half of the year. But, since then, we have seen participation from other areas of the market, such as international, particularly emerging markets, and small company stocks that have made a strong showing since interest rate cuts were back on the table and inflation continued to abate. Bonds have been positive by about the interest they have paid this year, and the Federal Reserve has started to cut interest rates with a .5% cut in September. Interest rate expectations and inflation news have been the major drivers of market returns so far this year. You may have noticed that I have left the election out of this list because the election hasn’t really driven market volatility so far. If you want to learn more about the relationship between elections and markets, check out a replay of our webinar from last month!

As we approach election day, the headlines could potentially drive some short-term volatility and, certainly, our emotions, but historically, long-term markets are driven far more by factors like economic growth, Federal Reserve direction, and fundamentals like growth and valuation. It is very likely that the outcome of the election won’t be settled by the time we wake up the next day, so this could possibly cause some short-term volatility, but we wouldn’t expect this to be sustained. A last note on politics: it is worth mentioning that Congress averted a government shutdown through the passage of a stopgap bill to fund the government through December 20. At that time, we could possibly see some political posturing surrounding this topic again, so we expect to see more headlines surrounding this late in the year. Markets tend to shrug off these headlines as we have “been there, done that” many times before.

GDP

Since the economy is a bigger driver of long-term returns, we should check in on this. As you can see from the chart below, the Federal Reserve seems to be engineering this soft landing they were hoping for.  Inflation and wages continue to come down, unemployment has grown slowly this year, retail sales have slowed a bit, and GDP shows a slowing in this chart but has since had somewhat stronger readings as the year has gone on.

Sources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Data as of 29 March 2024 for GDP and 31 May 2024 for other statistics.  Retail sails = adjusted retail and food services sales.  Wages = average hourly earnings.

Interestingly, Economic data is almost always revised after the fact. Data points such as how many people in an entire country are looking for jobs, how much money every citizen in a country has earned/spent/saved, or how much the prices of everything in a country have changed – these are pretty hard to track. This quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised GDP upwards by .3% in 2021, .6% in 2022, and .1% in 2023. Turns out we (consumers) spent more money than previously calculated in the past few years. Remember when we had two negative quarters of GDP growth in early 2022 (which is the technical definition of a recession), but a recession was never declared? Now, with revisions, there weren't actually two negative quarters of GDP growth. The 2nd quarter of 2022 was revised into positive growth rather than negative growth.

Headlines and Inflation

Inflation is still under the microscope despite the Fed shifting gears from the past couple of years' rate-hike environment into the rate-cut environment it has established going forward. The market will likely be watching economic data as it rolls in and reacting accordingly, as it weighs the odds of increasing inflation (and the potential reaction of the Fed moving slower with its rate cuts) OR continued disinflation/deflation (and the potential reaction of the Fed moving faster with its rate cuts). Recently, there have been some headlines of OPEC increasing oil production, which could possibly put downward pressure on oil prices. At the same time, strikes are beginning at ports on the East Coast, which could potentially slow down supply chains and put upward pressure on prices.

Yield Curve UN-Inversion

About two and a half years ago, the yield curve inverted. You can see this in the chart below, with the blue line dropping below 0 (meaning short-term rates are yielding greater than long-term rates).  We wrote about it then and shared that despite the warning sign – stocks still were positive a majority of the time 1 and 2 years later. 2022 was a rough year for both the stock and bond markets, but here we are 2.5 years later, and the S&P 500 is back, making new all-time highs.

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y

Last month, the yield curve UN-inverted (see that blue line above moving back above 0). You may have seen news articles directing attention to THAT event as the event that typically precedes recessions. It is hard to focus on the signal over the noise when the noise is so loud in our daily lives, from 24/7 media coverage to daily newspapers and endless social media feeds, but looking back on the last ten times, the yield curve UN-inverted:

• 8 out of 10 times, the S&P 500 was higher the next year.

• 10 out of 10 times, the S&P 500 was higher ten years later.

Source: Morningstar Direct. S&P 500 TR (USD)

So, what does this mean for your portfolio?

After this first rate cut by the FED, the yield curve UN-inverted AND it is looking like the FED has successfully engineered a soft landing. History can generally be a useful guide to understand how different assets (beyond just US Large cap) performed in this time period. Typically, you see risk assets doing well for equities, while in fixed income, quality tends to shine. Certain asset classes may have a little more tailwind behind them because of starting valuations and a scenario layered in where we have had high but falling inflation, so while the outcome may rhyme, it probably won't be identical to below.

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets made some noteworthy moves recently. Outside China, India, and Taiwan are experiencing excellent performance driven by monetary policy easing and their technology sectors. However, China has had some significant developments, causing them to play a bit of catchup recently. Chinese leaders announced several monetary policy initiatives that drove their recent equity return spike. First was a 50 basis point (bps) cut to the reserve requirements (the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve against deposits). Second, they cut existing mortgage loan interest rates by 50bps. Other initiatives were also put into place to kickstart their economy. While the path forward could be bumpy, several factors remain a potential tailwind, such as reasonable valuations and company fundamentals and easing monetary policy.

Small Cap Stock Performance

Small cap stocks have been lagging their large cap counterparts for most of the last decade, but this quarter we saw one of the biggest moves in recent history from the asset class. Early in the quarter, there was a huge divergence, and small cap stocks provided a boost to portfolios. The Russell 2000 index ended the quarter +9.3%, beating out the S&P 500 index that was only up +5.9%. Many attributed the outperformance to the market reacting to a potential lower interest rate environment as it looked more certain that the Fed would be cutting rates, the cheaper starting valuations of the small cap asset class, and the overall higher volatility expected from the smaller and less liquid stocks. Whatever the catalyst was, many investors who have been waiting a long time for small cap outperformance were rewarded this past quarter.

While most of us invest with an eye years or decades into the future, short-term market swings can still trigger strong emotional reactions and sometimes push normally calm investors to become short-term traders rather than long-term investors. A properly allocated portfolio and enough cash to fund short-term needs can help to allay an emotional response that might derail your long-term plan. Is your portfolio appropriately positioned for your situation? As always, we are here to help!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP® is a Senior Portfolio Manager and Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and Nick Boguth, CFA®, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Q2 2024 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP®

When the circumstances change, our perspective evolves. This anthem of the past year highlights the importance of adaptability and openness to new information. But as much as things have changed this year, much has stayed the same. Megacap tech stocks are still driving the S&P 500 gradually upward for the year. The S&P 500 has had the best start to a presidential reelection year by logging 31 record highs this year and low volatility. Interest rates are still high. Stocks are performing better than bonds, while the U.S. continues to trounce international and large company stocks, which continue to beat small company stocks. 

Elections

The remainder of the summer and fall will surely be dominated by election headlines. Because elections can be divisive and unnerving, it's important to remember that markets are often resilient even in the face of the most unsettling election scenarios. Watch for an invitation to our upcoming election event to hear more details on this topic, but here are some quick observations:

• U.S. stocks trend upward on average in election years regardless of which candidate wins the White House

• Balanced portfolios historically help investors meet their financial planning objectives while managing risk over presidential terms

• It's time in the market and not timing that matters the most for an investor; sitting on the sidelines with long-term assets sitting in cash can be costly to a long-term investment strategy

If you look at average and median returns through a presidential cycle, you can see that election years tend to be strongly positive. Historically, median returns are over 10% in an election year, with average returns over 7% in an election year. 

Returns also tend to come more strongly in the second half of the election year, as shown in the chart below. This year has broken the mold with strong returns through the first half of the year. Usually, when this happens, there tends to continue to be strong returns also through the second half of the year.

What Has Led to These Strongly Positive Returns?

While higher interest rates and high inflation seem like a staple part of the economy now, it is easy to forget that we enjoyed decades of low interest rates, low inflation and globalization that drove those trends.

Inflation has resumed its slow march downward despite a small pause this year and some numbers that had looked like they might be turning back upward. It seems unlikely that inflation will accelerate and should continue to resume the disinflation trend. Now, most of the inflation comes from shelter costs, and we have seen rent prices level off and slow slightly. Rent prices starting to come down should help this source of inflation. You also may have noticed your insurance rates increasing. Car insurance has contributed notably to recent inflation numbers. 

Many consumers still feel the sting of higher prices because slowing inflation only means prices aren't going up at the pace they were. The price increases we experienced over the past several years are here to stay and will need to be permanently factored into budgets going forward. Many households have found substitutes by shopping around at bargain retailers, and some have been lucky enough to experience wage inflation (although not enough to offset economic inflation.

Interest Rates and The Fed

It is hard to talk about inflation without discussing The Federal Reserve and the current interest rate environment. As of the end of the quarter, the 1-year treasury rate was ~5.1%, and the 10-year treasury rate was ~4.4%. You are still getting paid MORE in short-term bonds than you are in longer-term bonds – that is strange! In a normal interest rate environment, you would get a higher coupon from longer bonds because, in return, you are taking on more risk and uncertainty from the longer time until maturity.

This environment has made it much more attractive to hold money market funds, CDs, and other short-term instruments, BUT those are not without risks of their own. If the 10-year rate falls, for example, then the risk of being in the short-term bond is that you will miss out on the price gains of the 10-year bond, and if short-term rates fall as well, then you will have to reinvest your money at a lower interest rate once your bond matures. Without knowing the path of interest rates going forward, there is no way to know with certainty which type of bond will outperform. However, we are here to help make sure your portfolio is positioned well for YOUR financial plan.

Speaking of the path of interest rates, despite inflation heading in the direction that the Fed wants, they kept the Fed Funds rate steady at the same rate as it has been for almost the past year: 5.25-5.5%. There are advocates on each side of the argument saying that they should have cut rates already OR that they should even keep further hikes on the table. Jerome Powell continues to stress data dependence and their commitment to the 2% inflation target, and this sentiment is shown in bond rates as rate cut expectations have continually been priced out of the market year-to-date. No one has control over inflation numbers, the Fed, interest rates, or the stock market – you have to  invest given the hand you are dealt.

AI and Meme Stocks

Several investment crazes have filtered into this stock market rally; some have long-term validity, and some don't. The evolving landscape surrounding artificial intelligence has strongly impacted any company investing heavily in it. Nvidia corporation has been the poster child of a rally surrounding artificial intelligence, which has been up very strongly this year, even though it has recently pulled back some. Nvidia is viewed as a pioneer in the space as its business shifted from gaming consoles to data centers where its chips now power large language models like ChatGPT.  Meanwhile, Gamestop found itself in the middle of the meme stock craze again. While returns attributed to meme stock hype are usually short-lived, the idea of social media heavily influencing trading performance is something the markets are still trying to make sense of. While investing in a long-term productivity enhancement like artificial intelligence can drive long-term fundamental returns, meme stocks are more about hype and short-term volatility.

Hopefully, you take a few moments to check out the Olympics this month. I am often in awe of the amazing talent seen from around the world. That kind of talent comes from a lifetime of diligence and hard work, much like successful investing. Natural ability or luck can only take you so far and can't be counted on. Athletes must train in various muscle groups and mental stamina to be successful. Much like athletes rely on diversified training in investing, we rely on asset diversification, good investor behavior, and consistent saving over time to reach our finish line. We are here to help ensure your investments are helping you reach the finish line no matter what the market environment looks like. Don't ever hesitate to reach out with any questions you may have.

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP® is a Senior Portfolio Manager and Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and Nick Boguth, CFA®, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Q1 2024 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP®

As the 4-year anniversary of the Covid stock market correction came and went last month, markets have given historians and economists much to reflect on. Since the consumer is the major driver of the U.S. economy, the aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic stay-at-home policies and the economic reopening policies meant it has taken several years for a recession to roll through the economy. This uncorrelation of the sector effects has made this business cycle feel quite different. For example, when staying at home, we shifted our spending to either saving money or spending on goods rather than services, causing a major recession and unemployment in the services industry (remember when we couldn’t travel and instead spent our money on things like a Peloton!). Once herd immunity was achieved, we shifted our spending patterns from goods to services and travel, causing recessionary characteristics to roll through the manufacturing industry. This lack of synchronization has caused the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) to not call a recession here in the U.S. even though we met the official definition of one back in 2022 of two negative quarters of GDP growth (Gross Domestic Product).

Recently, the manufacturing numbers, as measured by the ISM index (a leading economic indicator), finally climbed out of recessionary territory (below 50 readings) after a 16-month continuous streak of contractions. This is the longest contractionary steak since 2002! If you couple this with a recovery in new home building permits (another leading indicator), it looks more and more likely that the Federal Reserve has been successful in engineering a soft landing. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index also rose in March for the first time in two years!

The stock market agrees as the year has started out very strongly, with U.S. stocks up over 10.5% as measured by the S&P 500, U.S. small company stocks up 5.2% as measured by the Russell 2000, and International stocks up 5.78% as measured by the MSCI EAFE. Bonds were off to a slower start, down .78%, as the market reset expectations of the number of interest rate hikes that are likely to occur this year.

As the S&P 500 hits new highs, it is natural that you might be wondering if the market is too expensive. Investing at all-time highs seems like the wrong time to add to your investments. Check out my recent blog for some interesting statistics on forward returns when investing on days the market is making a new high. The moral of the story, though, is that while valuations are expensive, they do NOT necessarily mean the market will crash tomorrow, next quarter, or even next year. Current valuations are usually a poor indicator of how markets will perform in the short run. It is important to set reasonable expectations of future market returns. This is not the same market we have seen over the past couple of years driven by a few concentrated names. Returns have broadened across the benchmark, and political headlines may start to creep into market performance in the short term.

Investing by Political Party: A Long-Term Perspective

What if you ONLY invest in the stock market when your president is in office? Over the past 80 years, the political party-agnostic investor beats the democrat and republican by ~3,000% and ~17,500%!

OK, this may fall under the “lying with statistics” category, but I think it still illustrates two very important points. Stocks don’t grow because of political parties, and time in the market is the single most important factor in growing your investment. 

Let’s consider three hypothetical investment strategies starting with $10,000 in 1945:

1. Republican Only Investor: puts 100% of their money into the S&P 500 when the president is a Republican, otherwise hides their money under their mattress.

2. Democrat Only Investor: puts 100% of their money into the S&P 500 when the president is a Democrat, otherwise hides their money under their mattress. 

3. Agnostic Investor: puts 100% of their money into the S&P 500 the entire time.

The results may shock you. The “Republican Only” investor ends up with ~$309k, the “Democrat Only” investor ends up with ~$1.75M, and the “Party-Agnostic” investor ends up with a whopping ~$54.5M.

Obviously, this hypothetical is a bit outlandish for a few reasons. It has an 80-year time horizon, which is much longer than most people are seriously investing. It is an all-or-nothing strategy that puts all its eggs in one basket or the other. One of those baskets earns 0% (which isn’t realistic if you compare it to money markets or short-term treasuries over time). And lastly, it might lead one to confuse correlation and causation when looking at the Democratic/Republican gap.

It would be easy to point to this as confirmation that the Democratic party is better for stocks, but digging a little deeper makes it less clear. The lead changes throughout history – if we wrote this in the 1990s, someone could point to it as confirmation for the Republican party and stock performance. Aside from that, the gap comes from two very distinct decades: the 2000s that gave investors one of the worst decades of stock returns in history, and the 2010s that gave investors one of the best. Lively debates are still happening today over what caused the Tech Bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, and subsequent recovery – but there were certainly more factors than one. In the long run, stocks grow because earnings grow, and earnings have much more to do with innovation and economic growth than those sitting in the Oval Office.

The second and even more important point is that the best way to partake in those growing stock earnings is, unsurprisingly, to invest in stocks! The chart below uses the same data as the previous chart but only shows the time each investor invested in stocks. Each party held office for almost exactly half of the time, so missing out on the other half was a HUGE detriment to results for both investors.

The Fed, Interest Rates, and Bond Returns

The Fed ended the fastest rate hike cycle in history last summer when they made the final hike to 5.25-5.5%. Since then, the bond market has been trying to pinpoint exactly when the first interest rate CUT would come. March? June? Later? Expectations have been shifting later than initially predicted. You can see that in the rising interest rates the past few months – the 1-year treasury rate was around 4.7% in January but back to 5% by the end of the quarter. What does all this ACTUALLY mean for bond investors, though?

Well, the Fed doesn’t control the entire yield curve – they only have a direct impact on the shortest durations of bonds at the front end of the curve. If you are invested in those short duration bonds, you will probably see the yields fall as the Fed cuts, but the prices of short duration bonds do not move nearly as much as longer duration bonds. Money market funds, for example, have become very popular over the past two years as rates have increased. Roughly speaking, if the Fed cuts rates from 5.5% to 4.5% over the next year, a money market investor would likely see their yield fall a similar 1% but wouldn’t see any price appreciation (they also wouldn’t likely see any price DEPRECIATION if yields were to rise).

Intermediate and long-term bond investors have more factors to consider because those durations are much more volatile and move with longer term economic growth expectations as well as inflation expectations. Just because the Fed cuts rates does not necessarily mean that the 10-year rate would also decrease. BUT if it did, that investor would see significant price appreciation. The flip side to that, as we all saw in 2022, is that those investors saw significant price depreciation as rates rose.

So, What May Be Coming This Quarter?

• Presidential Primary races will continue throughout this quarter, concluding in early June, but with all opponents dropping out of the race, it looks like we will repeat the 2020 election of Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Market driving election headlines are likely to be minimal for now but may start to play into market performance in the short term. Holding the cash you may need in the next year, lengthening the duration of our bonds – to potentially offset equity market volatility, and rebalancing are all tools we are deploying to take advantage of or insulate against short-term market volatility.

• Next month, the SEC will shorten the standard trade settlement cycle from two business days to one business day after the trade date. This reduces the time between when a sale of a security occurs and when the proceeds are cleared for withdrawal.  

• Portfolio spring cleaning? Much like moving through the rooms in your house with a critical eye, the investment committee is focused on reviewing asset classes within the portfolio. We are focused on extending the duration of our bond portfolio with a partial change having already occurred. We will also be doing a deep dive into our international investments. 

We are grateful for the opportunity to guide you throughout your investment journey. If you ever have any questions, don’t hesitate to contact us!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP® is a Senior Portfolio Manager and Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

The Composite Index of Leading Indicators, otherwise known as the Leading Economic Index (LEI), is an index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is used to predict the direction of global economic movements in future months. The index is composed of 10 economic components whose changes tend to precede changes in the overall economy.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Q4 2023 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth, CFA®, CFP®

There were many reasons the fourth quarter of 2023 could have been weak. After two years of revenge spending of pent-up household COVID savings, the consumer seemed like they could have run out of steam, but the Christmas spending season was strong, and consumer confidence grew. The strength in the labor market has slowed down, and jobs are being added at a slower pace, but unemployment is creeping down and not up. While much of the population is still enjoying their low mortgage or auto loan rates that have been locked in, those forced to move into a new home or buy new automobiles are feeling the crunch of higher interest rates. Student loan debt became payable again just ahead of the holiday season while all insurance premiums are on the rise.

Despite all these reasons, we saw one of the strongest fourth quarters on record regarding returns. While returns were narrow early in the year, driven by AI-related hype, the second half of the year has been about inflation coming under control and, thus, a halt in interest rate increases for the last quarter. A typical 60% Stock/40% Bond diversified portfolio ended the year up around 15%, led by the strong growth of U.S. large stocks with some of the best returns of any major asset class at +26% for the year (Example 60/40 portfolio represented by 40% Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR, 30% S&P 500 TR, 15% MSCI EAFE NR, 10% Russell 2000 TR, and 5% MSCI EM NR). International stocks underperformed the U.S. but also had a strong year, up around 18%, and U.S. aggregate bonds finished the year positively at 5.5%, thanks to falling yields and tighter spreads.

Recession?

A year ago, the media was full of recession buzz. The S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough drawdown during 2022 of 24%, which usually signals a mild recession (stock market reaction usually happens ahead of an economic recession). But just because we didn’t experience a traditional recession, defined as two-quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product Growth in a row, doesn’t mean various sectors didn’t have periods of contraction. Capital Group shared an interesting perspective recently that the economy experienced recessions within multiple industries; they just didn’t align simultaneously. No doubt another hangover anomaly from the COVID shutdown and subsequent highs from the government infusion of cash. The common thread over the past couple of years was the resiliency of the jobs market. As long as people are as employed as they want, money continues to flow into their pockets for spending. Consumer spending is the largest component of our economy, and a strong job market means the economy should continue to grow and avoid recession.

U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar weakened somewhat versus a basket of other currencies from the beginning of the year. This has served as a tailwind for international investing. Some of the weakening came late in the fourth quarter after the Federal Reserve indicated their desire to start cutting rates in the U.S. before other developed market economies would start. The differential between interest rates in the U.S. versus other economies worldwide is a driver of the strength or weakness of the dollar. If the rate differential narrows, meaning rates in the U.S. start to come down while rates stay higher in other areas of the world, making the yields similar, whether here or abroad, would weaken the U.S. dollar. This coupled with slowing inflation will likely continue to impact the dollar strength.

Source: JP Morgan Guide to the markets 11/30/23

Inflation and Interest Rates

Speaking of inflation…It appears that inflation is back down to long-term averages and continuing to drift downward. The chart below shows headline inflation (blue) and core CPI, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, as it strips out volatile items like food and energy in the short term. Shelter and services are the two areas of the economy that are still driving inflation. If inflation remains under control, this gives the Federal Reserve more leeway in cutting interest rates next year. 

Government Fiscal Situation

While we, as consumers, have applauded higher yields for over a year, interest outlay on the national debt is rising. Doubling from just a few years ago, interest payments now total approximately 14-15% of tax revenues. The 1990s is the last time we saw levels like this. Likely, this has yet to peak as debt continues to mature and be re-issued at higher interest rates. The level of debt continues to increase at what seems to be an unsustainable pace, too. The amount of debt per capita is nearly $100,000 for the first time. That means the government is $100,000 in debt per person in the United States. There are several ways to reduce or slow the growth: strong GDP growth, increasing immigration, spending cuts, and increased taxes (fiscal policy).

At the December Federal Reserve meeting, the FED confirmed that they are intending on rate cuts in 2024 rather than any more rate increases. The data is supporting this move. Rate reductions should help to slow the stress on interest payments for the government. This has certainly impacted consumer mortgage rates as they are falling from their peak.

You might have heard that there is an election in 2024. Some major topics of debate will make headlines in the coming months, including international policy, the impact of inflation, the growing national debt, and many key social issues.  

While it is nearly a year away, you may be anxious about how it will impact investments. A volatile campaign season and close vote can create uncertainty for markets. But, historically, election years have favored patient investors even though they may be volatile. For long-term investors, the political party holding the White House has had little impact on returns. Check out the chart below. You can see that returns for the S&P 500 have, on average, been similar regardless of who holds this office.

No doubt 2024 will be interesting. Not only are we facing a major election, but 40 national elections are happening worldwide (Russia, India, the U.K., South Africa, and Taiwan, to name a few)! That is more than 40% of the world’s population. Since a year can be a lifetime in politics, in addition to our February investment update, we will be doing a special election update in the fall to shed light on the progression of this process and how it may be impacting investments in the short run.

Portfolio Construction: Thinking Differently for the Coming Year

We are coming off two years that were full of surprises. Nobody saw the fastest rate hike cycle in history coming in 2022, leading to one of the worst stock and bond years. To follow that up, nobody predicted that the U.S. stock market would be positive over 25% in 2023. While your core investment philosophy should not change from year to year, the market is constantly changing and may provide short-term opportunities to keep on your radar. Lately, it feels as though those market changes are happening faster than ever. A few things that we are keeping on our radar that might drive opportunities for tweaks in portfolios are:

Inflation: Is high inflation behind us? How will the Fed react?

• Think about shifting in or out of real assets, commodities, and TIPS.

Interest Rates: Are we leaving a rising rate environment and entering a falling rate environment?

• Think about targeting certain maturities in bond portfolios.

Elections: Are there key policy shifts that may drive market trends for years? 

• Think about an overweight or underweight to certain sectors in both stocks and bonds and use election volatility as a rebalancing opportunity throughout the year.

Valuations: Have international, small-cap stocks, or the value style become cheap enough to expect outperformance?

• Think about shifting from the more expensive asset class to the discounted one. 

Dollar Strength: The dollar was in a bull market for almost 15 years, but are we in the early innings of a turnaround?

• Don’t give up on international investing. Think about underweighting U.S. dollar assets and adding to international.  

While these themes, and surely many others, will play out through the next year and potentially provide opportunities to take advantage of – our underlying philosophy will not change. We will focus on fundamentals and stick to our process. Headlines might cause investors to overreact one way or the other, but rather than get swept up in the news cycles, we will use those opportunities to rebalance and stick to our long-term investment goals.

Lastly, there is one additional change coming in May of 2024. The SEC is shortening the standard trade settlement cycle from two business days after the trade date to one business day after the trade date. This reduces the time between when a sale of a security occurs and when the proceeds are cleared for withdrawal. Remember years ago when settlement took three days? Will there ever be a zero-day settlement? Only time will tell. As technology improves and processes can be completed more efficiently, we see benefits like this!

Stay tuned for the invitation to our annual economic and investment update coming soon! There will be both an in-person event and a webinar!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Example 60/40 portfolio represented by 40% Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond TR, 30% S&P 500 TR, 15% MSCI EAFE NR, 10% Russell 2000 TR, and 5% MSCI EM NR.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Q3 2023 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

The third quarter of the year has brought some downside volatility with it. While it can be concerning when opening your statement, it is important to remember that minor pullbacks are very normal throughout the year. August and September are, historically, the toughest months on average for markets, as shown by the chart below. The good news is that the last quarter of the year tends to be one of the strongest on average.

Over the past quarter, investor mood has shifted. The S&P 500 ended the quarter down 2.08%. A diversified portfolio ended the quarter down 2.63% if using a simple blended benchmark of (40% Barcap Aggregate Bond index, 40% S&P 500, and 20% MSCI EAFE International index). Quarters like this make it challenging to remember why you want to continue holding a diversified portfolio. Periods like that of 2000-2008 are a distant memory for most investors (and many have never experienced investing when U.S. markets and technology companies have struggled). If you dissect the returns of the S&P 500 year to date, you can see that most of the returns have come from the media dubbed “Magnificent Seven.” In reality, the remaining 493 companies in the S&P have contributed only about 2% of the positive 13% in year-to-date returns. The chart below shows how just these seven companies are responsible for most of the returns.

Source: Morningstar Direct

Maintaining a balanced approach to investing is important, as most of us are investing over a lifetime. While diversification may not always work over short periods of time, studies show it to be a successful strategy over the long term.

What contributed to volatility this quarter?

Higher intermediate and long-term interest rates have spelled trouble for equity valuations recently. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) did not raise rates in September but signaled that they are likely to raise one more time this year and are unlikely to cut rates in early 2024. This has caused longer-term bond rates to increase drastically over the summer (about 1%). We have continued to maintain our allocation to short-duration bonds, which has helped over that time period.

Higher interest rates contribute to equity volatility because investors view all asset classes through a risk/reward lens when determining where best to deploy money. When interest rates are low, investors are incentivized to reach for yield in equities as they pay an attractive dividend (more than treasury bonds were paying for a long time!). You also have the added upside potential of capital appreciation. When you can get interest above 5% in a money market or CD with extremely low risk, investors are less incentivized to invest money into equities, as most of the return needed to achieve long-term goals can be earned with little to no risk! Rates usually don’t stay elevated like this for very long. On average, the period between the last interest rate increase by the Fed and the first interest rate cut is nine months in historically similar periods. So don’t expect these high rates with no risk to stay around long.

Political brinksmanship is yet again holding the economy hostage to further both sides’ political agendas. The government averted a shutdown with only hours left but kicked the can down the road, so we may hear about this again in November. Like with the debt ceiling, we have been here before. The good news is, generally, shutdowns don’t coincide with recessions. There is a lot of noise and, usually, short-term volatility but not a longer-term impact on markets or the economy. The longest shutdown was 35 days at the end of 2018. While it created some temporary market fluctuation, it did not cause a larger economic issue. At that time, the economy contracted about .2% that quarter but got that back the following quarter because government employees get back pay once things open back up. Moody’s, the final of the big three debt ratings agencies to have the U.S. rated AAA, is questioning their AAA rating on U.S. government debt because of the behavior of the politicians. 

Economic Growth is slowing

While Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour is coming to a close and noticeably adding to the local GDP of the cities she performs in, the rest of the economy might be better described by her song “Death By A Thousand Cuts.”

The consumer is out of extra money (one can only buy so many $90 concert t-shirts). The chart below shows how families had stockpiled excess earnings and government transfer payments from the COVID shutdown but have spent this excess savings over the past two years.

The UAW strike will continue to impact numbers like the above chart. As the strike expands, so does the risk of increased shutdowns and layoffs spread throughout the economy. It remains to be seen how long the strike will continue and, thus, how much of a negative impact on GDP it will have. While this strike will have economic consequences, it is only one industry. While there could be spillover if it goes on long enough (for example, people may go out to eat less if they are on strike and not earning their full wages), the UAW strike shouldn’t single-handedly be the cause of a recession.

Home affordability will continue to be hurt by high-interest rates.

Student loan payments restart in October, pulling more money out of the consumer’s pocket.   

Jobs are strong, but job openings are pulling back.

These items, or something yet unknown, could be the tipping point for the economy to turn over into recession in early 2024. Most don’t realize we have already been in an earnings recession this year. This is classified as two or more quarters of contraction in earnings from the prior year. S&P 500 companies have experienced this as a whole this year. Equity markets are certainly spooked about this and are reacting accordingly now, even as the Fed tries to engineer a “soft landing.”

What is a soft landing?

In short, very rare. Ideally, the Fed will stifle GDP growth enough with higher rates to bring down inflation but not stifle so much that growth turns negative. Rather, it just slows down, avoiding a recession. They are counting on the strength of the labor market to remain, keeping the economy out of recession. Only time will tell if the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. They have come a long way in fighting inflation, as it was just a year ago that we were talking about 9% inflation, and now we are below 4%. The easy sources of inflation have been targeted and curbed (think supply chain shortages), so now it is time to let high interest rates work their magic throughout the economy.

Politics

The Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, was ousted in a 216-210 vote, with 8 Republicans joining the unified Democratic vote. Patrick McHenry is serving as the temporary speaker, who is well respected in the house and should provide good leadership for now. Since we are well into the congressional term, proceeding without a formal leader shouldn’t be too disruptive to normal functioning as committees have already been formed and a rules process adopted. Electing a new speaker will, however, take valuable time away from working on funding the government past the November 17th deadline.

The media coverage is starting to pick up for the election in 2024. Undoubtedly, headlines will only pick up later this year and throughout next year. While there is no shortage of negative headlines during an election year, they tend to be positive for markets. Markets don’t care which party controls the white house. I think many view Republicans as being more pro-business and assume that returns will be far better than when a Democrat holds the office, but that isn’t true. The S&P 500 has gone up regardless of who holds the office most of the time. This is because markets focus far more on what is going on with the economy than on politics. American companies find ways to be innovative and successful regardless of who is leading the country.    

While all of this noise can create market volatility, keeping your long-term goals in mind is more important than ever. We do not generate future forecasts; rather, we trust in the journey of financial planning and a disciplined investment strategy to get us through the more challenging times and stay the course. We appreciate the continued trust you place in us and look forward to serving your needs in the future.

Please don’t hesitate to contact us for any questions or conversations!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Q2 2023 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

While Federal Reserve (the Fed) policy, macroeconomic headlines such as inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty are themes investors continue to hear about, U.S. large cap stocks finished the first half of 2023 up 15.5%. It is important to look under the hood of these returns as they have been entirely driven by the market's largest stocks, with the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 accounting for over 95% of gains. Beyond the largest companies, performance fell off quickly. Developed markets equity (International) has had notable returns year to date ending over 11% in positive territory for the year so far. While their returns struggled to eclipse the top 10 companies in the S&P 500, international investments handily outpaced the balance of the companies in the S&P 500. Commodities struggled the most as economies and production started to slow, and inflation is coming down (even though it is still elevated higher than we would like to see).

Much of the quarter was dominated by the banking sector headlines that cropped up at the end of the first quarter and debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. Two larger regional bank failures put the markets on edge, waiting for contagion to kick off this quarter. However, the backstop provided by the government and FDIC quickly seemed to curb potential contagion. Then all attention turned toward Washington dragging its feet over raising the debt ceiling, which led to intra-quarter volatility. As the U.S. government approached the date it was expected to run out of money to pay its bills, a deal was reached on June 1st to suspend the debt ceiling through January 2025 while cutting federal spending. As we mentioned in our previous commentary, this is the outcome that would likely occur as history has served as a guide for this. This agreement averted a U.S. government default ahead of the deadline.

The strong equity returns in the year's first half may have taken many by surprise. The question is, where do we go from here? Summer tends to be a time of weakness for markets, and a strong first half of the year could cause buyers to pause. It's not uncommon to see the market stop and gather itself and digest strong gains after they occur.

Higher interest rates

We have witnessed a large amount of excitement surrounding higher interest rates in CDs, money markets, and short-term treasuries. While this is great for money, we need to keep liquid for a shorter-term need or a place to park cash while implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy; it is important to not give up on investing in a diversified portfolio. When rates were attractive in the early 2000s, it may have been tempting to divert some of your equity investments into cash equivalents rather than invest in the S&P 500 during a recession and continue with this throughout the years. But the opportunity cost is high. The chart below shows how investing $12,000 per year into equities, whether perfectly timed or the most poorly timed, outweighs diverting excess additions beyond need into cash equivalents. Even the worst timing over the years ended up well ahead of cash equivalents.

So, what has happened in the shorter term after times when CD rates peaked and seemed their most attractive? The chart below shows 12-month forward returns for different asset classes after rates peaked. While they may offer the added protection of FDIC insurance, notice that the 6-month CDs never returned more than the peak rate. This makes sense, as you are locking in a rate. The dark blue is the U.S. bond index, the light blue is high-yield bonds, and the green is the S&P 500. As you can see, the other asset classes returned far more than the CD rates 12 months after rates peaked in most of the periods shown below.

Again this reiterates the point not to allocate more than is appropriate for you into short-term fixed strategies.

Check out the video for an economic update!

This summer, all eyes will be on the next Fed decision when the FOMC meets at the end of July. In June, the Fed decided to pause and let the economy digest the drastic rate increases of 2022 and earlier this year. They did signal that we could likely see up to two more rate hikes this summer/fall. The U.S. economy still looks strong, so the FED feels they have room to continue to increase interest rates, even though at a much slower pace to get inflation under control. GDP growth worldwide continues to hold up, signaling we aren't in a recession yet (see the chart below). The Fed will continue to remain very data-dependent when determining their next steps, but the risk is rising that they will overtighten and push the economy into recession.

While the taxable bond yield curve remains strongly inverted, the Municipal bond yield curve is less inverted. This means that investors are better compensated for moving out longer in duration. For those in a higher tax bracket, municipal bonds can provide attractive taxable equivalent yields.

Continue to expect some volatility through the summer as markets digest hefty first-half returns, and we learn more regarding future interest rate action. A sound financial plan and regular rebalancing, when needed, help bring a portfolio through uncertain times. We are here to answer any questions you might have! Do not hesitate to reach out! Thank you for the trust you place in us each and every day!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Q1 2023 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

The year has started much stronger than it may have felt so far. Growth-style investments trounced value-style investments as tech names came back into favor. International development beat U.S. while EM equity lagged, which was contributed by a weaker U.S. dollar. Small company stocks lagged large company stocks mainly due to a heavier technology exposure for large company indexes like the S&P 500. In contrast, the smaller company indexes had a heavier weighting in financials. The Morningstar asset allocation category of funds had 50-70% stock and 30-50% bonds, so on average, a 60% stock/40% bond allocation was up about 3.9% in the first quarter of the year.

Speaking of financials, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a lender to some technology companies and startups, became the largest bank to fail since 2008. Signature Bank became the 3rd largest bank to fail within hours of the SVB failure.  

How did they get to the point of failure? SVB was a commercial bank that specialized in servicing the venture capital community. Over the last few years, there has been much activity in venture capital fundraising, and many deposits flowed into the bank in late 2020 and 2021. SVB's balance sheet at this time went from $70 Billion to $200 Billion, while lending was only a fraction of what they did. So they had excess levels of liquidity and took most of that money to purchase treasuries. Their intention was to hold to maturity, so while they didn't have credit risk exposure, they had a lot of interest rate risk. During 2022 they experienced deposit outflows as venture capital companies were experiencing a lot of spending outflows and not as many inflows. At the same time, interest rates increased, causing unrealized losses in these bonds. As money continued to flow out of the bank, this caused a liquidity issue which forced the bank to sell treasuries at a loss to meet withdrawal demands. So ultimately, high amounts of interest rate risk and sector concentration were the main reasons for failure.

What about contagion? It's important to remember that banks do fail almost every year. Usually, they are caused by Fraud or mismanagement. But there are times when something bigger is going on that can cause multiple banks to fail. In the chart below you can see the largest amount of failures happened in the 1980s due to the farm crisis, oil prices, and the S&L crisis. The great recession was another big wave of bank failures.

Source: https://www.bankingstrategist.com/history-of-us-bank-failures

In the case of the most recent failures, the government acted quickly over the weekend to create policies to back-stop banks that may need to sell treasuries to meet customer withdrawals. These policies allow banks to take cheap loans backed by those treasuries for a short term to meet depositor withdrawal demand if needed without booking losses.

Are my deposits with you covered by FDIC? We diligently review FDIC coverages for our clients. If you're unfamiliar with the Raymond James Bank Deposit program, here is a primer. One account at Raymond James through the Raymond James Bank Deposit Program (RJBDP) can provide up to $3,000,000 ($6,000,000 for joint accounts) of total FDIC coverage. Raymond James does the work behind the scenes as available cash is deposited into interest-bearing deposit accounts. RJ uses a waterfall process to ensure higher cash levels for clients than the traditional limits. With the Raymond James Bank Deposit Program, uninvested cash is deposited into interest-bearing deposit accounts at up to 20 banks, providing this increased FDIC eligibility.

Raymond James will deposit up to $245,000 ($490,000 for joint accounts of two or more) in each bank on a predetermined list. Another way to qualify for more coverage is by holding deposits in different ownership categories (account types such as an individual account, a trust account, and an IRA all qualify for their own FDIC coverage).

Is my money safe in Raymond James Bank? Questions about how Raymond James is positioned in this stressed environment? Watch this video.

Cash management is a much more active process than in the past. Short-term treasuries, Certificate of Deposits, and money market mutual funds offer attractive rates for the right investor. While these options don't carry FDIC coverage, they shouldn't be ignored. Talk to your advisor to explore what might be right for you if you're carrying large cash balances at your bank with no immediate need of utilizing the cash.

The U.S. government is close to its limit (Debt ceiling), where it can no longer borrow additional funds. Several months ago, Congress had to begin using "extraordinary measures" to fulfill some obligations, and the clock is ticking for them to be able to come to an agreement and raise the debt ceiling so that spending can continue without pause. Estimates show these measures run out as early as June. The issue is typical (see other times when the debt limit was raised in the graphic below), but a divided Congress can make the issue more contentious. The main holdup is that Republican opponents want to see spending cuts before the ceiling is raised, and spending cuts are not easy for anyone to agree upon. 

https://www.pgpf.org/analysis/2023/01/debt-ceiling-update-whats-at-stake

Expect volatility as deadlines to meet obligations approach and the market's price is in more uncertainty. The direct impact and potentially biggest worry for investors is the risk of the U.S. government defaulting on its Treasury debt. Additional pain in the form of spending cuts would have a direct economic impact, with uncertain outcomes and hard decisions being made on where to cut the spending. There is no way to predict the future, but history as a guide would suggest a deal is reached and the ceiling is once again raised as it has been every other time the issue has come up in our lifetimes. We lean on diversification, conservative portfolio positioning, and a sound financial plan during times of uncertainty, and we're always here to answer any questions you might have on the topic.

Is ESG Investing Political? Check out our upcoming webinar on April 19th!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results.

10 Investment Themes for Mid-Year 2022

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Along with this investment commentary, we'll be answering your most commonly asked questions during market volatility, recession, and inflation in our BONUS on-demand webinar.

The first half of 2022 has seen a surge in interest rates, volatile equity and bond markets, and geopolitical conflict. All while investors have been recalibrating their expectations on the Fed’s timeline for interest rate increases. Economic data shows soaring prices and a very tight labor market, strengthening the case for the Fed to take aggressive action to tame inflation. Complicating matters for the global economy, China’s Covid-related shutdowns have exacerbated supply chain disruptions.

During these uncertain times, we want to highlight ten different themes we are thinking about right now and how they may impact your investments. However, despite these themes, it is important to remember that your financial plan is the most important theme to us through all market conditions. The financial plans we design are built to withstand markets like we are experiencing today and even worse. Everyone uses a different map to chart their destination. Some destinations are a week away, and some destinations are years away. Rest assured, your plan is designed with your final destination in mind, and this type of volatility is expected along the way!

Theme 1: Rising Risk of Recession

While no one has officially declared that the U.S. is in a recession yet, it is looking more likely that we could enter one. Two-quarters of negative GDP (one of which has already happened in the first quarter) is the traditional definition of a recession. Politics and mid-term elections will impact whether we hear recession rhetoric out of Washington, but the definition is pretty clear. The National Bureau of Economic research weighs jobs, manufacturing, and real incomes when assessing whether or not we are in a recession and not just real GDP, so this is important information to watch.  

Theme 2: Inflation

Inflation has been more persistent than many anticipated this year (including the Fed). Government stimulus money is still in bank accounts, driving our desire to purchase, which hasn’t fully been spent. This past quarter is the first time in a long time that we have finally seen this number start to level off and come down. This is likely due to higher prices. Supply chain disruptions are still present, but we are feeling some relief. Remember the chart earlier in the year that we referenced showing over 100 container ships waiting outside Los Angeles and Long Beach, California (one of the biggest ports in the country)? That number is down to 34 as of May. Chip shortages continue to persist with no end in sight, forcing companies to innovate as much as possible to manufacture items like cars with fewer chips.

Theme 3: Interest Rates

In June, the Fed responded to the higher-than-expected inflation number with a .75% rate increase, bringing the Fed funds target rate to 1.75% after .25% and .5% rate increases earlier in the year. The Fed has shown that it is ready to fight inflation and update its plan accordingly as new information becomes available. The bond market is also expecting a .5%-.75% rate increase in July. The U.S. is not alone, as 45 central banks in other nations have also increased interest rates. If inflation starts to quiet and recession data starts to accelerate, the Fed could begin to pull back on its rate-hiking plans. Quantitative tightening (Q.T.) has also begun.

The chart below shows the rate of Q.T. for the $1 trillion run rate that is anticipated. In most months this year, the Fed will let the maturities happen and not replace those bonds. Most months show more maturities than is needed, so the Fed will still be buying bonds in these months. There are only two months this year where the Fed will need to actively trim some bonds from their balance sheet (the blue bar each month shows the amount of bonds maturing on their own, and the orange bar is the amount that the Fed would need to reduce by)

Theme 4: Geopolitical Conflicts

Sadly, the Russia/Ukraine conflict continues with no resolution in sight. While these headlines are not directly impacting day-to-day market moves anymore, their repercussions from sanctions on Russia continue to affect other macro-economic factors such as rising energy prices, which directly impact inflation.

Theme 5: Mid-Term Elections

As we look at the mid-term elections this November, it does look like the Blue Wave of Democratic control is on thin ice. The three things that are against the Democrats are:

History: History suggests that the incumbent party loses around 25- 30 seats during the mid-term elections.

President’s Approval Rating: The lower the President’s approval rating, the more significant the losses. With President Biden’s approval rating around 42%, that would suggest losses closer to the 30-seat level as it is lower than usual. But the question is - will his approval rating continue to languish in the low 40s?  

Retirement: This is also a headwind from Democrats’ bid to maintain the House, as 25 sitting Democrats are retiring. This is the largest number of Democrat retirements with a Democrat in office since 1996. 

Theme 6: Cryptocurrency Volatility

Cryptocurrencies continue to make headlines. This time, however, the headlines are related to the meltdown experienced. Last year, many people touted Cryptocurrencies as the only true inflation hedge…until they were not. In the past quarter, most Cryptocurrencies have dropped more than 50%. Coinmarketcap.com shows the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies reaching a high point of $2.9 trillion last November. As of the end of the quarter, that number fell to $850 billion – a 70% crash. Additionally, some individual cryptocurrencies have fallen over 90% just this year! Speculation and volatility are and will continue to be a hallmark of this asset. Proceed with caution if you do so on your own, as this is not an asset we recommend holding as part of your long-term asset allocation!

Theme 7: Do Something or Do Nothing?

Please continue reading to see what we are doing in portfolios right now. Investors often feel the need to do something when markets are volatile, as the fight or flight instinct has been ingrained into our being for hundreds of years. If you are doing something, ensure it is driven by the right reasons, as doing the wrong things can be very costly to your long-term financial success. The graph below shows that investors, as a whole, get the timing wrong by selling low and buying high. Following the herd can result in achieving almost 50% less return (orange bar below - 5.5%) than a buy and hold investor (yellow bar below - 10.7%). Let us worry about when it is time to do something as it is often best to buy and hold.

Theme 8: Elevated Oil Prices

Energy has by far been the best performing sector in the market, but this does not mean it will be the best performing sector in the future. Usually, by the time something is making headlines, the returns have already been booked. However, looking ahead, this bought of high gas prices will do more to spur our country toward utilizing renewable resources than any lobbying group or politician could hope to accomplish on their own. As fossil fuel prices continue to rise, alternative fuels are more cost-effective and can accelerate

Theme 9: Diversification

U.S. Large Cap stocks have been the darling asset class of the past decade, which has tempted many investors to ditch other asset classes in favor of more U.S. stocks. But as 2022 has shown, there is a considerable risk in concentrating your investments into one asset class if that asset class ends up being one of the worst performers of the year. We consider it especially risky to load up on a single asset class AFTER we have already seen a vast period of outperformance like in the U.S. stock market over the past ten years. 

Global valuations are much cheaper than they are here in the U.S. Studies have shown that lower valuations tend to suggest higher returns, which is another major reason to hold your international investments. 

Grandeur Peak, one of our international investment managers, referenced this quote in their quarterly letter that we believe applies to the question of U.S. vs. international investments today: 

“The mood swings of the securities markets resemble the movement of a pendulum. Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum ‘on average,’ it actually spends very little of its time there. Instead, it is almost always swinging toward or away from the extremes of its arc. But whenever the pendulum is near either extreme, it is inevitable that it will move back toward the midpoint sooner or later. In fact, it is the movement toward an extreme itself that supplies the energy for the swing back.” (Howard Marks, Memo to Clients, 4/11/1991)

2022 has been painful for investment performance across almost every asset class. The silver lining, in our opinion, is that diversification is still a success story. A diversified set of asset classes has dampened the drawdown so far this year, making the hard investment times a little less painful. 

Diversification is a core principle of the Center’s investment process, making international stocks, bonds, and other alternative asset classes key components of our portfolios going forward. 

Theme 10: Portfolio Management During Market Drawdowns

We have been busy behind the scenes tax-loss harvesting, thinking about timely Roth conversions, if that is a strategy you are employing, rebalancing, and ensuring cash needs are met. We are also monitoring factors that may tell us when to lighten up on or add to equities. While these factors are meant to trigger rarely, as there is a shift in incoming information from our broad set of barometers, there may be changes in our outlook and strategy.

We encourage you to watch our on-demand webinar if you are interested in hearing more. To access the webinar, enter your email address and the webinar will be accessible immediately after!

As always, feel free to reach out if you have additional questions. We are happy to help! Until next time, enjoy your summer.

Any opinions are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. member FINRA/SIPC. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Q1 2022 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Spring of 2022 feels as though it is bringing in a new wave of hope. There appears to be at least a reprieve (maybe nearing an end?) to the pandemic here in the U.S, and economic re-openings seem only to be limited by the number of staff members businesses can hire. However, the first quarter also brought many other headlines, including a severe escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, increased oil prices and inflation, and higher interest rates.

It has been a rocky start to the year with a diversified portfolio ending -5.34% (40% Bloomberg US Agg Bond TR (Bonds), 40% S&P 500 TR (US Large company stocks), and 20% MSCI EAFE NR (Developed International)). There seemed to be nowhere to hide this quarter as volatility was present worldwide in equities and the fixed income markets.

Source: Morningstar Direct

Is This Market Decline Normal?

This chart shows intra-year stock market declines (red dot and number) and the market’s return for the full year (gray bar). A couple of takeaways from the below chart are important:

• The market is capable of recovering from intra-year drops and finishing the year in positive territory.

• This year’s correction thus far does not stick out as anything other than normally experienced corrections, even though the reasons for it may not feel normal.

Source: FactSet, Standard & Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Returns based on price index only and do not include dividends.  Intra-year drops refer to the largesrtmarket drops from peak to trough during the year)

Yield Curve Inversion

You may have read that the yield curve briefly inverted toward the end of the quarter after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in this newest interest rate cycle. If not, check out our blog.

Historically, an inverted yield curve has been a signal for a coming recession. Imperfect of a signal as it is, we do take notice. This is one of several parameters we utilize at The Center for making portfolio decisions. The good news is, there is usually time before a recession hits if it does. Now that this signal has been triggered, we have a series of other signals we watch for before determining any appropriate action. Next, we seek to follow through on the economy and technical analysis because, as the chart below shows, the S&P 500 can continue to deliver positive returns (over 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) after the yield curve inverts but before recession strikes.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

While we may not be able to control if a recession occurs or not, we certainly can help you prepare. Here is a checklist of potential action items to consider when they happen. Many of which we take care of for you already. Any questions? Don’t hesitate to reach out!

Is Inflation Sticky?

The answer is…it depends. It depends on which contributors to inflation you are looking at. Energy is a good example. The price of a barrel of oil had a large spike (up 30%) and pullback (down 25%) all during the month of March caused by the Russia/Ukraine conflict and sanctions put in place against Russia who is a large exporter of oil (especially to Europe). Before the Russia/Ukraine conflict, energy prices rose steadily with the economic re-opening and supply limitations put in place by OPEC. This volatile component can become a large detractor just as quickly as it became a large contributor. This is why the Federal Reserve prefers to filter this noise out for its decision-making purpose and focus more on Core CPI numbers instead that eliminate food and energy due to their volatile nature. As the year continues, we may see inflation coming from the green, red, and purple areas below start to abate, leaving us with roughly 4-5% inflation (still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%).

Source: BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Russia/Ukraine Conflict

We will speak for everyone in saying that we are saddened by the tragic events taking place overseas in Ukraine. We continue to hope for a quick, peaceful resolution.

Markets have been increasingly volatile as the conflict unfolds, but the U.S. stock market has been shockingly positive since Russia invaded Ukraine. The one-month period from February 24th to March 24th showed the S&P 500 up ~5%. Or maybe that is not shocking when you look at how markets typically react to global conflicts. If you attended our investment event in February, you would have already seen this data. Still, the average time it has taken the market to recover from geopolitical conflict-induced drawdowns is only 47 days.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is shaking up stock markets, commodity markets, and providing even more uncertainty to domestic inflation and monetary/fiscal policy. During these times, it is important to remember that financial plans are built to withstand uncertainties. Diversification is more important now than ever. We will continue to monitor these events and keep you informed as we make decisions that may or may not affect investment allocations.

Key Takeaways

To summarize, here is what happened in the first quarter:

• Stocks and bonds struggled because of inflationary pressures.

• Commodity-linked sectors and countries benefitted, but on the other hand, growth assets and commodity importers struggled.

• Lastly, stating the obvious, the war in Ukraine has had a negative impact on Europe.

Now that we understand what happened, we are sure you want to know how we are responding.

1. We are monitoring our parameters to identify (if or) when it is necessary to adjust your bond to equity ratio and add duration back into the portfolio. Speaking of which, our parameters are telling us short bonds are still appropriate for investors. Remember, the higher the duration, the more a bond’s value will fall as interest rates rise. Consequently, we are maintaining a sleeve of your bond position in short-duration investments.

2. We are taking advantage of market volatility by tax-loss harvesting. Tax-loss harvesting helps minimize what you pay in capital gains taxes by offsetting your income.

3. Finally, we routinely review portfolios and rebalance them to capture cheap buying opportunities.

If you would like to gather more insight, we will include links to our most recent investment event and blogs. As always, we are here for you. Don’t hesitate to give us a call!

Explore More…

March FOMC Meeting: Rate Liftoff

Economic and Investment Outlook Webinar 2022

How Do I Prepare my Portfolio for Inflation?

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

2021 Fourth Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

As we close the books on 2021 and move into 2022, we took a few minutes to re-read our thoughts as we started the year. There was a sense of hope that the recovery would continue, jobs would recover, and the world would start to normalize. There was also worry over finalizing the election and concerns of tax rate increases. While it has been a bumpy road, the year has ended better than where we began in some very important aspects like job recovery and dodging the bullet of widely higher taxes. We do have a fresh batch of worries but also optimism looking ahead to 2022.

A diversified benchmark portfolio consisting of 60% stocks (split 40/20 between U.S.-S&P 500 and International-MSCI EAFE) and 40% bonds (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) is up just over 12.5% for 2021, with the S&P 500 again leading the way at +28.71%, international stocks (MSCI EAFE) at +11.78%, and U.S. Aggregate Bonds at -1.54%. Please keep in mind indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns.

The good news is, for yet another year, the above hypothetical diversified portfolio would be up well over any targets we may have designed with you toward meeting financial planning goals; which should be an investor’s ultimate long term target.

Should we continue to diversify your portfolio?

Investors everywhere have been left wondering, “Why don’t I just own more U.S. stocks if they are producing such stellar returns this year while everything else (bonds or emerging) has produced very ho hum to negative results?” During these times, it is important to open our history books and remember the “lost decade.” 

We are referring to the 10 year time period throughout the 2000’s when the S&P 500 produced a negative total return. This was a very difficult time period starting with the burst of the dot-com bubble and ending with the financial crisis of 2008. Many felt like there was nowhere to hide during this time period. In reality however, those with a widely diversified portfolio had quite the opposite results. Sure a portion of their portfolio was flat to down but many of the other areas of their portfolio performed quite well over this decade, boosting their overall portfolio returns. The chart below illustrates average annual returns from some of the major Morningstar categories from 2000-2009.  The lost decade only applied to one type of investment one could own.

Chart and data courtesy John Hancock® Investments

The Center has a long history, being founded in 1985, so we have the benefit of guiding clients through many types of return environments. Coming into this lost decade, investors were asking us the very same questions we are hearing now, and the chart above shows us how that ended. While we don’t believe we are on the doorstep of another lost decade, we do feel it is not the time to abandon diversification. So, when you open your statements this year, you may see other well-known strategies that are roughly 60% Stock/40% bond up even less at just below 10% for the year. So, be careful before making any drastic changes to your portfolio. Talk to your financial planner first to determine how this might impact your long term goals!

What about Inflation?

People are saving less and spending more. Prior to the pandemic the savings rate, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, was roughly 7.5%, spiked up to almost 34% at the start of the pandemic in April 2020, and is now back down to 7.5%. With that large savings round trip, however, cash in bank accounts is still very high. Roughly $3.3 trillion of extra cash has accumulated in bank accounts by Americans (source: Longview Economics). All of this extra cash has served as fuel for inflation. As of the end of November, inflation readings hit a 40 year high of 6.8%. Food and energy were the main drivers of these readings. As stimulus slows, we should see spending (demand) in both of these areas level off and even decline a bit.

The Federal Reserve is now taking active measures to try to combat inflation. If you look at the history of interest rates, we have been very low for a long time. The Federal Reserve under chairs, Yellen and Powell, started to creep them back upwards as we emerged from the financial crisis. Then the pandemic struck and The Fed took them right back down near zero. Now the forecast is to start increasing rates again.

The last time we saw inflation at the levels we are at now was back in the early 1980’s. At that time, interest rates were quite high to try to bring inflation down. Sometimes we get the question of why increasing interest rates help to combat inflation. We love this question because it brings us back to the basics of economics!

Inflation is a result of too much money chasing too few goods. Right now, we have both scenarios of this equation playing out. Too much money (remember the paragraph above where we reference how much money households are holding?) chasing too few goods caused by supply chain disruptions. The basic recipe for inflation is in place. You also compound this by the base of comparison; inflation was next to nothing in 2020, teetering on the verge of deflation because no one was spending money. This is called demand-pull inflation for you economics nerds out there. There is also cost-push inflation happening and wages rising for lower income households. This also increases the price of goods and services (higher costs pushing prices higher).

So if low interest rates (cheap borrowing) and government stimulus has put money into our hands to spend and cause inflation, higher interest rates (more expensive borrowing) and no more government handouts should start to take money out of our hands for spending and therefore slowing the rate we buy things. With less demand comes lower prices or at least prices that rise at a slower pace. This is a long and slow process though. These moves by the Federal Reserve do not accomplish the task overnight. Higher interest rates take months to years to filter their way into the economy and slow inflation. Other forces may be present to help curb inflation in the new year as well. Our basis of comparison is going to rise steadily throughout 2022 and supply chain disruptions should start to ease.

Stocks are expensive.  Is now a bad time to buy?

Stocks were expensive at the start of last year too, but if you avoided the S&P 500 last year then you missed out on over 28% of returns. Valuations are not everything when it comes to stock returns, and trying to time the market rarely works in investors’ favor. We are not market timers, but we do monitor the yield curve, leading economic indicators, and various commentary resources for determining our outlook for equities and bonds. Right now, our signals are still saying neutral stocks to bonds. Our research has also found that forward market performance is not correlated highly with P/E ratios.

The below chart shows how uncorrelated valuations are as a short term indicator. Sometimes, with this reading as of November 30th, the market has been up 20-40% (gray dots above the orange line in the left hand chart) one year out and sometimes it has been down 20-30% (gray dots below the orange line in the left hand chart).  Five year forward returns were all positive and in most cases positive by more than 5-6%.

International valuations are the opposite story and have been for a long time too, yet they continue to underperform.  We continue to hold them as part of the allocation because of the compelling valuation story and importance of diversification. This chart is interesting because it shows how long you can be wrong making an investment call purely on valuation. The ACWI ex-US looked like a good deal versus the U.S. 10 years ago and we know how that story has ended.

The final thing we would like you to remember if you find yourself asking “is now a bad time to buy?” is that if your portfolio is diversified, then large U.S. stocks will only make up a portion of your portfolio. In a diversified 60/40 portfolio for instance, S&P 500 stocks might only make up ¼ of your total portfolio. The other asset classes should provide different return streams or even buffer the portfolio in the event of a U.S. stock market decline. Stick to your plan, rebalance according to it, and avoid making all-in or all-out decisions that could impair your financial future.

Looking forward to 2022

We should start to see interest rates increase and, therefore, we are favoring shorter duration bonds in portfolios for now. We want to continue to let your bonds be bonds and your stocks be stocks. Bonds continue to be an important portion of your portfolio to serve as a volatility dampener while we leave our equities free to generate returns needed to achieve your financial planning goals.

The CDC is relaxing quarantine guidelines as more and more information becomes known about transmutability of the virus. This should serve to start relaxing supply chain disruptions caused by virus spikes hopefully alleviating the transitory portion of inflation. Part of the reason the U.S. performed so strongly in 2021 was a continuation of the re-opening story. We resisted further economic shutdowns despite new waves of Covid outbreaks. Overseas was a different story as outbreaks brought continued sporadic shutdowns. As immunities build and the virus continues to (hopefully) evolve into weaker strains, we should see less of this supporting stronger rallies with overseas markets.

If you are interested in hearing more about our forward-looking views, join us in February for our Economic and Investment Outlook Event. Stay tuned for details in the upcoming weeks.

Remember, we are here to help you meet your investment goals, so feel free to reach out to the investment team or your planner anytime for support. On behalf of the entire Center Team, we wish you a wonderful 2022.

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.